Bronson Arroyo agrees to two-year contract extension

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

All I've seen is throwing stuff at the wall to see if it will stick while preaching good pitching and defense.

Both have improved in the past 366 days.

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I agree with BuckEye that yesterday's deal was a "huge gamble." But the Harang deal was also a "huge gamble." Most times you sign a pitcher for the long-term it is a huge gamble. The Mets signed Pedro -- huge gamble. The Cubs signed Lily -- huge gamble.

The problem is that, unless you take the gamble some time, you are constantly in a frantic search for pitching. So you bite the bullet on occasion, go for it, and try to buy a good insurance policy to protect against injury.

Everybody seems very sure that Harang will be better than Arroyo going forward. But their numbers last year overall were amazingly similar. Harang is a bit more of a strikeout pitcher, to his advantage. Arroyo was far more effective than Harang at GABP, to Bronson's advantage. And both were used heavily -- hard to say which of the two will hold up better with continued heavy use.

You have to commit to someone at some point. These guys are in their prime, no arm injuries, workhorses, successful. I think WK was right to sign em.

I've got more faith in Harang but I'm very happy Bronson was also signed LT. Great moves by WK. These were moves that had to be made.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by westofyou

True... but you heard?

The plan keeps coming up again
The plan means nothing stays the same

I'm wary, history is a tough master, take the 1970 Reds proposed starters.

Maloney - 29
Merritt - 26
McGlothlin - 26
Nolan - 21
Simpson - 21

But...

The plan won't accomplish anything
If it's not implemented
Like it's always been

The 1970 Reds beat Pythag by 11 games and three of those starters munched alot of innings. Not too mention the rubber arm of Clay Carroll.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Reds Nd2

But...

The plan won't accomplish anything
If it's not implemented
Like it's always been

The 1970 Reds beat Pythag by 11 games and three of those starters munched alot of innings. Not too mention the rubber arm of Clay Carroll.

Yep, but at the end of the year they were a mess.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Weigh that against his regression back to the mean (due to odds catching up to him or just not clicking with DP), and it is a risk that the Reds decided was worth taking.

After seeing the money involved, $9.5 million in 2009 and $11 million in 2010, I'm beginning to warm up to this extension. While the bonus in 2008 and the buy out are real money, they won't count against the payroll going forward. I'm beginning to think that it's a risk worth taking.

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Wanna bet that the at least 1 or 2 agents got called today and were notified that the Reds were being added to that particular player's "OK to trade me there" list?

My guess is, not as many as one would think. And if they did, they are most likely of the Neifirific variety that the Reds would do themselves a favor by avoiding in the first place.

[Reds Nd2]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Yep, but at the end of the year they were a mess.

They only had one losing season in the next eleven years though. Too bad there wasn't a wild card back in the day.

[westofyou]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...cleid=5862#CIN

Signed RHP Aaron Harang to a four-year, $36.5 million contract. [2/6]

Signed RHP Bronson Arroyo to a two-year, $25 million contract extension through 2010, with an $11 millioin club option for 2011. [2/8]

I know I've picked on Wayne Krivsky for a lot of things this winter, but relatively speaking, those are niggling details next to the investment the team's new ownership has made in its top tandem of quality starters. There's also the human angle to it, of course, where Arroyo gets a payday to help him overcome feeling chuffed over last year's contract he signed and home he bought in Boston, anticipating that the Red Sox really wanted him. Harang doesn't come with any of that drama, but whatever your particular favorite flavor of support-neutral statistic, Harang and Arroyo were among the top 15 starters in baseball, and PECOTA seems pretty sanguine about the Reds getting value over the lives of those deals. If these sorts of things work out, it's not hard to envision Cincinnati resuming its place on the short list of the country's best baseball cities as far as fan support, a well-run franchise, and a product worth the fans' investments of time, passion, and moolah.

[vaticanplum]

That BP write-up is a pretty good overview of an assessment. Any sportswriter who uses the word "chuffed" jumps a few percentage points in my book.

[Eric_Davis]

A couple of years ago I wrote that Cincinnati is one of the few baseball cities in the U. S. where you can't sugar-coat the franchise. I wrote that the strike of '94 soured this town on baseball more than any other. The proof in that was the poor turnout during the '95 playoff season, even during the playoffs. You could barely give tickets away to the series against the Braves.

But with a tradition going back literally to the end of the Andrew Johnson administration, and Opening Day still a Major Holiday in the area, signings like these will bring fans to the stands more than one-year wonder signings like Neagle, et al.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

It's funny. The front office really hasn't done much for 2007, but these last two signings and the upcoming draft have really gotten me excited about the future of this organization.

We'll see how the draft goes down, but at least with these signings I see somewhat of a vision in place and 2007 will be interesting if for nothing more than viewing it as a stepping stone to future success.

[remdog]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

It's funny. The front office really hasn't done much for 2007, but these last two signings and the upcoming draft have really gotten me excited about the future of this organization.

It'll be interesting to see the fans' reaction if:

A. The Reds have a bad season in '07 but Harang and/or Arroyo pitch like vintage wine

or

B. The Reds have a bad season in '07 and Harang and/or Arroyo get pounded like $2.00 beefsteak.

Rem

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Let's say he doesn't get hurt and he equals his career year of 2006 for the next two years. Wouldn't you think 2 years at 25M would be pretty steep?

If we did not sign Arroyo to an extension, and he had 2 more seasons where he lead the major leagues in innings pitched and posted an ERA in the low 3's, what sort of contract would he get?

I'd suggest something better than Zito got, because Zito didn't come close to what you are suggesting.

Meche types are getting $55 over 5 years. If Arroyo continues to produce, he would get a fortune. If Arroyo pitches 200 innings per seaon and gets an ERA around 4-4.25, he'd get a 4 year, $40-50M contract.

[VR]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

That BP write-up is a pretty good overview of an assessment. Any sportswriter who uses the word "chuffed" jumps a few percentage points in my book.

That's pretty funny. I was going to give him props for using 'sanguine'. That's a purdy werd in my book.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Bad move, considering Arroyo is about ready to turn into a Pumpkin. He should have been let go after the 2008 season if not traded earlier.

Krivsky is truly planless. His only plan seems to be: Wait to Homer Bailey gets here, the fun will really begin then!!!! Poor Homer.

Of course finding a lefty for 2008 should be Krivsky's priority, but he is probably just counting on Travis Wood lol.

When does the new GM count on the former GMs's prospects to throw you over the top?

I nailed this. Wiry,small pitchers don't last long. I think 2006 was like 99, the weak got tricked in(last time Jimbo, this time Cast) and taken for a ride.

Bronson also represents 20+ million of debt the Reds must hold through 2010.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I was money.

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

My worthless opinion on the Arroyo signing....

I like the Harang deal a lot, but I'm not buying into the hype of the Arroyo deal. On one side, it shows that the team is committed to some form of stability, which I dig, but on the other, it's quite a bit of money for a guy that may have peaked in 2006.

If I have the numbers right, Bronson was due to make 8 million over the next two years and then enter his first year of free agency in 2009. 4M per year is very inexpensive for a quality pitcher like Arroyo. Now with this deal, we have extended him two years, essentially buying his first two years of free agency for 25M.

Let's say he doesn't get hurt and he equals his career year of 2006 for the next two years. Two years where we were paying him roughly 8M (4M per). Now, let's say we didn't re-sign him yesterday. So now 2009 comes along and he's a Free Agent. Wouldn't you think 2 years at 25M would be pretty steep? And that's after you get to watch him for two more years to judge whether he's worthy. Yesterday's deal is a huge gamble. Not only is it a ton of money. It's a ton of money for a guy who could have peaked in 2006 and has been overworked. 25M would also make it hard to deal him. We may have to eat some dough, if necessary, just to unload him.

I'll be happy to be wrong with my concerns if he can match 2006 for the next 4+ years. I just don't think an organization that already screwed itself with the Milton deal, two years ago, can afford this high of a gamble again, with such a limited payroll.

Arroyo went from being a great value (4M per) which a cost-conscience organizaion such as the Reds desperately needs, to being just another one of those expensive question marks (see: Gil Meche) that potentially could evolve into an expensive mistake (see: Eric Milton).

As for Harang, it was a no-brainer. He is a horse and a great foundation to build the staff around. And we got him cheap. A+ for signing him longterm at such a great value. C- for the Arroyo deal. It wasn't necessary, but I understand it might have bought some goodwill with the Reds faithful However, the Milton deal was made for that exact purpose as well.