Are you thinking what I'm thinking? (Lohse's loss = Bailey's gain?)

[RedEye]

I know, I know... it's too early to post this. Problem is, I simply can't resist. The recent turn of events was simply too tempting to speculate about. See if you follow my logic...

Intrasquad game:

* Bailey pitches the first game of the season, indicating that either a) the coaches are going in alphabetical order or b) he is the "Josh Hamilton" of the pitching staff (i.e., they really want to see what he can do and whether they can rationalize keeping him on the ML roster).

* Bailey dominates a line-up of ML hitters for one inning, prompting Adam Dunn and Scott Hatteberg to be "on his bandwagon" (along with the coaches?)

Today:

* Lohse, who is supposed to be toning down his arsenal to a simplified fastball-change-up combo, promptly beans his old friend Torii Hunter in the head. This gives Dick Pole and Jerry Narron pause to question whether Kyle "knows how to play the game" and whether he "has what it takes" to man the 4th starter spot.

* Lohse strains his right hamstring, casting further doubt on whether he will be effective in the near future--and opening the possibility of more starting nods for one... Homer Bailey?

With this evidence in hand, I ask you all, fellow Reds fans: are you thinking what I'm thinking?

1 - Harang
2 - Arroyo
3 - Milton
4 - Saarloos
5 - Bailey

[dougdirt]

I think you are reaching at this point. Even if Lohse falls apart, I think Elizardo would also have to fall apart along with Belisle before I honestly think Bailey is going to get the #5 spot.

[pedro]

I wouldn't be surprised if Bailey makes the team. He'll have to be lights out all spring to make it happen though.

[Always Red]

1.I don't think Bailey dominated; though he did pitch well. I'd like to see Homer pitch about 2 months in AAA, then if he's pitching well, bring him up and bump off whoever is not pitching well in the starting 5 (Milty or Lohse, most probably)

2.Lohse was just signed to a big contract; he's going to be in the rotation (unless he's moved to the closer's role- which I think he was built for).

3. I love your enthusiasm, but it is kind of early!

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

Originally Posted by Always Red

1.I don't think Bailey dominated; though he did pitch well. I'd like to see Homer pitch about 2 months in AAA, then if he's pitching well, bring him up and bump off whoever is not pitching well in the starting 5 (Milty or Lohse, most probably)

2.Lohse was just signed to a big contract; he's going to be in the rotation (unless he's moved to the closer's role- which I think he was built for).

3. I love your enthusiasm, but it is kind of early!

MY ONLY BEEF IS WHAT IF HE IS NOT PITCHING WELL IN THE MINORS. WOULDN'T THAT BE WORSE FOR HIM CONFIDENCE WISE THAN IF HE STRUGGLED IN THE BIGS? Sorry about the caps

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Always Red

3. I love your enthusiasm, but it is kind of early!

I guess I just want something about this team to be enthusiastic about... and right now I'm liking the idea of having Hamilton and Bailey to root for. Watch for the sequel to this post, coming soon to a forum near you:

Are you thinking what I'm thinking? (Conine's loss = Hamilton's gain?)

Anyway, thanks for putting up with me. Who wants some popcorn?

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Always Red

2.Lohse was just signed to a big contract; he's going to be in the rotation (unless he's moved to the closer's role- which I think he was built for).

I guess the question is whether or not the contract is so big that Lohse falls under the Eric Milton clause of "start unless you body gives out" or whether he is just assured of a significant pitching role of some sort (long relief stopper? closer, as you say?) Of course, I suppose if he is relegated to the bullpen, Lohse might throw a tantrum like he did in Minnesota... unsuspecting batters beware!

[buckeyenut]

Quite frankly, I don't want him to bump Lohse. I think Lohse has more upside than Milton and Saarloos.

I'd like to see Bailey dominate AAA until one of the starters gets hurt (which is inevitable) and then see him take a slot in the rotation for good at that point with everyone else playing musical chairs.

I think it could be interesting to see how this plays out.

Milton is the cagey vet in a contract year, who if healthy, could put up solid (not spectacular) numbers. Definitely fourth or fifth starter worthy, although not 9M worthy. I also think that if he is not 100% he could be supersucky.

Lohse has the raw talent to be a front of the rotation guy, maybe best stuff on roster behind bailey. But he has yet to harness it and doesn't really know how to pitch. Does he finally mature? Does the new pitching coach help him get over the hump? Or does he continue to be up and down all year.

Saarloos has that awesome sinker and will get the standard AL to NL bump in his numbers. I could very easily see him putting up Bronson Arroyo type numbers for the first couple of months. I could also see him at some point reverting to the mean and ending the season at 5th starter type numbers. And I could also see him flaming out completely.

The Lizard did nice work last year till his last 5 starts or so. He is young and continuing to improve. That said, I don't think the brass is enamored with him and he does not have dominating stuff in the slightest. He gets by on knowing how to pitch, or at least that is my perception. The deck is always stacked against guys like that until they break through.

Bailey is the wunderkind. There is clearly a plan for him to be in AAA this year, at least to start. Does he ruin the plan? Can he do anything in spring training that would impress the brass enough to get them to rethink things? Would it be good for his development if he did? Personally, I would love to see home spend 2 months in AAA, then get called up to take a middle relief spot in the pen for the rest of the year. Then he slides into the rotation full time next spring taking Milton's spot. IMO this is the best way to handle young pitchers, the Minnesota Twins technique. It does a couple of things. First, it limits his innings for the year. That is key as it allows you to manage the increase on that young arm. Second, it gets him a taste of major league hitters in a safe environment. Get him out there in the pen talking pitching with all those vets we have hanging around and get him in games in spots where he can succeed. Third, it allows him to have some early success. He has a plus plus fastball and a plus curve right now. That is all he needs to be dominant in the pen. The rotation needs that third pitch. So he can have some success at the ML level, build up his confidence and help the team at the same time. Especially if we are in a pennant race, I think this works best for everyone involved.

So net, I don't think this injury impacts things at all. I think Lohse will be fine in a week and in the rotation when we break camp. and I think Lohse, Milton and Saarloos round out the rotation, pretty much no matter what.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think you are reaching at this point. Even if Lohse falls apart, I think Elizardo would also have to fall apart along with Belisle before I honestly think Bailey is going to get the #5 spot.

The Lizard needs to have talent to actually fall apart. That kid should be done with the Reds, as far as I'm concerned.

As for Belisle, they've never given him a legitimate shot in the rotation, so why should that start now?

As to Lohse "not knowing how to play the game the right way" b/c he beaned Torii Hunter in the head, I would think that's the complete opposite. Far too many pitchers this day and age are afraid to pitch inside and own the inside part of the plate. Hitting batters is just a byproduct of pitching inside.

[RANDY IN INDY]

As to Lohse "not knowing how to play the game the right way" b/c he beaned Torii Hunter in the head, I would think that's the complete opposite. Far too many pitchers this day and age are afraid to pitch inside and own the inside part of the plate. Hitting batters is just a byproduct of pitching inside.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

As to Lohse "not knowing how to play the game the right way" b/c he beaned Torii Hunter in the head, I would think that's the complete opposite. Far too many pitchers this day and age are afraid to pitch inside and own the inside part of the plate. Hitting batters is just a byproduct of pitching inside.

I was actually being facetious when I put in that quote. I just enjoy making fun of Narron et al. using the same quote to describe every fricking situation. Seriously though, I don't think beaning Torii Hunter in the first spring training game should qualify as evidence that Lohse knows what he's doing. Frankly, it just strikes me as irresponsible.

[cacollinsmba]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I was actually being facetious when I put in that quote. I just enjoy making fun of Narron et al. using the same quote to describe every fricking situation. Seriously though, I don't think beaning Torii Hunter in the first spring training game should qualify as evidence that Lohse knows what he's doing. Frankly, it just strikes me as irresponsible.

Torii's quote:

"This was my last night game in Fort Myers," Hunter said. "I can't see. There's not enough lighting. It's always been that way. I was waiting on the pitch and then, boom! I've never been hit in the head. I thought the ball was going to break, but it didn't. It just got away from him. It wasn't intentional."

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap;_y...302109&prov=ap

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I was actually being facetious when I put in that quote. I just enjoy making fun of Narron et al. using the same quote to describe every fricking situation. Seriously though, I don't think beaning Torii Hunter in the first spring training game should qualify as evidence that Lohse knows what he's doing. Frankly, it just strikes me as irresponsible.

Ridiculous statement. Pitching inside is part of the game. Occasionally one gets away from you. Irresponsible? Only if intentional, and it wasn't.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

The Lizard needs to have talent to actually fall apart. That kid should be done with the Reds, as far as I'm concerned.

As for Belisle, they've never given him a legitimate shot in the rotation, so why should that start now?

I have to disagree with you Elizardo Ramirez. Is he ever going to be Aaron Harang? No, he isnt. Ramirez is mainly a control guy, but he has very good control, a low 90s fastball and decent offspeed stuff. He can however be a good pitcher to have at the back of the rotation. In todays game, you are probably never going to have 5 starters with ERA's under 4.25..... Its just not going to happen.

Elizardo month by month

April
2 starts (both quality starts)
13 innings
9 strikeouts
1.15 WHIP
3.46 ERA

May
4 starts, 1 relief appearance
22 innings
15 strikeouts
1.59 WHIP
4.50 ERA

June
6 Starts
37.1 innings
25 strikeouts
1.10 WHIP
4.10 ERA

July
4 starts
23.2 innings
15 strikeouts
1.44 WHIP
4.56 ERA

Here is where things went wrong for him.

August
8 innings
5 strikeouts
9 walks
3.38 WHIP
19.14 ERA
He then went on the disabled list with shoulder problems.

Take out August when he was obviously hurt and what did EZ do last year for the Reds?
97 innings
64 strikeouts (5.94/9)
18 walks (1.67/9)
1.27 WHIP
4.17 ERA
Also that came when the guy was 23 years old. If you cant find the value in that, I dont know what to tell you, but outside of 8 innings in August Elizardo Ramirez was very valuable for this team.

Now as for Belisle, I think he would get a chance before Bailey simply becuase I think Wayne really wants Homer in Louisville for a little bit this season, which since Belisle is in the discussion as the #5, pushes him ahead of Homer. Just my opinion though, could be totally wrong.

[WMR]

We need more pitchers willing to go inside and brush somebody back on occassion. The more-or-less emasculated dozen or so hurlers we've had the past few years has been maddening.