Baseball America Top 100 Prospects. 4 Reds

[Nugget]

The issue I see with the REDSZONE problems with Stubbs is the same as with Gonzo. The REDS have been an all offense team and have been blessed with some above average offense in the key defensive positions. But if you look at the historical prototypical SS and CF, they aren't your Larkin, Griffey, Jeter types but your Dave Concepcions and Mike Camerons.

[cincyinco]

Originally Posted by M2

I think those teams plus the Dodgers and Braves tend to get their prospects overrated. That said, I'd sure love to have Pelfrey, Ellsbury and Tabata in the Reds' system.

Gimme Kershaw too.. he looks like a gem to me.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Gimme Kershaw too.. he looks like a gem to me.

Heck, give me Kershaw and you can keep the other 3.

[cincyinco]

Dont forget Fmart... I normally agree that the "major" markets get overhyped prospects, but Tabata, Fmart, Kershaw are 3 that I believe to be nothing but legit outside of Hughes.

[Outshined_One]

NYY/NYM/BOS minor league guys I'm fine with rankings-wise:

Phil Hughes (might be a tad overrated, but aside from Homer, I can't think of a potentially better pitching prospect right now)
Humberto Sanchez (weight issues concern me, but he's been well-thought of since his DET days)
Daniel Bard (I liked him coming out of college, should be fun to see howhe develops)

That's pretty much about it. Everyone else I either think should be lower on the list or shouldn't be on the list to begin with.

[blumj]

Originally Posted by Outshined_One

NYY/NYM/BOS minor league guys I'm fine with rankings-wise:

Phil Hughes (might be a tad overrated, but aside from Homer, I can't think of a potentially better pitching prospect right now)
Humberto Sanchez (weight issues concern me, but he's been well-thought of since his DET days)
Daniel Bard (I liked him coming out of college, should be fun to see howhe develops)

That's pretty much about it. Everyone else I either think should be lower on the list or shouldn't be on the list to begin with.

I think Clay Buchholz is going to really surprise some people. I actually don't like the Bard ranking, throw a professional pitch or show me an off-speed pitch worth discussing.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not exactly. Batting average isnt everyting. Everything points to Stubbs having very good plate discipline. If he can draw walks and keep his on base percentage at a decent clip, say .350, then his is quite valuable.

Also this on Jay Bruce from the Baseball America chat

Q: Edabbs44 from RedsZone.com asks:
Could you explain this statement about Jay Bruce: "Beat out Maybin and Upton for top-prospect honors in the Midwest League last summer" And then you guys ranked Upton and Maybin higher than Bruce here? Were the Midwest rankings done by sources outside of BA?

A: Jim Callis:
They're different lists. I did the Midwest League, and those rankings are at least mildly influenced by how the player did in the context of the league. I also voted for Bruce ahead of Maybin and Upton, but my BA cohorts didn't share the same opinion.

Nice job edabbs. I asked a very similar question.

Nothing like some free advertising.

[M2]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Gimme Kershaw too.. he looks like a gem to me.

I prefer Elbert. My guess is Kershaw's the next Greg Miller.

[mbgrayson]

In last years top 100 from BA, the Reds only had 2 players: Bailey at #38, and Bruce at #76. Nice to see the Reds moving up. This, in addition to winning more minor league games last year, is a good sign for coming years.

[Benihana]

I can't believe Stubbs ranks higher than Cueto or Wood. This must be the BA draft-position bias coming out. That said, if Stubbs and AGonz are regular lineup fixtures in 2009, the Reds better be getting very strong offensive production out of every other position.

Jay Bruce, Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto can hopefully all fall into that mold- if they remain with the club, now if we can only get a catcher who can hit. What are the chances David Ross can maintain his level of offensive production from last summer?

[Cedric]

Originally Posted by 15fan

But if he hits .250, he still probably will be a 20-20 guy playing Gold Glove defense in center field. That's a very valuable player.

That sounds like the kind of guy who can have a home in the AL. But in the NL where the pitcher has to bat, that makes 2 of the 9 batters pretty easy outs each time through the lineup. Puts more pressure on the other 7 bats to be high performers.

Sure, but I can't remember a team in my life that had 8 players great at hitting the ball and catching the ball. At Stubbs position you better be willing to give away a teeny bit at the plate for the absolute above average work the guy does in the field.

I'm not surprised that Stubbs got ranked in the top 100. He's probably one of the ten best athletes in the minors that has an actual pedigree of some sort. He's really just gotta ops in the .750 range to be a very valuable player. That makes him in some ways a much riskier project than some made him out to be.

There is still a ton of risk mind you, but he isn't the total raw package.