The Hardball Times Reds Projection

[mth123]

The Hardball Times have projected records for all teams in both leagues. They have based the projection on Wins Above Replacement level with adjustments for playing time, revised rosters, injuries, etc. Its interesting stuff. Check it out. The NL Central looks like this:

Team           Win     Loss    % Chance of winning
St Louis       85      77      37%
Chicago        84      78      32%
Milwaukee      78      84      13%
Houston        75      87      8%
Cincinnati     73      89      5%
Pittsburgh     72      90      4%

They don't say much about the Reds in particular so I guess its up to us to debate why only 73 wins is projected. I'll start.

73 Wins seems about right to me (I actually was thinking 68 or 69). This team will have over 900 innings going to guys not named Harang, Arroyo or Coffey. That is the main problem right now IMO. The offense needs some help either from a Hamilton surprise or a Votto infusion as well. But 900 innings from 5th starter and mop-up man types is a real issue in my view.

Hopefully the team will move on to the next phase by sweeping out the dead wood and giving some younger hopefuls a chance by mid-season.

[Jpup]

The Central will end up like this IMO:

Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Cubs
Astros
Pirates

I don't really have a projection of wins and I could see the Reds finishing anywhere between 1 and 4. I am not at all sold on anything coming from Chicago and the Houston Astros are dog meat. The Cardinals should win by default, but they have their issues. If I was any kind of gambler, I would go with Milwaukee. They look the best to me right now although I haven't really checked on them this spring at all.

I did check out Atlanta and Detroit yesterday and Atlanta looks to have some rough sledding coming this year. Detroit looks poised to win the entire thing.

[oneupper]

Astros have their problems, but I like them better than 8%.
Give me 12-1 odds on the Stros...I'll take them.

[bucksfan2]

I think the central is wide open with the exception of the pirates.

The Cardinals have 2 trump cards in Carpenter and Pujols, but other than those two there are a lot of question marks.

The Cubs have a great offense and if you remember correctly 2 years ago Lee was putting up Pujols type numbers and in the MVP consideration. Their rotation is led by one of the biggest head cases in the game. I think if they start off slow this year they will implode.

The Brewers are dangerous if they can perform to expectatoins and also stay healthy.

The reds also have several questions but do have some potential as well as a wild card in Baily.

And the Pirates are the pirates.

[dougdirt]

Im still going with the Brewers to win this division. I have a bet with a friend that the Brewers finish ahead of the Cardinals this season. I am just praying Ben Sheets can stay healthy this year for them. If he can, I think they take this division easily by 4 games or so.

[Always Red]

I can certainly see how Hardball Times would come up with that win estimate for the Reds.

This team needs to hit better than it did last year. If Junior can stay healthy and embrace RF, that will go a long way to making it happen. This team still needs Junior's bat. Hamilton is a wild card- could be anything from Rookie of the Year to back on skid row again (God forbid). But you just can't count on him, yet. To me, Phillips, Ross and Hatte are all question marks; I wouldn't expect any of them to put up the numbers they did last year, although Phillips has the highest ceiling of this group.

I think this team could literally go anywhere from 1st to last this year. I think the pitching is deeper than last years pitching, in that the Reds have fewer terrible pitchers than they had in 2006.

If Burton is given a chance and can be an effective closer, it would go a long way to making this team, a lot better. Or, to be generous, if Hermanson can step up and do the job. But I'd rather see Burton get the opportunity. From all the pro-Hermanson noise coming out of camp, about how nasty his splitter is, looks like the job will be his to lose. But I think Narron speaks the truth when he says that a closer makes everyone else more comfortable and better in their roles.

Milty's in his walk year; he could respond well, and hopefully earn himself a fresh new contract somewhere else ; but the key to Milty is if his knee holds up. When his knee is healthy and doesn't hurt, he truly is a different pitcher. Lohse could go either way, back in the dumpster, or be this years Arroyo. I think Majewski takes too much heat here; the guy is a good reliever when not hurt. Nope, he's not good enough to be a closer, but when healthy, he's good 8th inning material. Is he healthy, though?

In sum, I see too many question marks for my beloved Redlegs. I wouldn't be too surprised to see this team win 90, if it all comes together, or only in 70, if it all falls apart.

[Falls City Beer]

This team right now (things can change of course) has about a 77 win ceiling, I'd guess.

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

The Cardinals have 2 trump cards in Carpenter and Pujols, but other than those two there are a lot of question marks.

And the Astro's have 2 trump cards in Oswalt and Berkman.

[Strikes Out Looking]

There is no way the Cubs finish the season 11 games higher than the Reds. The NL Central is wide--wide open. Any team that finishes above .500 in division play has a chance of winning the division.

As to the Reds, if things break right, they could win 90 games, if they don't they could lose 90. However, I think that is true of every team in the league, so I am not really persuaded by these projections.

[TeamSelig]

The Astros always have a crappy offense and good pitching.

Don't forget they added Carlos Lee.

[CINCYREDS#1]

just cuz the cubs spent 1000000000 dollars in the offseason doesnt mean they are suddenly gonna be good

[BRM]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

This team right now (things can change of course) has about a 77 win ceiling, I'd guess.

77 win ceiling? You don't have much faith in this pitching staff do you?

[jojo]

I'm waiting to see what the actual 25 man roster is going to look like before I revisit this issue.

[redsmetz]

I wouldn't hazard a guess as to the order of this division other than I think it's safe to say the Bucs will be on the bottom (although I wouldn't bet the house on that either). This division is as wide open as any other division in baseball.

A lot would have to fall right for us to win it, but it's not out of the question. A season like last year's wouldn't surprise me. And I agree with the poster who said it could be the Brewers year. I've said for years that this is not the mediocre division everyone says it is - I think it's probably the most balanced and competitive.

[Bigredfan#1]

Originally Posted by mth123

The Hardball Times have projected records for all teams in both leagues. They have based the projection on Wins Above Replacement level with adjustments for playing time, revised rosters, injuries, etc. Its interesting stuff. Check it out. The NL Central looks like this:

Team           Win     Loss    % Chance of winning
St Louis       85      77      37%
Chicago        84      78      32%
Milwaukee      78      84      13%
Houston        75      87      8%
Cincinnati     73      89      5%
Pittsburgh     72      90      4%

They don't say much about the Reds in particular so I guess its up to us to debate why only 73 wins is projected. I'll start.

73 Wins seems about right to me (I actually was thinking 68 or 69). This team will have over 900 innings going to guys not named Harang, Arroyo or Coffey. That is the main problem right now IMO. The offense needs some help either from a Hamilton surprise or a Votto infusion as well. But 900 innings from 5th starter and mop-up man types is a real issue in my view.

Hopefully the team will move on to the next phase by sweeping out the dead wood and giving some younger hopefuls a chance by mid-season.

Most every expert last year picked the Reds to finish last!! Never know what will happen in Baseball, look at the Tigers last year, no one was picking them!