2007 Ken Griffey Jr. Predictions

[Degenerate39]

I think Griff will have 32 homers this year and play most of the year.

[rotnoid]

I'd take 32 HR's and about 90 RBI. The most important thing though will be if he plays 135+ games.

[Always Red]

OK, I'll say it: 15 HR's, 62 RBI, and 117 games played.

I love JR, but his legs are gone...

[fewfirstchoice]

122 games played
37 homers
107 RBIs
296 avg.
4 errors
7 outfield assits
2 stolen bases

[justincredible]

123 games, 28 HRs, 89 RBIs

[pahster]

.260/.330/.480/.810-ish.

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by pahster

.260/.330/.480/.810-ish.

Ditto

[paintmered]

89 games
.272 AVG
.326 OBP
.482 SLG
16 HR
54 RBI
3 MRIs

All this makes me very sad.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by paintmered

89 games
.272 AVG
.326 OBP
.482 SLG
16 HR
54 RBI
3 MRIs

All this makes me very sad.

seems rather realistic giving his recent history.

I know optimism is high coming in to a new season, that's why I like to look at data that isn't biased by fan loyalty.

PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG

[mth123]

Originally Posted by flyer85

seems rather realistic giving his recent history.

I know optimism is high coming in to a new season, that's why I like to look at data that isn't biased by fan loyalty.

PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG

That looks about right but the rate stats are really volatile here. If those 415 ABs come while playing against everyone until he breaks down I think .275/.344 are a bit high and I wonder about the .506. If Griffey plays strictly against RH while "rested" against LH, he could top those.

[flyer85]

with Deno gone it seems pretty safe to assume that Jr will be out there everyday.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by flyer85

with Deno gone it seems pretty safe to assume that Jr will be out there everyday.

sigh. I feel awful about Deno and the Reds are really short on the bench. The worst part is that it eliminates any hope of a Deno or Freel for a decent pitcher deal. Oh well, at least they could keep Coutlangus. That is one more decent pitcher getting innings than I was counting on.

[AtomicDumpling]

"PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG"

I think the rate stats here are a little high. My guess is .270BA .320OBP and .470SLG.

I think he won't hit too many doubles and that will suppress his SLG%.

415AB seems reasonable, 21HR seems reasonable, and I would guess 80RBI since he will probably bat 4th. He would get more RBI if Phillips bats 5th and Encarnacion 3rd instead of the way Narron has it lined up now.

Griffey will be a below average right fielder, but he was a horrible center fielder in recent years. So the move to right field is way overdue.

As far as getting a good pitcher for Freel -- I don't think that will happen. Freel is popular here for his hustle and grit, but I don't think his stats would merit any team offering us a good pitcher in exchange. He is getting old and his speed and defense are vastly overrated here in Cincy. Last year will turn out to be his career year. I hope I am wrong.

I am excited to see Hamilton play in person. I get the feeling we may see a lot of him due to Freel/Griffey injuries. He could be the out-of-nowhere shot in the arm of 2007 like Brandon Phillips was in 2006. (Maybe I shouldn't use "shot in the arm" and Josh Hamilton in the same sentence?)

[jmac]

Originally Posted by Always Red

OK, I'll say it: 15 HR's, 62 RBI, and 117 games played.

I love JR, but his legs are gone...

"if" JR plays 117 games I would say the #'s should be slightly higher.
Maybe 28/75.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

"PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG"

I think the rate stats here are a little high. My guess is .270BA .320OBP and .470SLG.

I think he won't hit too many doubles and that will suppress his SLG%.

415AB seems reasonable, 21HR seems reasonable, and I would guess 80RBI since he will probably bat 4th. He would get more RBI if Phillips bats 5th and Encarnacion 3rd instead of the way Narron has it lined up now.

Griffey will be a below average right fielder, but he was a horrible center fielder in recent years. So the move to right field is way overdue.

As far as getting a good pitcher for Freel -- I don't think that will happen. Freel is popular here for his hustle and grit, but I don't think his stats would merit any team offering us a good pitcher in exchange. He is getting old and his speed and defense are vastly overrated here in Cincy. Last year will turn out to be his career year. I hope I am wrong.

I am excited to see Hamilton play in person. I get the feeling we may see a lot of him due to Freel/Griffey injuries. He could be the out-of-nowhere shot in the arm of 2007 like Brandon Phillips was in 2006. (Maybe I shouldn't use "shot in the arm" and Josh Hamilton in the same sentence?)

I guess my idea of a good pitcher is different than most and used somewhat loosely in this context. I don't think Freel could bring an established number 3 starter, but I think he could bring a compelling young arm or two. Some one with more upside than say a Kirk Saarloos or Bobby Livingston. Maybe a young guy with promise who has been squeezed out by a team spending on free agents or an undervalued guy stuck in some team's pen. It won't take much to be an upgrade over anyone not named Harang, Arroyo or Bailey right now. I'm just looking for hopeful as opposed to hopeless (Milton or Lohse) or wishful (Livingston or Saarloos). Belisle makes me hopeful somewhat but it would be nice to get some one like him w/o the injury concerns.