Thursday 4-12 minor league updates

[SirFelixCat]

What's the story on Guevara. He was pretty killer/lights out as a relief/closer last year. I never hear him mentioned....

[jmcclain19]

Man I would love it if Paul Janish goes all Brian Roberts on the Reds and forces them to pump him up a few levels. Would say that would significantly help the Reds minor league depth & finally give them a home grown MI option.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Actually, the Reds pitching depth isn't that good. Matter of fact, outside Bailey and Lecure, there really isn't a true "starting" prospects in the upper minors.

In the lower minors, we have several they are working on in Dayton, but that is typical(though a Gonzo could really blowup if his mind is in the right state). Sarasota has 2(Cueto,Wood). The rest are fringe prospects who probably will only have bullpen careers if they make it at some point(Fisher,Avery,Pelland ete).

I will disagree. The Reds system is gathering quality arms and guys with the ability to pitch. Not everyone has to throw 95 to be a quality or promising arm.

Rank in ability: Starter or Closer

The elite: They would be pitchers with great pure stuff
1.Homer Bailey: We all know this guy. He pitched poorly in his opening start, but has exceptional pure stuff which tames hitters(which is why Power gave a thumbs down to the start lol). Just wait to he becomes a better pitcher.
2.Terrell Young: Terrific pure stuff. Still working out command and has battled some minor injuries problems in his brief career. If he puts together a good year in Aball when he returns from EST, he will shoot up the charts as a future closer
3.R.Gonzalez: Only a notch below Bailey with his stuff. Needs to put it together in his head, because the physical tools are exceptional.
Outlook: I would be more excited if Young and Gonzalez were farther ahead. Being that Bailey is the only one that has really progressed at this point, puts a damper on the Reds high ceiling talents

While Bailey was far from good, I don't think he pitched poorly. Mediocre is more like it. He was as they say 'wildly effective'.

The Good: These would be pitchers with good pure stuff
1.Johnny Cueto: Short, stocky pitcher with a good arm. Has started off slow, but probably will heat up before long
2.Brandon Watson: Krivsky's first pitching draft pick has a good deal of talent, and may move quickly through the system. Though, I wonder if he will ever pitch again lol?
3.Sam Lecure: Underrated talent that has a similiar build and style to current Red Kyle Lohse. Hopefully he has a little more upstairs
Outlook: Maybe the Reds most optimistic hopes. But none give the Reds a real ace or multiple high ceiling talents in the rotation

Cueto was having blister issues as recently as 6 days ago. I can't say that is why he pitched the way he did or not, but I can't say its not either. If Cueto is still the same guy he was last year, and nothing has shown he isnt, then he is better than 'good'. Who is Brandon Watson? I know who Sean Watson is, and know that is who you are talking about but now I am just nitpicking. He has a lot to prove, but his pitches are there. Lecure doesn't have the stuff that Lohse does. Lohse throws 95.... I doubt Lecure has hit that even once. That said, I like Lecure a lot, and he probably belongs in the 'good' category.

The average: These pitchers either don't have the good arm or pitches
1.Travis Wood: His stock has undoubtly dropped since his 05 high. Though a lefty with a great changeup and average fb/cb can have alot of success in the majors.
2.Fisher: Good arm, no pitches at all.
3.Avery: See Fisher
4.Jordon Smith: See Fisher, Avery
5.Tyler Pelland: See Fisher,Avery,Smith
Outlook: Not a overly deep group. I question whether Fisher,Avery,Pelland or Smith will ever become starters, but maybe closer potential down the road.

1.Wood is regaining some velocity. He was reportedly hitting 92 in ST about 3 weeks after it started. With his change up that is probably the best change in the minor leagues and his fastball he is better than average. Toss in the fact that he is a lefty and he gets even more of a nod.
2. Fisher has a FB that gets upward of 94 MPH and gets a crapload of groundballs and has a very good slider. He also has a very young arm for his age considering he was only a pitcher starting about halfway through his sophomore year in college.
3. I am not as sold on Avery as I am with Fisher. He has a good fastball that also has hit 94 before and the Reds sure seem to like him a lot but I guess maybe I just haven't seen enough of him to form a full opinion of his secondary stuff.
4. Smith also has a good FB that sits 91-94 and has touched 96, but his secondary stuff is still in question. His slider was said to have gotten better last year than it was in college, but having not seen it I cant say much about it.
5. Pelland has a good FB. Everything else is a big question mark. He has a curveball that is really good, but its about as consistant as Shaq is at making 2 straight free throws. However lefties that throw 93-95 dont grow on trees.

The rest of the lot: middle relievers at best and I don't count sub-A ball yet(so no Ravin Doug ).

Give Ravin time, he will show something... but I get your point. However Phil Dumatrait not making your list is a little strange given that he is throwing upwards of 93 this season (and if he can keep throwing that hard I bet it really shows in his numbers this season). Livingston, while I am not sold on him also didn't make your list despite holding his own in ST and pitching decently so far in AAA.

Now, if Bailey, Gonzo and Young make big moves up the ladder this year while prospects like Cueto,Lecure and Watson succeed with another draft, the Reds 2008 minors pitching depth may actually begin to look better than the average MLB franchise. Because that is all it is right now.

I will tell you what, as of right now I rank the Reds top 15 starters like this:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Travis Wood
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Sam Lecure
5. Sean Watson
6. Josh Ravin
7. Carlos Fisher
8. Bobby Livingston
9. Phil Dumatrait
10. Tyler Pelland
11. Rafael Gonzalez
12. James Avery
13. Jordan Smith
14. Daryl Thompson
15. Brandon Rice

Now if my #10 starting pitcher is a lefty who sits 91-93 and hits 95 with a curveball that at times can be a plus pitch and is 23 years old all season in AA then it really tells me that the system is a little better off pitching wise than most. Of course even if you flip flop a bunch of those guys around, I bet most are still in the top 10 of most anyone on here and all have solid things to say about them and while most have question marks.... well that is why they are minor leaguers and not major leaguers.

Maybe I am looking at it completely wrong, but I think the Reds pitching depth is quite solid.

[Aronchis]

"Now if my #10 starting pitcher is a lefty who sits 91-93 and hits 95 with a curveball that at times can be a plus pitch and is 23 years old all season in AA then it really tells me that the system is a little better off pitching wise than most".

Easy there Doug. Pelland's curveball is hardly plus which is his problem. You just sit on his fastball because he can not throw anything easy for strikes or strikeouts. At some point, the endgame has to come with this starting jig and a jump to the bullpen is unavoidable. He will finish off his development faster in the minors and the Reds could use a lefty that throws over 90

I will gladly admit if Pelland starts dominating AA however, that I may be wrong. But he put up 9.00k/9 in high A and that swooned last year as the more advanced AA hitters don't fear 95mph fastballs. He hasn't started to quick this year.

[JaxRed]

Good analysis Dirt

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Great stuff guys. Love the info. Doug, could you post the link to your site?

Also, just curious, but is there something wrong with Camilo Vazquez that he didn't make your top 15? I'm just wondering if you could fill me in. One more thing. What is it that you don't like about T. Young, as I see Aronchis has him in his top 3?

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sarasota won 3-1.
Roenicke (S, 4)

Ahh, nice to see my sleeper pick is getting a good start.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

"Now if my #10 starting pitcher is a lefty who sits 91-93 and hits 95 with a curveball that at times can be a plus pitch and is 23 years old all season in AA then it really tells me that the system is a little better off pitching wise than most".

Easy there Doug. Pelland's curveball is hardly plus which is his problem. You just sit on his fastball because he can not throw anything easy for strikes or strikeouts. At some point, the endgame has to come with this starting jig and a jump to the bullpen is unavoidable. He will finish off his development faster in the minors and the Reds could use a lefty that throws over 90

I will gladly admit if Pelland starts dominating AA however, that I may be wrong. But he put up 9.00k/9 in high A and that swooned last year as the more advanced AA hitters don't fear 95mph fastballs. He hasn't started to quick this year.

Easy there Aronchis. I said when its on its a plus pitch... and I also said in another thread the problem with it is that its about as consistant as Shaq making 2 straight free throws* see edit*. The good things is, he can spin a plus curveball, which means he has that ability.... he just needs to work with the coaches to get it right. While guys can sit on his fastball this is where the team needs to step in and go 2005 Homer Bailey on him and mandate that he throw his offspeed stuff a specific number of times to get better with it.
As for him not being off to a good start.... he isnt off to a bad one, that is for sure.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Great stuff guys. Love the info. Doug, could you post the link to your site?

Also, just curious, but is there something wrong with Camilo Vazquez that he didn't make your top 15? I'm just wondering if you could fill me in. One more thing. What is it that you don't like about T. Young, as I see Aronchis has him in his top 3?



Ahh, nice to see my sleeper pick is getting a good start.

Young has a power arm... but he has been in the system for 3 years and thrown a total of 48 innings, none as a starter. My list was all starters. Vazquez was actually #16 on the list for me. I debated a while with myself between him and Brandon Rice but went with Rice in the end.

As for my site, check out my signature it is in there.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Easy there Aronchis. I said when its on its a plus pitch... and I also said in another thread the problem with it is that its about as consistant as Shaq making 2 straight free throws* see edit*. The good things is, he can spin a plus curveball, which means he has that ability.... he just needs to work with the coaches to get it right. While guys can sit on his fastball this is where the team needs to step in and go 2005 Homer Bailey on him and mandate that he throw his offspeed stuff a specific number of times to get better with it.
As for him not being off to a good start.... he isnt off to a bad one, that is for sure.

Well, from a ERA perspective but not for a h/9 or k/9 which are important stats IMO. Though Andrew Miller, a level below Pelland hasn't started off any better though. So maybe he will finally blow up and along with Bailey, they will embrace the Reds rotation next year. But not looking good right now from Pelland's pov.

[OnBaseMachine]

Doug, any idea what Rice's stuff is like? I haven't heard what he throws.