Interesting Zito stat

[RadfordVA]

I for one would have to say zito is underpaid if anything. One of the crazier stats I have ever seen is zito's record with run production. Of course he didn't help things by going to the giants who have problems scoring. If anyone can look at these numbers and say he is overrated they are crazy. Think of the record he would have with decent run support. Here are some stats coming into this year. Taken from ny daily news.

Known as a pitcher who will give his team every chance to win each of his starts, he logged a 15-1 personal record in 23 starts with run support of two or more in 2006. In fact, Zito has fashioned a 29-3 ledger (.906) in 44 starts with support of two or more runs during the 2005-06 seasons. In 108 career starts with at least four runs of support, he has produced an 85-4 mark (.955).

[Falls City Beer]

Zito will be a big part of the Giants taking the West. Mark it down.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by RadfordVA

I for one would have to say zito is underpaid if anything. One of the crazier stats I have ever seen is zito's record with run production. Of course he didn't help things by going to the giants who have problems scoring. If anyone can look at these numbers and say he is overrated they are crazy. Think of the record he would have with decent run support.

I don't think it's really accurate to suggest Zito suffered from a lack of run support in 2005-2006.

Zito run support (ave per 27) 2005: 4.95; AL ave 2005: 4.76

Zito run support (ave per 27) 2006: 4.44; AL ave 2006: 4.97

This is especially true considering that he's pitched a majority of his starts in the AL west which is populated with pitcher's parks in Oakland, Anahiem and Seattle. Oakland is going to score fewer runs just because of the environments they play in. Even so, Zito's runs support is basically league average. I don't think he can complain.

Originally Posted by RadfordVA

Here are some stats coming into this year. Taken from ny daily news.

Known as a pitcher who will give his team every chance to win each of his starts, he logged a 15-1 personal record in 23 starts with run support of two or more in 2006. In fact, Zito has fashioned a 29-3 ledger (.906) in 44 starts with support of two or more runs during the 2005-06 seasons. In 108 career starts with at least four runs of support, he has produced an 85-4 mark (.955).

Clearly Zito used to be special. But also clearly, the Zito of '00-'03 is a different pitcher than the Zito of '04-'06. Thus, I'm not as interested in his career record as I am in what he's done the last few seasons (after all this thread is more about what he's likely to do in the future rather than what he's done already).

The Daily News splits struck me as being too blunt to be particularly useful. Here's his 2005-2006 seasons broken into a few more run classes (based upon the final scores of Zito's starts):

2005-2006 overall: 69 starts; W-L: 30-23;

'05-'06 w/ 0-1 runs: 17 starts; W-L: 1-16;

'05-'06 w/ 2-4 runs: 19 starts; W-L: 4-7;

'05-'06 w/ 5 or greater runs: 33 starts; W-L: 25-0;

Basically, when looking at his '05 and '06 record a little closer than NY Daily News did, the current version of Zito with his peripherals trending downward, looks more like an innings eater than the ace that the NY Daily News seems to be arguing he is. I just don't see a particularly striking ability to help his team win games other guys wouldn't. I think the Daily News splits were a bit misleading because in reality, Zito's won alot when the As have scored alot of runs. When the As scored under 5 runs, Zito was 5-23 over the last two seasons. When the As scored 5 or more runs, Zito was 25-0. There's really not alot that's special or unique about that....

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Zito will be a big part of the Giants taking the West. Mark it down.

Zito goes 7 1/3 surrendering 4 hits, no runs, and 5 Ks, for his second straight excellent outing, defeating the 2nd place D-Backs and drawing the Giants to .500 after a terrible start to the season.

The Reds couldn't do anything with production like that. That would mean fewer innings from their vaunted bullpen.