Some Tough Bullpen Decisions Loom.

[Stormy]

Originally Posted by Red Leader

Just to be clear, I was answering the question "What do you do in the next 2-3 weeks" that was posed in the original post.

I know, and you were actually playing fair by answering the original question, whereas I was cheating because I simply can't compel myself to look at this team through the prism of the short-term. Krivsky's by-the-numbers approach to this team, and this bullpen in particular, is what has me fearful for the future. I don't think we should be in any hurry to rush Guardado back at this juncture, as I presume his trade value is less than minimal coming off injury, and with such a short period to demonstrate his health. If anything, he stands to decrease Weathers' value, if he impacts Weathers' effectiveness or the numbers Weathers is compiling.

Anything which makes Wayne believe that we're contenders rather than rebuilders, that we're buyers rather than sellers, that the status quo of trying to attain .500 ball rather than trying to design a champion from the ground up, or that we're better off riding the veterans than developing the youngsters... just further prolongs our plight, in my opinion. We're in a terribly weak division, where we can draw to within 5 games, by playing .400 ball (that's frightening). I don't want a GM who doesn't understand our status, and who, at the expense of young talent development, wants to try to ride the vets back into contention, simply because we're within shouting distance of the division leaders (despite our utter ineptitude). Nonetheless, that's what I fear we have on our hands.

Wayne could make a bold statement by delaying the recall of Guardado for a while, by demonstrating his willingness to cut ties with past mistakes, and to part with veterans in favor of putting in the time necessary to develop the youngsters. The current 'prospects' (Coutlangus, Salmon, Burton etc...) need the time to experience a variety of situations (not just mop-up August and September games), and the guys on the horizon (McBeth, Medlock etc...) are going to need the space to get here and eventually audition, as well.

Only then will we know what we have, and what we need... and that *can't* happen, if we vainly devote June, July, (August?) to continually going to the veteran well. And, if the NL Central continues to freefall, we could stay bad, but 'in contention', so long that Wayne decides not to even part with his veterans, much less concede to giving youngsters auditioning time (especially given Narron's veteran predilictions and bullpen usage). That worries me, as we've been down this path before.

Delay the recall of Guardado if he's trying to rush back; be bold enough to part company with experiments that haven't worked (Stanton, Majewski - if he shows no signs of improvement, Santos - if the role can be filled by a youngster etc...); and do all of this with a devotion to a consistent plan that allows for evaluation, development and acquisition of the parts necessary to rebuild a viable young bullpen (and overall team).

P.S. Thanks RedsmanRick, but others would be far more qualified than myself for that GM task (including yourself), but Cyclone (or M2) is a nice place to start.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

I understand why it makes sense, but I don't expect any team to say, "We'll lose 120 games, but at least we'll know more about Burton and Coutlangus."

Unless they're in D.C.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...052902149.html

[Stormy]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

Reds fans to management: "Stop trying to win. Fire the manager -- he's trying to win."

I understand why it makes sense, but I don't expect any team to say, "We'll lose 120 games, but at least we'll know more about Burton and Coutlangus."

I don't equate the call for developing the youngsters, with conceding defeat, or with asking the manager to take a dive. We're not the Boston Celtics trying to swoon our way into the #1 draft pick. My question is: "Why is going with LHP Coutlangus rather than LHP Stanton, akin to not trying to win?" Is there any indication that allowing Mike Stanton, and his 5.40ERA 1.64WHIP, to appear in more games than any reliever on the current roster is the correct path to more wins in the present?

Likewise, last year, this team tossed approximately 270+ IPs to Hammond, White, Michalak, Franklin, Mays, Yan, Burns, Cormier, Mercker, Schoeneweiss, Guardado, almost exclusively in relief, which is the equivalent of more than 1/6th of the entire innings pitched by our staff for the season as a whole (and that excludes the implosions of guys like Majik). That was en route to boasting one of the worst statistical bullpens in recent years, as we 'missed' on at least 2 veteran gambles, for every one we 'hit' on for temporary success. And where did it leave us coming into 2007? With an entire reshuffling rebuild, and one that's arguably faring just as miserably.

A.) This is no way to construct a bullpen, B.) This is no way to utilize a bullpen, and C.) Even if you can squeeze a dozen 'better than league average' IPs out of a veteran flier here and there, there simply is no potential dividend for the future. The message I take from that, is, perhaps the youngsters will take a few knocks here and there in the process of showing whether they belong or not, but the future reward is potentially worth it (as opposed to the current system where there is no future, and the present is last place).

Our last great bullpens were designed via internal promotion and development (Sullivan, Willy), complemented by a few young, select acquisitions in need of major MLB development time (Graves, White, Reyes), and a solid veteran presence or two (Shaw, Belinda etc...). I don't want Narron to lose, I simply want him to develop the best options at our disposal in order to allow us to win at a much better than .389 clip in the future.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Stormy

I don't equate the call for developing the youngsters, with conceding defeat, or with asking the manager to take a dive. We're not the Boston Celtics trying to swoon our way into the #1 draft pick. My question is: "Why is going with LHP Coutlangus rather than LHP Stanton, akin to not trying to win?" Is there any indication that allowing Mike Stanton, and his 5.40ERA 1.64WHIP, to appear in more games than any reliever on the current roster is the correct path to more wins in the present?

Likewise, last year, this team tossed approximately 270+ IPs to Hammond, White, Michalak, Franklin, Mays, Yan, Burns, Cormier, Mercker, Schoeneweiss, Guardado, almost exclusively in relief, which is the equivalent of more than 1/6th of the entire innings pitched by our staff for the season as a whole (and that excludes the implosions of guys like Majik). That was en route to boasting one of the worst statistical bullpens in Reds' history, as we 'missed' on at least 2 veteran gambles, for every one we 'hit' on for temporary success.

A.) This is no way to construct a bullpen, B.) This is no way to utilize a bullpen, and C.) Even if you can squeeze a dozen 'better than league average' IPs out of a veteran flier here and there, there simply is no potential dividend for the future. The message i take from that, is, perhaps the youngsters will take a few knocks here and there in the process of showing whether they belong or not, but the future reward is potentially worth it (as opposed to the current system where there is no future, and the present is last place).

Our last great bullpens were designed via internal promotion and development (Sullivan, Willy), complemented by a few young, select acquisitions (Graves, White, Reyes), and a solid veteran presence or two (Shaw, Belinda etc...).

Going to the youth over the oldsters like Stanton and the flops like Majewski gives you two advantages: 1. likely to improve the bullpen in the present and 2. likely will give management a chance to see who's worth keeping for next season. No one would publically say we're playing for next year, but that's what we should be doing. It would take an insane number of bullseye trades over the next month to get this team into any kind of shape to contend.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Going to the youth over the oldsters like Stanton and the flops like Majewski gives you two advantages: 1. likely to improve the bullpen in the present and 2. likely will give management a chance to see who's worth keeping for next season. No one would publically say we're playing for next year, but that's what we should be doing. It would take an insane number of bullseye trades over the next month to get this team into any kind of shape to contend.

and 3) free up more cash to spend on bench players or another SP.

If almost all of your bullpen is made up of guys making the major league minimum, you've got dollars to spend elsewhere on your roster. You'd have that extra $1-$2 million to spend on the decent backup catcher that no one wants to "pursue" in the offseason. You'd have the extra money to get the backup OFer that many teams aren't showing a lot of attention to until 3-4 weeks before Spring Training starts. That makes your bench, and your team better and more competitive.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Stanton is pretty untradeable considering his age, contract, and...uh..."pitching", if you want to call it that.

A lefty, with playoff experience, and a history of getting guys out...


Somebody might bite.....I'd take an arm in return...no body, just an arm.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

A lefty, with playoff experience, and a history of getting guys out...


Somebody might bite.....I'd take an arm in return...no body, just an arm.

Maybe Doc Hollywood could sew it on to Paul Wilson and we could give him another shot...

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by M2

What makes Majewski guaranteed safe?

I'd say the only safe guy is Burton because Rule V demands he be on the roster (interestingly, he's the only Reds pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA too). Weathers could very well find himself dealt to another team.

It might benefit both Weathers and the Reds to part ways.

The Reds aren't going to compete this year, and I'd be very surprised for next year. I have a feeling Weathers wants to win. (What player doesn't, aside from Eric "I just cash a paycheck" Milton"?)

Send Weathers to a winning team and get a warm body that might help 2-3 years down the road.

[GAC]

I think we really do have some young and talented arms (Weathers and Stanton excluded of course) in this organization (bullpen-wise). They've had a rough go of it in the early part of this season because of their youth and inexperience and needing the IPs, the experience, and learning how to pitch.

It's nice to be in that position of having to make such decisions. Some should be looking voer their shoulders though.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

It might benefit both Weathers and the Reds to part ways.

The Reds aren't going to compete this year, and I'd be very surprised for next year. I have a feeling Weathers wants to win. (What player doesn't, aside from Eric "I just cash a paycheck" Milton"?)

Send Weathers to a winning team and get a warm body that might help 2-3 years down the road.

I agree with this, but given all the struggles of everybody in the central, I just don't see a purge happening yet. The Reds are 3 out of 2nd place and if they could get past the others, they could maintain an illusion of trying to catch Milwaukee. They are 9.5 Games out of 1st in the Central and 11 out of the wild card. I think most on here think its over (I thought so in December) but they just may want to keep up a charade of being competitive through another homestand anyway.

I'm guessing Salmon is going down when Guardado or Bray is ready unless he gets it together and stops walking so many.

As for Weathers, San Francisco may be a place that could be in the market for him. They just unloaded Benitez, his heir apparant Brian Wilson was awful in spring, sent to the minors and is now on the AAA DL. In another thread a Savvy poster (SteelSD) mentioned Jonathon Sanchez as a good target for the Reds. I agree and that got me looking at SF. I had a hope (Inspired by 11BarryLarkin11) over the winter for Kevin Corriea and looking again it seems that SF may just be a good match in general. They have the starting pitching to contend, are not averse to vets, seem to be in win now mode and in addition to Weathers, could probably use a LH bat if Klesko's back puts him out again. My proposal would be Weathers, Maj and Hatte for Sanchez and Kevin Correia. That would open room for Votto at 1B , in the pen for Bray, Guardado, McBeth, etc and bring in two cheap starting candidates in Correia and Sanchez. Correia has already shown to be a decent pen guy if he doesn't crack the rotation. Sanchez was SF's #2 prospect coming into the season and was a total bust in the pen and was sent to AAA. He was a starter up to this year. The Giants could be looking at Sanchez as a reliever in AAA in the thought that he could be the closer fo the future, but they look short in the pen now and he doesn't look anywhere near ready to help them this year and Weathers would help them win now. SF gets Weathers to close or Set-up and Maj adds depth tp replace Correia. Hatte goes back to the Bay area and re-establishes his productive platoon with Aurilia (may not be so productive outside of GABP). Looks like a match made in Heaven. If they would rather have the big bat, I'd include Griffey in place of Hatte if they want. I'd even pay some of the bill for them. SF would be something to watch with Griffey and Bonds putting up milestone HR. Not sure Griffey would go, but it would be a legit chance at the post season for him, he'd help SF, and with Bonds HR chase getting the attention he could probably play in relative anonimity. That and his apparent good relationship with Bonds just may get him to go.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by BRM

Most likely. Coutlangus will get optioned to make room for Bray or Guardado. Three lefties in the pen with Stanton, Bray, and Guardado. Add Coffey, Majewski, Burton, and Weathers and the pen is still terrible.

If Coutlangus gets optioned while Stanton survives then this team is not about winning. Cout is clearly pitching better than Stanton and such a move would be a hard sell to us die hard fans (who are going to be the only ones watching them the rest of this year)

[Marc D]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

It might benefit both Weathers and the Reds to part ways.

The Reds aren't going to compete this year, and I'd be very surprised for next year. I have a feeling Weathers wants to win. (What player doesn't, aside from Eric "I just cash a paycheck" Milton"?)

Send Weathers to a winning team and get a warm body that might help 2-3 years down the road.

Not to get off track but if Milton was just interested in cashing a paycheck he could have ridden the DL as much as he wanted to from the day he signed that deal.

The guy went through a lot of physical pain to keep trying and obviously a lot of embarrassment when he was consistently reminded that he was no longer a good player in front of 20-30 K every night. That's a tough thing for a pro athlete to face.

I don't want to ever see him pitch for us again but I don't have any issue with Miltons effort. Just wanted to make a distinction between ripping him for his lack of performance(I'm all for it and do it often) and questioning his charachter.

[corkedbat]

I feel like this season is toast, so I'm not too concerned about whether they pitch in Cincy, AAA ot AA as long as they are pitching and gaining experience. I would keep Burton in the bigs to retain him, but otherwise, I'd use Cincy as the carrot and the minors as a stick, rotating the young guys as warranted by performanc.

What bothers me more than anything are innings bring eaten by guys with little or no future. I'd dump Stanton right now (I'd rather see Shack sucking than him if it comes right down to it). I'd deal Weathers and Majeski if I could be the interleague deadline and hope I can get some decent innings from Eddie so I can possibly swing a deal for a prospect by the waiver deadline.

I would also meet with the young guys left in the Cincy, AAA & AA pens and tell them you guys are the bullpen of the future and 2008 Spring Training starts right now. There's an opening for a closer in the Reds pen and you all will be given every oportunity to fill it - May the best man win.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I feel like this season is toast, so I'm not too concerned about whether they pitch in Cincy, AAA ot AA as long as they are pitching and gaining experience. I would keep Burton in the bigs to retain him, but otherwise, I'd use Cincy as the carrot and the minors as a stick, rotating the young guys as warranted by performanc.

What bothers me more than anything are innings bring eaten by guys with little or no future. I'd dump Stanton right now (I'd rather see Shack sucking than him if it comes right down to it). I'd deal Weathers and Majeski if I could be the interleague deadline and hope I can get some decent innings from Eddie so I can possibly swing a deal for a prospect by the waiver deadline.

I would also meet with the young guys left in the Cincy, AAA & AA pens and tell them you guys are the bullpen of the future and 2008 Spring Training starts right now. There's an opening for a closer in the Reds pen and you all will be given every oportunity to fill it - May the best man win.

There's an opening for EVERY spot in the bullpen as far as I'm concerned.

[flyer85]

They may cause a problem for Krivsky but they are not tough decisions