Keith Law mock draft

[edabbs44]

Oh boy...

15. Reds Kevin Ahrens SS/3B Memorial HS, Houston
Bit of a reach here in my mind, but the Reds have zeroed in on Ahrens for a while now, and it sounds like they'll take him unless someone like Dominguez or Parker drops. They have some interest in Nick Schmidt as well, so if Seattle takes Weathers, Cincy may move there.

Oh by the way, this is with Wieters on the board.

A few other tidbits about Cincy's sandwich pick:

There's more than enough uncertainty to go around with the picks above, but some possibilities in the sandwich round include:
Wendell Fairley, Chris Carpenter or Nevin Griffith to the Reds at 34.

Stay away from this guy Fairley. He actually projects him going at 29, but here's his write-up.

29. Giants Wendell Fairley OF/RHP George County, Lucedale HS, Miss.
Fairley is one of the more interesting stories in the draft. He's a top-15 guy on raw ability as a hitter and is also a prospect as a pitcher (although he's more of a thrower right now), but he has a rough background and has had a litany of off-field issues, including a hazing incident on the team bus and a potentially more serious incident that's still under investigation. He's not Elijah Dukes, but in an era when the behavior of pro athletes is under a microscope, it's enough to push him down 10-15 spots or more to the Giants' pick here or at 32.

[Aronchis]

I am not sure if somebody like Dominguez is really "falling" at the 15th spot.

[Blue]

Thanks for posting this, I was hoping someone would.

However, I'm not real crazy about what he has to say. I'll be pretty upset if we pass on Wieters. It would be nice to draft some college players who can contribute soon, for once, especially if the player is at a position of need. I like big LHP Nick Hagadone at 34, and can see him being a guy the Reds would be interested in. Starter-turned-closer who the Reds could turn into a starter again.

[jmcclain19]

Aherns as a Red will be nothing to be disappointed about. However, if Wieters is there and the Reds pass, that will be extremely disappointing.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by jmcclain19

Aherns as a Red will be nothing to be disappointed about. However, if Wieters is there and the Reds pass, that will be extremely disappointing.

You know what bothers me though? The fact that last year EVERYONE knew Cincy was going to draft Stubbs. This year, it seems like EVERYONE knows they are going to draft Ahrens. It makes me believe, assuming Ahrens is their guy, that:

1) This Reds FO, for whatever reason, has zero poker face when it comes to their draft picks.

2) It doesn't matter who is available when they select, they will take Ahrens.

I wonder if, say Andrew Miller was available last year, they would still have taken Stubbs? My money is on yes.

And that's what scares me about this regime. They have probably spoken to Ahrens and said "What's your number?" He tells them "$1.7 million". The higher ups approve and there's your selection. They want to play it safe and zero in on someone they have a good feeling will be there when they pick. Not a total overdraft, but a slight one.

Now, what if Wieters falls and the Reds know it wil take above slot to sign him? Will they be able to gather the testicular fortitude to draft him and worry about money later, or will they still take their guy?

[Hoosier Red]

I'm not sure a poker face necessarily helps you here EdAbbs, you can't trade the pick. So what does it matter if everyone above or below you knows who you're going to pick.

It's better to have that pick in mind and know about how much it will cost to sign that pick, that way you don't have to worry about failing to sign them.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

I'm not sure a poker face necessarily helps you here EdAbbs, you can't trade the pick. So what does it matter if everyone above or below you knows who you're going to pick.

It's better to have that pick in mind and know about how much it will cost to sign that pick, that way you don't have to worry about failing to sign them.

I'm not talking about trading the pick. There are two things that bother me about people knowing who they are selecting.

1) It shows that they are very concerned about signability, which means safety. To be locked in on someone at 15 is tough to do. A lot could happen between 1 and 15. But to be locked in on someone means you are probably overdrafting them since it is tough to gauge who will be there, unless you are 100% sure they will not be drafted by then.

2) Think about this. BA has Ahrens ranked at 28 right now. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could fall to Cincy at 34. Say a team like Texas (with picks at 24 and 35) likes him as well. If Cincy were to take the BPA at 15 then hope that Ahrens drops to 34, Texas might take him at 24 since they know Cincy will pick him at 34. Trading or no trading of picks, it's not good for everyone to know who you really want in a draft.

[jmcclain19]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'm not talking about trading the pick. There are two things that bother me about people knowing who they are selecting.

1) It shows that they are very concerned about signability, which means safety. To be locked in on someone at 15 is tough to do. A lot could happen between 1 and 15. But to be locked in on someone means you are probably overdrafting them since it is tough to gauge who will be there, unless you are 100% sure they will not be drafted by then.

2) Think about this. BA has Ahrens ranked at 28 right now. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could fall to Cincy at 34. Say a team like Texas (with picks at 24 and 35) likes him as well. If Cincy were to take the BPA at 15 then hope that Ahrens drops to 34, Texas might take him at 24 since they know Cincy will pick him at 34. Trading or no trading of picks, it's not good for everyone to know who you really want in a draft.

I've seen that the Blue Jays are looking long and hard at Aherns with both the 16th & 21st pick - plus I've read just about everywhere that after the first 10 or so picks, the level of difference between 11 & 30 is miniscule at best. So take the guy your most comfortable with.

[Aronchis]

It was easy to guess the pick last year because the Reds were higher in the draft and the draft wasn't percieved to be deep.

This year it is about who falls and when.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

It was easy to guess the pick last year because the Reds were higher in the draft and the draft wasn't percieved to be deep.

This year it is about who falls and when.

That's my point, if I had one I guess.

It's a deep draft and everyone said Cincy is all over Ahrens. Do you think that, if someone fell, they would switch gears and go with that "better" player? Or do you think the FO has basically everything ready to go except the signature for this guy?

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

You know what bothers me though? The fact that last year EVERYONE knew Cincy was going to draft Stubbs. This year, it seems like EVERYONE knows they are going to draft Ahrens. It makes me believe, assuming Ahrens is their guy, that:

1) This Reds FO, for whatever reason, has zero poker face when it comes to their draft picks.

2) It doesn't matter who is available when they select, they will take Ahrens.

I wonder if, say Andrew Miller was available last year, they would still have taken Stubbs? My money is on yes.

And that's what scares me about this regime. They have probably spoken to Ahrens and said "What's your number?" He tells them "$1.7 million". The higher ups approve and there's your selection. They want to play it safe and zero in on someone they have a good feeling will be there when they pick. Not a total overdraft, but a slight one.

Now, what if Wieters falls and the Reds know it wil take above slot to sign him? Will they be able to gather the testicular fortitude to draft him and worry about money later, or will they still take their guy?

If you have read MoneyBall, think back to the As on draft day. There aren't too many poker faces in the draft. GMs are calling all over the place beforehand trying to get a handle on who will go where.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

If you have read MoneyBall, think back to the As on draft day. There aren't too many poker faces in the draft. GMs are calling all over the place beforehand trying to get a handle on who will go where.

Wel, then it's time to go against the grain and not call people. Isn't that what the book is all about? Zigging when everyone else is zagging?

[LoganBuck]

My point was, there wasn't any cloak and dagger stuff going on.

[camisadelgolf]

The Reds have more high picks than usual, and Way-K has gone on record saying that signability is a factor. Ahrens at 15 wouldn't surprise me, but I would love to see the Reds be able to afford the best player for each pick.

[dougdirt]

I would love to see the Reds get Griffith at #34. I like what he brings.