MLB draft this Wednesday -- who should the Reds take?

[dougdirt]

Surely some studs to be had at 15. This year the draft is fairly deep with solid talent from 10-40.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Amen!!!!

Look, I agree that Castellini has the final word in this ordeal, but don't you think that he's basically willing to follow Krivsky's plan? Castellini is going to listen to his baseball people in the end.

If Krisky says that Wieters is worth more of the allocated budget, then I think Cast will be willing to let it happen. If Krivsky says he's not worth the money, then I don't think it will happen.

What I'm saying, is that I get the sense that Cast has basically put control in Krivsky's hands, and ultimately, I think the draft choice will come down to Krivsky's decision. I don't know that for sure, but based on the past that is the sense I get. Cast was more than willing to allow Krivsky to deal 2 of the faces of the Reds franchise for no name players. Obviously, that's a different case, but it still applies. I bet Lindner would not have allowed 'The Trade" to happen even if his GM thought it was the right move. Cast has shown his faith in Krivsky, and until now, has shown that he's willing to take on salary if it means wins. So ultimately, I'm willing to say that the decision really lies with Krivsky.

Either way, if the Reds do end up passing on Wieters if he is available, there will be plenty of blame to go around for everybody.

[Xavier Redleg]

Originally Posted by M2

The Aug. 15th deadline is actually an anti-Boras rule. It means he can't stretch out negotiations ad infinitum.

I'll be interested in seeing if any teams teams pass up on singing their Boras client draftees if the team feels like Boras if asking for a completely rediculous price. Remember, if teams don't sign their drafted player, the team gets the same pick the next year. I don't think teams would pass up on signing their first round pick, but it is a possibility.

If anyone's interested in reading about the effects of these new rules and the new deadline, BA answered a question about it recently. They don't think the deadline will make a big difference.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/264014.html

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by HBP

Just for reference, the last ten #15 picks:

2006 - Nationals - Christopher Marrero
2005 – White Sox - Lance Broadway
2004 – Diamondbacks - Stephen Drew
2003 – White Sox – Brian Anderson
2002 – Mets – Scott Kazmir
2001 – Blue Jays - Gabe Gross
2000 – Phillies - Chase Utley
1999 - White Sox - Jason Stumm
1998 – Pirates - Clinton Johnston
1997 - White Sox - Jason Dellaero

Man, that's about a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong.

[jmcclain19]

Originally Posted by Eric_Davis

Man, that's about a 50-50 chance of being right or wrong.

Kazmir & Drew should have gone much, much higher but fell due to percieved or real demands on the Top 10 clubs.

So the actual number is much smaller.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by jmcclain19

Kazmir & Drew should have gone much, much higher but fell due to percieved or real demands on the Top 10 clubs.

So the actual number is much smaller.

It may happen again, lucky 15.

[HBP]

The last ten #34 picks...this is scary:

2006 - Diamondbacks - Brooks Brown
2005 - Marlins - Ryan Tucker
2004 - White Sox - Tyler Lumsden
2003 - Giants - Roger Whitaker
2002 - Braves - Daniel Meyer
2001 - Yankees - Bronson Sardinha
2000 - Reds - Dustin Moseley
1999 - Orioles - Joshua Cenate
1998 - Tigers - Nathan Cornejo
1997 - Braves - John LeRoy

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by HBP

The last ten #34 picks...this is scary:

2006 - Diamondbacks - Brooks Brown
2005 - Marlins - Ryan Tucker
2004 - White Sox - Tyler Lumsden
2003 - Giants - Roger Whitaker
2002 - Braves - Daniel Meyer
2001 - Yankees - Bronson Sardinha
2000 - Reds - Dustin Moseley
1999 - Orioles - Joshua Cenate
1998 - Tigers - Nathan Cornejo
1997 - Braves - John LeRoy

It's all about drafting the right guy...I'm sure that there have been players drafted after 34 who have turned out ok.

Replace Whitaker with Saltalamaccia (#36), Meyer with Teahen (#39) and Lumsden with Street (#40) and it will look a lot better.

You can also replace Tucker with Hochevar (#40).

[edabbs44]

Interesting take on who the Rays should take at #1. But, by looking at what he says about taking pitching, this is how I feel about the Reds and what I've been saying for a while.

If the Reds think this guy Ahrens is a lock to be a star over any available pitcher, then fine. But they need to load up on arms.

Rays should take Price No. 1

Carl Crawford is signed through 2010, Rocco Baldelli through 2011. Delmon Young is under Tampa Bay's control through 2012, and so is B.J. Upton. The Devil Rays' window of opportunity for playoff relevance -- their first real and best chance, after 10 years in existence -- will occur sometime in the next three to four years.

But the window will close on Tampa Bay unless the Rays develop better pitchers and more pitching depth, and this is why it makes sense for the Rays to take Vanderbilt pitcher David Price with the first pick in Thursday's amateur draft.


The Rays could still take Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters or maybe prep third baseman Josh Vitters. But neither Wieters nor Vitters would help the Rays address their glaring need for high-end pitching -- the kind of pitching they need to contend with the big-money monsters that have dominated the AL East.


Price came into this season amid high expectations and has done everything to live up to them, going 11-0 with a 2.59 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 132 innings, and he has helped Vanderbilt to a No. 1 ranking. He is left-handed, throws hard and is widely respected for his work ethic and drive to improve. If the Rays drafted him, it's possible he would be in the big leagues sometime soon, within the next calendar year, joining James Shields, Scott Kazmir and maybe Jeff Niemann in the Tampa Bay rotation by the end of the 2008 season. "He has the best chance of giving [the Rays] help right away," said a major league talent evaluator. "And it's pitching help."

Increasingly, there are only three ways you can acquire top-flight pitching.

(1) You can either scout and draft your own talent.
(2) You can spend big dollars for free agents.
(3) You get lucky in a second-level trade or with a Rule 5 draft pick. Teams have all but stopped trading their top tier of young pitching (unless it's in a deal like John Danks for Brandon McCarthy, young gun for young gun). Spoke with a couple of general managers recently and asked if they would trade their best young pitcher for Crawford -- in both cases, these are excellent major league pitchers -- and they immediately shot down the speculation. "No chance," said one. "I love Crawford, and there are a lot of players I would trade for him. But not that guy [the pitcher], because how would I replace him?"

So if the Rays pass on Price, they would still be searching for someone like him. They need to take the pitcher.

[Kingspoint]

Anyone personally seen any of the available players more than once?

[Blitz Dorsey]

I'm still dumbfounded that we got a sandwich pick for "losing" Scot Schowenweis. Aurilia I can almost understand. But MLB is crazy for giving out such high compensatory picks for losing a middle reliever who we aquired midseason. I mean, I'm glad we are benefitting this year, but this is a moronic rule.

If you lose a good FA, that's one thing. But Scot Freakin Schowenweis?

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Anytime that you draft for need in baseball you are setting yourself up to fail. The Reds have so much more pitching talent in the minors than they do hitting talent its not even really that close. You don't just draft the best pitching available if you think that the guy you are going to take would be the best pro one day. Did I like the Drew Stubbs pick at the time? Absolutely not. I wanted Billy Rowell like a fat kid wants an extra slice of birthday cake, but it didnt happen.
As for Stubbs not being great at anything.... I am not sure how much defense you have seen him play, but its great. The guy is like a thouroughbred out in CF. He just glides effortlessly to the ball like he isnt even trying. As for his bat, it has some questions, but when people try to compare it to BJ Szymanski I just laugh. They both strike out a lot, but thats about where it ends with the comparisons. Drew had a bad April, but in May he was very solid with a .403 OBP and a .447 SLG and he even improved the rate at which he struck out.
If he were a corner infield or outfield guy, I might be a little worried about his bat, but since he isnt and he plays one of the lightest hitting positions on the field, he truly needs to OPS just .750 and play good defense to be a very valuable player.

Well, you make some good points and even admit that you weren't a fan of the Reds taking Stubbs last year. I hope you are right that he is a great defensive player and not just good. Because there is no doubt in my mind he will struggle offensively in the majors. You don't draft defense and speed that early in the draft IMO. Just a huge blunder by Krivsky. I agree you can't "draft for need" but when Drew Stubbs is the best position player on the board, I'm taking the best pitcher available. That might sound simplistic, but no way was Stubbs worthy of a top 10 first round selection. He would have been a good pick for someone in the sandwich round, but I think we reached for him far too much (not saying he would have lasted until the sandwich round -- someone would have taken a chance on him in the first round, I'm just not happy it was us so early).

EDIT -- And I would posit that the Reds "drafted for need" when they took Stubbs. They wanted a right-handed hitting OF since all of their power hitting OFs are left handed. That just made the pick even worse IMO.

[Mario-Rijo]

Obviously as has been mentioned quite a bit, if Weiters is there you take him. Unless and I mean you better be absolutely right about someone else under that scenario, you have a guy who you think's ceiling is much higher and he has extremely high shot at reaching that ceiling.

Otherwise if Weiters isn't available, I gotta go Dominguez if he is there.

[Blue]

Would you take catcher JP Arencibia at 34 if available? I think I would. He and LHP Nick Hagadone are who I like at that spot.

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by HBP

The last ten #34 picks...this is scary:

2006 - Diamondbacks - Brooks Brown
2005 - Marlins - Ryan Tucker
2004 - White Sox - Tyler Lumsden
2003 - Giants - Roger Whitaker
2002 - Braves - Daniel Meyer
2001 - Yankees - Bronson Sardinha
2000 - Reds - Dustin Moseley
1999 - Orioles - Joshua Cenate
1998 - Tigers - Nathan Cornejo
1997 - Braves - John LeRoy

It's pretty amazing that that many scouting departments and G.M.'s can be that wrong.