Silver lining to tonight's loss

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Your protesting notwithstanding, we have a real GM. As some of us have said, you don't turn things around in a short time. And we're dealing with a short time here; the new ownership has only been in place 1 1/2 years and the GM position wasn't filled until right before last year's Spring Training.

As for paying for leadership, Narron's salary isn't, and never has been, the issue. He's paid similarly to many managers, some of whom are in first place. Of course, look at what the big bucks are getting for the Yankees, the Cubs, and the Redbirds.

I agree with some of the other posters here who acknowledge that there are some good things starting to come around for this club, even if the record still doesn't show it. I'll look at the real silver lining they're seeing, not the ongoing disdain for most things Reds that others seem to gravitate towards.

Here's the thing...Wayne made a legit attempt (in his mind) to make the team into a contender for 2007 and is currently .5 games from the worst record in baseball. If he was rebuilding, I would say "Yeah, give it some time." But he increased payroll this season by 16% and made the team much, much worse.

[RedsBaron]

Originally Posted by mth123

I agree with M2 concerning the young bullpen pitchers. This season the pen has been a wasteland for two reasons:

1. Wayne Krivsky (the "GM") and his insistence on spending the little cash he had on mediocrities like Stanton, Cormier and Saarloos. (And yes, I thought Weathers was a bad signing too.)

2. Jerry Narron (the "Manager") and his complete lack of understanding when to remove a pitcher, when to use a pitcher and how exactly to keep a productive pitcher on a roll.

I do give some credit for the McBeth acquisition. He appears to be a cheap and useful young arm with some stuff. He may never be closer material but could be a decent quality guy to round out the pen. If the Reds can get these younger guys somewhat established it makes the picture a lot brighter.

If this "GM" shops his best trading chip for bullpen help (as rumored) much in the same way that last year he shopped his best trading chips for bullpen help, then those criticizing are absolutely correct. IMO. this "GM" is not much of a GM and he will not ever make the move from "GM" to GM until he does something about making a move from "Manager" to Manager. Firing Narron should be his first order of business. Trading for Bullpen help unless its the high leverage impact arm (who's still pretty cheap for a few years) should be the last thing on hs mind. Time to look at our own which M2 astutely points out in the initial post.

I agree and I agree and I really, really agree. Has any team ever won a championship with a bullpen made up of nothing but old arms, which has seemed to be Krivsky's preference? Having some right arms in the 'pen is a must.
Where I really, really agree is the point that trading the Reds best trading chip for bullpen help is nuts. If the Reds do trade Dunn, as is rumored, the return had better be more than an arm or two for the bullpen. If Krivsky even tries to do a repeat of last year's Kearns-Lopez trade, he should be fired on the spot.

[red-in-la]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Your protesting notwithstanding, we have a real GM. As some of us have said, you don't turn things around in a short time. And we're dealing with a short time here; the new ownership has only been in place 1 1/2 years and the GM position wasn't filled until right before last year's Spring Training.

As for paying for leadership, Narron's salary isn't, and never has been, the issue. He's paid similarly to many managers, some of whom are in first place. Of course, look at what the big bucks are getting for the Yankees, the Cubs, and the Redbirds.

I agree with some of the other posters here who acknowledge that there are some good things starting to come around for this club, even if the record still doesn't show it. I'll look at the real silver lining they're seeing, not the ongoing disdain for most things Reds that others seem to gravitate towards.

Again, whatever you are taking, I hope you brought enough for everybody.

Yeah, look at what the big bucks are getting the Yankees, Cubs and Redbirds. The Yankees have won how many WS championships in the last 10 years? They currently have won 10 games in row....I think. And the Redbirds are consistently the team to beat in the NL Central.....and was that a world title they won recently or not?

Well, the Cubs are the Cubs.....and they spent nutty money just this one year. Over the last couple of years they pinned their hopes on two pitchers who broke down.

BTW, I never said money was an issue. Getting two fringe GM wannabees in a row is the issue.

I have been saying for a while now, the Reds are now the Pirates part duex. They had a chance at one point to become the Cardinals part duex but that opportunity may have gone by the wayside. I hope not.

But the FO this team has right now has NO CHANCE.....no chance....IMHO of going in that direction.

What I would LOVE to see is for the Reds, just once, to win a contested search for a GM and a manager......actually get somebody that other teams also wanted. Now maybe you could argue that Krivsky was one of those guys, but I really wonder if the Reds fired him today, if anyone else would go after him.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Your protesting notwithstanding, we have a real GM. As some of us have said, you don't turn things around in a short time. And we're dealing with a short time here; the new ownership has only been in place 1 1/2 years and the GM position wasn't filled until right before last year's Spring Training.

I agree with some of the other posters here who acknowledge that there are some good things starting to come around for this club, even if the record still doesn't show it. I'll look at the real silver lining they're seeing, not the ongoing disdain for most things Reds that others seem to gravitate towards.

"You don't turn things around in a short time," you say, but in 17 months things have not improved. They have gotten worse.

2004 - 37-31     76-86
         2005 -  26-42     73-89
         2006 -  37-31     80-82
         2007 -  26-42        ?

What have we improved?

1st base - Exchanged Sean Casey for Scott Hatteberg and Jeff Conine and wait on Joey Votto. Votto is a prospect. He may or may not fill the bill.

2nd base -Freel for Phillips. Nice move.

3rd base - Rich Aurilia for Edwin Encarcanion. Good if not already ordained move.

Shortstop - Felix Lopez for Alex Gonzalez. I call this a wash. and in GABP, the advantage might go to Lopez. Not enough to argue about here.

Left field - Adam Dunn, soon to be Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel. Are you kidding me?

Center field - Ken Griffey Jr for Ryan Freel or Josh Hamilton. Future looks good, but time will tell

Right Field - Austin Kearns for Ken Griffey, Jr. The one position where we're better off offensively. Defensively, I don't know.

Catcher - Jason Larue for David Ross. Huh?

Starting pitching - Milton, Harang, Claussen, Ramiriez, and a cast of thousands for Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Lohse, and Bailey. Better than what we started with, no doubt, but. as you can see, the same results regardless.

Relif Pitching - Is there enough bandwidth? Hardly any improvement from when he started though, the Reds had 29 pitchers, only 2 of which remain on the club today. Wow. With the same result. Although I see some promise in the new kids, I see little hope for Stanton, Saarloos, Majewski, Bray, and other Krivsky acquisitions.

And, the result is the same as in 2005 before Krivsky came. 26-42. That's the bottom line. Any silver lining comes with the large caveat of hope and prayer.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

"You don't turn things around in a short time," you say, but in 17 months things have not improved. They have gotten worse.

2004 - 37-31     76-86
         2005 -  26-42     73-89
         2006 -  37-31     80-82
         2007 -  26-42        ?

What have we improved?

1st base - Exchanged Sean Casey for Scott Hatteberg and Jeff Conine and wait on Joey Votto. Votto is a prospect. He may or may not fill the bill.

2nd base -Freel for Phillips. Nice move.

3rd base - Rich Aurilia for Edwin Encarcanion. Good if not already ordained move.

Shortstop - Felix Lopez for Alex Gonzalez. I call this a wash. and in GABP, the advantage might go to Lopez. Not enough to argue about here.

Left field - Adam Dunn, soon to be Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel. Are you kidding me?

Center field - Ken Griffey Jr for Ryan Freel or Josh Hamilton. Future looks good, but time will tell

Right Field - Austin Kearns for Ken Griffey, Jr. The one position where we're better off offensively. Defensively, I don't know.

Catcher - Jason Larue for David Ross. Huh?

Starting pitching - Milton, Harang, Claussen, Ramiriez, and a cast of thousands for Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Lohse, and Bailey. Better than what we started with, no doubt, but. as you can see, the same results regardless.

Relif Pitching - Is there enough bandwidth? Hardly any improvement from when he started though, the Reds had 29 pitchers, only 2 of which remain on the club today. Wow. With the same result. Although I see some promise in the new kids, I see little hope for Stanton, Saarloos, Majewski, Bray, and other Krivsky acquisitions.

And, the result is the same as in 2005 before Krivsky came. 26-42. That's the bottom line. Any silver lining comes with the large caveat of hope and prayer.

Gonzalez is clearly better than Lopez as a SS IMO. I think Lopez is quickly playing himself out as a starter in the majors. He's not a good fielder, his OBP this year is .284 and he is no longer slugging or stealing bases. 2005 was a mirage, get over it.

The first base platoon for the reds is hardly sexy but it is producing pretty well given the investment. What's Sean Casey doing? (not to mention that he was traded by the previous regime)

David Ross is an upgrade of Larue at this point too. Ross' horrible year thus far notwithstanding.

The Reds are having a really bad year from a won/loss perspective but don't mistake the fact that for once they aren't outplaying their pythag with the idea that that automatically means the organization is in worse shape than it was. You may not be happy with the pace of progress or results on the field this season but that doesn't mean progress hasn't been made or that the teams future is as doomed as some here seem to insist.

[traderumor]

Here's the thing...Wayne made a legit attempt (in his mind) to make the team into a contender for 2007 and is currently .5 games from the worst record in baseball. If he was rebuilding, I would say "Yeah, give it some time." But he increased payroll this season by 16% and made the team much, much worse.

First, Pedro hit it on the head--this is same song second verse, except this team has lost its late inning magic and went the other direction with the 8th inning Bermuda Triangle. It is basically the same team with a little better starting pitching (although inconsistent, they are better when they are good instead of constantly putrid as in the past). Now, I hear what you are saying about increasing payroll but getting worse, but the flip side of that no big $ are committed to LT albatross contracts anymore. This team can go young and cheap very quickly, which they are about to do.

As for what Wayne intended to do, you seem to be placing a lot of weight on what he tells the press his hopes are versus what his realistic expectations are for this year. It seems to me he punted the offseason because he realized the team was not a big $ free agent or two away, and even if they were, there was a bunch of dreck in the free agent pool last year. Also, there were no young impact major league ready guys hitting this year in house.

So, he took a flyer on a couple of vet relievers (shame on him for giving Stanton two years, but I doubt if he was bidding against himself on that one) and locked up his top two starters for a couple of years. Low risk, inexpensive moves that indicate someone who realized that this could be a tough year.

But what does he do, come out and announce before the season "yea, I think we're gonna suck, we're just buying time until a few prospects mature, I'm probably gonna look to trade Dunn and Griffey at the trade deadline because no one was willing give me anything in the offseason for them."

In other words, it is just as easy to assume that Wayne understands the delicate balance between putting fannies in the seats, not losing his guys that he does have by telling them he expects little from them, and divulging to the world his real assessment of the team. I imagine behind closed doors, or in his own thoughts, he realized full well that a lot of things will have to go very right for this team to even contend. Of course, what he does with Griffey and Dunn will tell us all we need to know.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by traderumor

First, Pedro hit it on the head--this is same song second verse, except this team has lost its late inning magic and went the other direction with the 8th inning Bermuda Triangle. It is basically the same team with a little better starting pitching (although inconsistent, they are better when they are good instead of constantly putrid as in the past). Now, I hear what you are saying about increasing payroll but getting worse, but the flip side of that no big $ are committed to LT albatross contracts anymore. This team can go young and cheap very quickly, which they are about to do.

As for what Wayne intended to do, you seem to be placing a lot of weight on what he tells the press his hopes are versus what his realistic expectations are for this year. It seems to me he punted the offseason because he realized the team was not a big $ free agent or two away, and even if they were, there was a bunch of dreck in the free agent pool last year. Also, there were no young impact major league ready guys hitting this year in house.

So, he took a flyer on a couple of vet relievers (shame on him for giving Stanton two years, but I doubt if he was bidding against himself on that one) and locked up his top two starters for a couple of years. Low risk, inexpensive moves that indicate someone who realized that this could be a tough year.

But what does he do, come out and announce before the season "yea, I think we're gonna suck, we're just buying time until a few prospects mature, I'm probably gonna look to trade Dunn and Griffey at the trade deadline because no one was willing give me anything in the offseason for them."

In other words, it is just as easy to assume that Wayne understands the delicate balance between putting fannies in the seats, not losing his guys that he does have by telling them he expects little from them, and divulging to the world his real assessment of the team. I imagine behind closed doors, or in his own thoughts, he realized full well that a lot of things will have to go very right for this team to even contend. Of course, what he does with Griffey and Dunn will tell us all we need to know.

That's one take on it. Another might be, there is a legit opportunity in a weak division, instead of frittering away all my resources on declining vets, I'll pool them all for one guy who can make a difference and fill in with lower cost AAAA guys, minor leaguers with some promise and probably be better off for it.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

Well, all but McBeth were here last year in the organization. Coffey was doing his thing, Cout still needed time, and Salmon was the only one that could have used a bit of time at the ML level. I think the McBeth pick up will be another "rabbit out of the hat" deals he makes.

I guess I just think we should have brought up the kids earlier rather than trading for Cormier, Maj and Bray.

[IslandRed]

Getting back to the original subject of the thread -- for all the abuse the bullpen has taken, it was nice to see four straight innings of younger guys throwing hard, missing bats, getting outs. Not that it's a great bullpen by any means, but we probably have six of the seven spots set up as best we can for now. (I don't mind Santos in the long-man, low-leverage role.) A healthy Bill Bray in place of Stanton (not that I have any clue when Bray will be healthy) and that's as good as we've got.

That brings us to David Weathers. As a 37-year-old effectively closing games, Weathers' value will never be higher. If we're going to pull the plug, as suggested by fielding offers for Dunn and Griffey, Weathers needs to be cashed in. What would be cool is if Guardado comes back around the same time, assumes the closer's role and does it effectively, maybe we cash him in, too.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I guess I just think we should have brought up the kids earlier rather than trading for Cormier, Maj and Bray.

Bingo. I think making a move for an arm or two last year was ok and appropriate. WK brought in Guardado, Maj, Bray, Cormier, Schoeneweiss, Franklin, Kim, Johnson, etc. Never gave any shot to some pretty well performing resources in the minors (Salmon, Shafer, Coutlangus to name 3). It seems these guys could have been tried before so many resources were expended on retreads. It may have laid a better foundation for the off-season and avoided the mess we've witnessed now. I might have even made the awful trade in some similar form with the idea that young arms coud shape the future, but more quality and less quantity was needed there. The extension for Cormier was just an abysmal idea and Germano seemed no big loss at the time, but his absence lead to the Lizard abuse and the desperate moves for Jason Johnson and whichever Kim they ended up with last year (Sun Woo I think).

[WVRedsFan]

That's three of us in the same boat. The kids are cheaper and couldn't have done a worse job. That's not possible.

What we keep doing to trading offense for relief pitching. No GM alive, unless he's crazy would do that. You develop relief pitching and you covet guys who can drive in 100 runs. There are lots of relief pitchers out there (including the farm system) but the 100 RBI guys are few and far between.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Don't forget Medlock, currently sporting a 54-5 K to BB in 43 IP at AA. That and he's already on the 40-man roster and would make the minimum.

What do he and Guevara have to do to get a shot?

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

What do he and Guevara have to do to get a shot?

Use Grecian 5, drive around in a convertible, and listen to a lot of Journey on the car stereo.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Here's the thing...Wayne made a legit attempt (in his mind) to make the team into a contender for 2007 and is currently .5 games from the worst record in baseball. If he was rebuilding, I would say "Yeah, give it some time." But he increased payroll this season by 16% and made the team much, much worse.

+1. While I do agree that we should give a new GM time to develop a plan, Krivsky has made that approach very difficult. It would be one thing if the Reds were clearly on a "rebuilding, go with youth" type plan, but instead we seem to be somewhere between that and the "fill in the holes with bandaid, retread veterans" approach favored by K's predecessors. Ouch.

[BCubb2003]

Originally Posted by RedEye

+1. While I do agree that we should give a new GM time to develop a plan, Krivsky has made that approach very difficult. It would be one thing if the Reds were clearly on a "rebuilding, go with youth" type plan, but instead we seem to be somewhere between that and the "fill in the holes with bandaid, retread veterans" approach favored by K's predecessors. Ouch.

I think it could be called a "rebuilding, go with veteran filler until the youth are ready" plan, and it might have some merit.