Possible trade - need help!

[RedEye]

I've decided to trade Ryan Howard and am now receiving offers. Here is an earlier post I made about the situation:

I'm in a 12-team league with the following stats on offense: 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, R, SB, BB, OPS, BA. Each season, we keep three players on our roster for the next year. My team is slumping badly, and I just made a few crazy trades that left my pitching staff in a shambles in order to acquire the following fearsome foursome:

Albert Pujols
Ryan Howard
David Wright
Carl Crawford

Albert is staying on my team, obviously, which means I have to choose two of the other three. I'm leaning towards holding onto Crawford just because he gets so many SB and 3B and is a good complement to Pujols' power. The Howard/Wright choice might be really hard though. They are both having off years so far, but they are also both top-10 players when going well. Wright is probably more well-rounded, but Howard has that ability to just go off and dominate all the categories once in awhile. Then again, I could drop Crawford and keep both of them. OF, after all, is a much deeper position than either 1B or 3B...

I'm really torn.

Someone made the following offer to me:

Cole Hamels - Rich Harden - Brad Hawpe

for

Ryan Howard - Javier Vazquez

If you are in my situation, do you make this deal?

[Red Leader]

Well, I think the return you are getting is a good return. Hamels is a good pitcher, Hawpe is a good hitter. Harden is injury prone, but a tremendous pitcher when healthy. He'll be working out of the bullpen for the near future. Not sure what your categories are for pitching.

The thing is, though, you can't keep any of the players you are getting in return as you've already got your 3 keepers in Pujols, Wright and Crawford. Should you maybe keep Hamels or Harden over Crawford? Maybe Hamels, but not Harden with his injury history.

I think the return is good, but you have to believe you are getting upgrades for THIS year's team because long term this trade might not have any impact at all. I do think you're getting fair value in return, though.

Defininitely try to get more than just my opinion, though. I'm not playing fantasy baseball this year so I don't know how every player in the league is performing like I used to. I just did a quick lookup on each of the players and that's where I drew my conclusion. As an aside, it looks like Howard is really starting to put it together at the plate after struggling to start the season.

[RedEye]

Yes, that's my thought, too. I just rejected the trade after some thought. If Harden were healthy and pitching in the rotation, I would have accepted it.

My counter was this:

Ryan Howard - Alex Rios - Javier Vazquez

for

Carlos Beltran - Cole Hamels - Rich Hill

This addresses my pitching woes, lands my trade partner an A-list slugger in Howard, gives me a keeper-quality player in return (Beltran), and gives my partner a quality replacement for him (Rios).

I'll let you know how it pans out.

[camisadelgolf]

No offense, but if your opponent even considers accepting that trade, I think there's something very wrong with your opponent.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

No offense, but if your opponent even considers accepting that trade, I think there's something very wrong with your opponent.

No offense taken. Why isn't it a good offer?

Howard - Beltran = about an even exchange depending on your perspective. Howard has been heating up recently, but Beltran is still off his game.

Rios - Hamels = two young players at the top of their games. Rios is actually outperforming Beltran in some respects right now. Hamels has posted about half a season of good baseball total. They are both "sell high" candidates.

Hill - Vazquez = Hill has the edge right now, but Vazquez is solid and has a longer track record.

Of course, the offer was part of a longer bargaining process. If he rejects it and comes back with another one, so be it. That's sort of what I'm expecting.

[camisadelgolf]

When you word it like that, it's reasonable. I guess we just don't see things the same way. The way I see it, you'll have a better chance of coming across a player like Howard at first base than a player at Beltran in the outfield. Not only that, but objectively in terms of potential and results, Beltran is better. Rios looks to be a very promising player, but I don't think he's in the same league as Cole Hamels, who could be a stud (a hot commodity) for many years to come. Vazquez (who is underrated, IMO) has a longer track record, yes, but Hill is a guy who could become something like a Roy Halladay, in my opinion.

[RedEye]

I guess we are just assessing potential here in different ways.

Howard/Beltran -
My POV has always been that OF are easier to come by than 1B just since there are so darn many of them. You are much more likely to find a good replacement value OF on the waiver wire than a 1B, so for that reason Howard's elite slugging potential takes slight precedence over Beltran's all-around OF package... That said, they are both sure-fire first-round picks, so I consider it a fairly even exchange at the end of the day.

Rios/Hamels -
In our league setup, we have 10 hitting categories and 10 pitching. However, two of the pitching categories are only available for relievers (Saves, Holds) and so starting pitchers can only contribute to 8. Rios does it all (power, average, SB) and so he is a potential 10-category stud. To me, that evens him out with Hamels (who by all means is an awesome pitcher on the rise).

I basically agree with your assessment of Hill and Vazquez... but that's the tail-end of the deal anyway, and I don't consider it that important (if he counter-offered someone else similar, I'd probably do it).

Thanks for the thoughtful feedback. I eat this stuff up, as is painfully obvious by now.