ANOTHER worthless Dunn Homer?!?!

[BLEEDS]

God, all that guy does is hit Garbage HR's, never late in ballgames and never with the game close. Never hits SF's either.

Come on - none of you expected us to blow that 7-6 lead?!?!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[He got it!]

I thought that was A- ROD?

[WMR]

Please tell me you're being sarcastic.

[Degenerate39]

Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

Please tell me you're being sarcastic.

For the sake of all things I hope its sarcasm

[I(heart)Freel]

And based on tonight, Harang is an average starting pitcher.

In other words, one night doesnt make a season or mask the cumulative stats.

Dunn is still hitting .219 with RISP and .182 with RISP and two outs.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel

And based on tonight, Harang is an average starting pitcher.

In other words, one night doesnt make a season or mask the cumulative stats.

Dunn is still hitting .219 with RISP and .182 with RISP and two outs.

Yep, you just can't mask a line of .271/.361/.579/.930 with 22 HRs, 52 RBIs, and 51 runs scored. When will people realize that this Adam Dunn guy just isn't a run producer?

[/sarcasm]

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Screwball

Yep, you just can't mask a line of .271/.361/.579/.930 with 22 HRs, 52 RBIs, and 51 runs scored. When will people realize that this Adam Dunn guy just isn't a run producer?

[/sarcasm]

I have to butt in here. So, in order to respond to a post stating that Dunn's total numbers are misleading and he isn't clutch....you just throw up his total numbers?

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I have to butt in here. So, in order to respond to a post stating that Dunn's total numbers are misleading and he isn't clutch....you just throw up his total numbers?

No, the poster I responded to said that one night does not mask the numbers. I then posted (a lot) more numbers than the ones he so carefully selected.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Screwball

No, the poster I responded to said that one night does not mask the numbers. I then posted (a lot) more numbers than the ones he so carefully selected.

I'm on the fence with Dunn, much to the chagrin of this forum who either love or hate the man, so I am certainly searching for answers about him. His numbers with 2-outs/RISP do speak volumes to me. As a casual (not looking up the stats) observer, it does seem that he hits many HR's in meaningless situations (however probably the majority of HR's hit in the ML are in "meaningless situations"). But...in a thread/post saying Dunn's total numbers are decieving and he fails to produce in the clutch, one should at least produce more than his statline as a response.

I know it was only one time, but he did hit that walk-off grand slam against Cleveland last year.

[BearcatShane]

Adam Dunn hits mostly meaningless home runs!?

What about his walkoff granny last year vs Cleveland? What about his walkoff 3 run shot vs Milwaukee last year? In 2004 he hit a walkoff vs Montreal. I remember a game last year where he got a 2 out 2 run double vs Kansas City in the bottom of the 8th inning in a tie game to give us the lead and we won. I think he hit a walkoff in August of 2003 vs Colorado as well. So anyone who does not think Dunn is clutch just needs to check their info.

[mbgrayson]

As usual when everyone stakes out dramatically different positions, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

We DO need Dunn's run production, streaky though it may be. We have a feast or famine offense, lead MLB in HRs, and yet have the worst record in baseball.

Dunn has struck out way more than most hitters with runners on base, and in scoring position. Yet, all those those walks do jack up his OBP to partially make up for world record strikeout numbers.

I also think his defense is a little better this year. He has only made three errors in 117 total chances(.974), where last year he had 12 errors in 298 chances.(.960). Don't like traditional fielding stats? His zone rating has gone up to .840 this year compared to .815 in 2006. (Zone rating is the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.) Dunn is 5th out of 12 National League left-fielders in zone rating....see THIS LINK.

The one thing we would all like to see is for him to shorten up his swing with two strikes and runners on base, and make contact a better percentage of time. Strikeouts almost never score runners.

With runners in scoring position, Dunn is hitting .215/.329/.369, and has struck out 27 out of 65 ABs this year(.415 K rate). With RISP and 2 outs, he is hitting .182/.308/.303, and K'd 18 out of 33 chances(.545 K rate). With nobody on, he is htting .296/.382/.612, and K'd 48 out of 152 times(.316 K rate). Stats from ESPN.

What exactly causes this big drop? Is it nerves? Pressing too hard? Lack of focus with base-runners distracting the pitcher and Dunn?

By comparison, lets look at those same stats from supposed Mr. Clutch, David Ortiz. With RISP, he is hitting .371/.464/.629, with 13 Ks out of 70 ABs(.186). With RISP and 2 outs, Ortiz gets even better: .387/.486/.710, and a K rate of 3 out of 14 (.214). Overall, Dunn currently leads Ortiz in RBIs, 52-48, but Ortiz really is clutch, and Dunn really does choke when we need contact.

I STILL think this could be fixed, and even if not, Dunn has real value.

BTW, his two run homer tonight may have made more difference than you think. It enabled Weathers to go directly at the batters in the bottom of the 9th, and not worry about a solo HR from Philly. Much better to be up 9-6 than 7-6.

[Chi-Town Red]

all this wont matter once he is traded

[ChatterRed]

How about looking at his career numbers?

Yes, he is having a decent season. His numbers this season are far better than his overall numbers in the other seasons. ALL THE MORE REASON TO TRADE HIM NOW.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by ChatterRed

How about looking at his career numbers?

Yes, he is having a decent season. His numbers this season are far better than his overall numbers in the other seasons. ALL THE MORE REASON TO TRADE HIM NOW.

Adam Dunn
2007 through game 78(almost half way):
.271/.362/.575 22 Hrs, 52 RBIs, 7 SBs, 98 Ks.

Career average(includes 2007):
.248/.378/.518 40 HRs, 94 RBIs, 10 SBs, 185 Ks.

Dunn's 2007 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .340, up from .278 last year.... luckier when he makes contact. His 'line drive/ground ball/fly ball' rates on balls in play is 21.5%/32.8%/45.8% this year, close to career norms. See batted balls STATS HERE.

A couple other interesting numbers: only 1 intentional walk this year, compared to 12 last year. Other teams take their chances pitching to Dunn with runners on now; no respect. Dunn's walk rate is down to 12.2% this year, compared to 16.5% career average.

So it seems to me his numbers are improved somewhat from career norms in a few categories(RBIs, avg. HRs), and worse in others(K rate, BB rate).

Should we trade him? Only if we get the right return. Desperation leads to bad deals....but we have to remember that last year Dunn had a terrible August to October slump. If that happens again, his off-season trade value will drop.

Keep in mind that if we hold on to him until the end of next year, and he then goes via free agency, we do get a supplemental 1st and 3rd(?) round draft picks. Nice article on the Mariner's Blog HERE about whether to trade Ichiro or let him go in return for draft picks. Summary: compensatory draft picks have done better over time than spare part/rejects you ususally get in mid-season trades.