Radical Drw Stubbs idea, promote him

[M2]

I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

[Benihana]

I like this idea. The status quo is definitely not working.

[Triples]

Intersting concept but IMO I see a couple of things that I don't agree with in your "radical idea". First, teams share scouting reports across the minor league levels. Just because a player has never played in a league before doesn't mean they don't have scouting reports. Its obvious by now just about everyone has figured out is weaknesses and those are well documented in the scouting reports; 2.) with or without the scouting reports, the pitchers in the next level up will be better (at least on an overall average) so the likelihood of Stubbs doing better in Sarasota than in Dayton seems diminished. Combine the better pitching talent with good scouting reports and it seems highly unlikely that Stubbs would do any better and very likely do worse. He really needs to get it figured out, at least to a greater degree than right now, before they promote him.

Originally Posted by M2

I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Triples

Intersting concept but IMO I see a couple of things that I don't agree with in your "radical idea". First, teams share scouting reports across the minor league levels. Just because a player has never played in a league before doesn't mean they don't have scouting reports. Its obvious by now just about everyone has figured out is weaknesses and those are well documented in the scouting reports; 2.) with or without the scouting reports, the pitchers in the next level up will be better (at least on an overall average) so the likelihood of Stubbs doing better in Sarasota than in Dayton seems diminished. Combine the better pitching talent with good scouting reports and it seems highly unlikely that Stubbs would do any better and very likely do worse. He really needs to get it figured out, at least to a greater degree than right now, before they promote him.

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not be overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.

[dfs]

Don't hitting numbers usually take a hit when they move from Dayton to Sarasota? I mean...if the idea is to provide the illusion of improvment, that isn't likely to help. Since he never drives the ball, I think a good deal of Stubbs value will vanish as the pitchers (and fielders) he faces start to become better.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by M2

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.

This is exactly the Machiavellian exploitation of the farm we need that we've not seen in some time. It's time this organization got wise and started the squeeze some rancid juice from its frost-stung fruit.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by dfs

Don't hitting numbers usually take a hit when they move from Dayton to Sarasota? I mean...if the idea is to provide the illusion of improvment, that isn't likely to help. Since he never drives the ball, I think a good deal of Stubbs value will vanish as the pitchers (and fielders) he faces start to become better.

As M2 said: what's to lose?

[Kc61]

I was thinking the other day that he might go the other way and wind up back in Billings.

[Triples]

Huh????

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

This is exactly the Machiavellian exploitation of the farm we need that we've not seen in some time. It's time this organization got wise and started the squeeze some rancid juice from its frost-stung fruit.

[TOBTTReds]

How hard does he throw? Is it time for a matt bush change? I know it is extremely early, but I don't have any faith.

[Triples]

If I may respond to each of your comments, again IMO:

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up. I'd would concede on this one if it weren't for the fact that Stubbs was a #1 pick. No one is going to simply ignore him. every player drafted below him wants to better him, I don't care what league he's playing in except maybe the majors

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling. Isn't it true that the pitchers that move up in the system are those that pitch better? And isn't it true that those that pitch better are those that have developed more than one pitch? If that's correct, then why would high A be more fastball heavy than Low A or Rookie ball/

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status. Because the odds highly favor him flopping at a higher level worse than he did at the lower level, then he would have zero value.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft. OK, then trade him now while there maybe someone out there that thinks he something that he's heretofore shown he's not. Don't send him up so he can fail again and make him have no value.

One other consideration about sending him to High A. There's that little thing called confidence. I have to think its at low tide for Stubbs right now. If he goes to High A and falls on his face, he may be ruined.

No one has questioned his athletic ability or makeup, may be he is just a late bloomer (so to speak). Let him find his way in a league where he has a chance at some success. Someone suggested sending him back to Billings. That may not be a bad idea if its presented to him in the right way.

This may sound like I'm down on Drew Stubbs, but I'm not. I just disagree with the notion that the thing to do with him is to push him to the next level and that will somehow either make him better of increase his value.

Originally Posted by M2

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.

[Red Leader]

My $.02.

M2 and FCB are right on. Stubbs, at this point, is a sunk cost. Confidence? I don't care about his confidence. I care about the confidence of the players that are playing well and I want to stay in the system. I care about having a player in our organization that can, eventually, contribute at the MLB level. If that player can't contribute at the MLB level, I care about dealing him to someone that will give me someone that could possibly contribute. Sending him down to Billings would absolutely destroy his value. He's a 4 year college player, not a H.S. kid. Keeping him at Dayton and hoping he turns his season around is what everyone else does and rarely gets rewarded for. Pushing him up to High A is just the kind of creative thing we need. If (and it's an if) he succeeds at that level, he's started to add more value back to us. Other teams could rationalize that he is advancing and improving and if he were made available immediately after experiencing some success, we might see something in return for him. That would also coincide nicely with including him in on a deadline deal at the major league level. Right now, nobody thinks he's improving and most think he's a bust. You're not going to change anyone's mind on that unless you advance him to a higher level and he succeeds there. Sure there is a high probability that he'll fail. So what? He's failing now. If he can't be moved in a trade this year, you've given him a little bit of exposure to High A this year, a level he should be advanced to next year, regardless. So he's really getting a look at what he'll be facing next year and hopefully it will sober him up to work harder this offseason. I think it's a great idea, M2.

[pedro]

How good is his arm? Could he conceivably be converted into a pitcher?

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by pedro

How good is his arm? Could he conceivably be converted into a pitcher?

From what I've seen he's got a decent arm. I've never heard anyone rave about it, but it is accurate and it's not weak. I wouldn't have the first clue as to how hard he would throw on the mound. I don't think he'd push the low 90's, though, probably mid-high 80's, just from what I've seen in person, but again, that's just a wild guess.

dougdirt might have a better idea on how realistic a move to the mound would be for Stubbs.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Triples

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up. I'd would concede on this one if it weren't for the fact that Stubbs was a #1 pick. No one is going to simply ignore him. every player drafted below him wants to better him, I don't care what league he's playing in except maybe the majors

Maybe, maybe not. Won't know if you don't try.

Originally Posted by Triples

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling. Isn't it true that the pitchers that move up in the system are those that pitch better? And isn't it true that those that pitch better are those that have developed more than one pitch? If that's correct, then why would high A be more fastball heavy than Low A or Rookie ball/

It's not that it's more fastball heavy than lower levels (and obviously he'll be seeing better pitchers), but the "stuff" he sees there won't be completely alien to what he's seen at the college level.

Originally Posted by Triples

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status. Because the odds highly favor him flopping at a higher level worse than he did at the lower level, then he would have zero value.

He's already at zero. Can't go lower. The kid is failing like crazy in Dayton. Again, my concern is that recovering in Dayton doesn't do much for his market value. Moving up a level and doing better, that restores some luster. Stubbs can fail anywhere and probably will the way he's going at the moment. I'm just trying to devise a scheme where some limited success on his part could pay dividends for the Reds.

Originally Posted by Triples

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft. OK, then trade him now while there maybe someone out there that thinks he something that he's heretofore shown he's not. Don't send him up so he can fail again and make him have no value.

I'm all for trading him now, but he's already thrown up the red flag. Things have already gone horribly wrong. If you want to get something for him, you're probably going to have to figure out how to reconvince some potential buyers.

Originally Posted by Triples

One other consideration about sending him to High A. There's that little thing called confidence. I have to think its at low tide for Stubbs right now. If he goes to High A and falls on his face, he may be ruined.

Or maybe it acts a massive confidence booster, a clear sign that the Reds think he's still the real deal. Frankly, I don't see where failing at a higher level is worse than failing at a lower level (something he's already doing) in terms of confidence. Beyond that, I'm not particulary interested in what's best for Drew Stubbs. My goal would be to make him some other organization's problem.

Originally Posted by Triples

No one has questioned his athletic ability or makeup, may be he is just a late bloomer (so to speak). Let him find his way in a league where he has a chance at some success. Someone suggested sending him back to Billings. That may not be a bad idea if its presented to him in the right way.

He has a chance at having some success at high A too. Not a good chance, but that's the case where he is right now too. Sending down a guy like Stubbs to the Pioneer League a year after he was drafted out of the top tier of college ball would be like applying chloroform to his prospect status, like stamping the word "FAILURE" across his forehead. It wouldn't matter what he did down there and God forbid that he struggle there too, because that would turn him into a punchline. You render him utterly worthless if you demote him.

Originally Posted by Triples

This may sound like I'm down on Drew Stubbs, but I'm not. I just disagree with the notion that the thing to do with him is to push him to the next level and that will somehow either make him better of increase his value.

If he plays well, it unquestionably would increase his value. You're trying to hedge your development bets with him. I'm not. I'm saying go all in on a big bet that he'll respond well to a two-month promotion and look to flip him this winter.