Radical Drw Stubbs idea, promote him

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by M2

I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

Heck, if you're going to do that why wouldn't you just send him to AA which is at least a bit more of a friendly enviroment for hitters. His ISOD is respectable, so he may hold his own (respectively, of course) there as much as he would in the FSL. Its a risky proposition regardless, in that if he continues to have a bad season it basically destroys any hope of getting something out of him in a trade, throw in or not. It also could destroy what little confidence he may have left in his hitting ability (or lack there of). If he stays in Dayton and he continues his path, he may not get much by himself, but he could be an interesting throw in to some teams in order to get a better player.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by rdiersin

Heck, if you're going to do that why wouldn't you just send him to AA which is at least a bit more of a friendly enviroment for hitters. His ISOD is respectable, so he may hold his own (respectively, of course) there as much as he would in the FSL. Its a risky proposition regardless, in that if he continues to have a bad season it basically destroys any hope of getting something out of him in a trade, throw in or not. It also could destroy what little confidence he may have left in his hitting ability (or lack there of). If he stays in Dayton and he continues his path, he may not get much by himself, but he could be an interesting throw in to some teams in order to get a better player.

Again, I fail to see what's to lose--by promoting to the FSL or, as you say, AA?

Really--let's say he falls on his face at either stop: what happens? And who cares?

Risk of him failing is much less consequential than the possible reward of him becoming something more than a throw-in in a trade (which is to say, nothing). He's never going to be the principal in a trade, so why not try to make him a prospect-level piece?

[Red Leader]

One thing Drew has in his corner is that he won't be overmatched on the defensive side of the ball. Even if you put him at AA, he still should be one of the better defensive CFers in the league.

[Rojo]

Why not? Even Judy's have hot streaks and Stubby's due. It might be nice if it was at a higher level.

Of course, if that happened, we'd only sucker ourselves.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Again, I fail to see what's to lose--by promoting to the FSL or, as you say, AA?

Really--let's say he falls on his face at either stop: what happens? And who cares?

Risk of him failing is much less consequential than the possible reward of him becoming something more than a throw-in in a trade (which is to say, nothing). He's never going to be the principal in a trade, so why not try to make him a prospect-level piece?

I don't disagree with that. But it still becomes an all or almost nothing proposition, instead of there being a maybe. That's all I meant. To the organization, it probably isn't that risky, in that if he fails there are others than can be an adequate throw in. But to some GMs (Jim Bowden raise your hand) a maybe is quite a lot.

I still think that if you do this sort of thing you go big or don't go at all. I just am not sure I see the advantage of moving up to the FSL.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Of course, if that happened, we'd only sucker ourselves.

That was my first thought as well.

Unfortunately, we don't have any forward thinking people in the organization to come up with something like this, so I doubt you'll see Stubbs go anywhere this season, realistically. That's why this organization drives me crazy. Seems like they run it the same as they did back in the 70's.

[bucksfan2]

So Stubbs has had around one year hitting with a wooden bat in professional baseball and everyone and their brother is ready to give up on him. Them people say well hes an older prospect and he shoudl be dominating low A ball. Wasn't Ryan Howard an older prospect. People fail to realize that Howard and Dunn are around the same age. The reds and this front office especially are not going to give up on Stubbs after one year of professional baseball. Not to mention this entire year he has been playing hurt. I have never had turf toe but I hear it is no fun. Why dont we quit with the stubbs bashing and start to give updates on Tim Lincecum?

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by M2

I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

I couldn't agree anymore to the bolded statement, however....

The Reds recently have shown nothing but an inability to judge talent on both their roster(s) and in the draft. The Reds don't know their "keepers" vs their trading chips.

Stubbs never had value for the Reds, and was one of the worst selections in Reds drafting history.

[rdiersin]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

So Stubbs has had around one year hitting with a wooden bat in professional baseball and everyone and their brother is ready to give up on him. Them people say well hes an older prospect and he shoudl be dominating low A ball. Wasn't Ryan Howard an older prospect. People fail to realize that Howard and Dunn are around the same age. The reds and this front office especially are not going to give up on Stubbs after one year of professional baseball. Not to mention this entire year he has been playing hurt. I have never had turf toe but I hear it is no fun. Why dont we quit with the stubbs bashing and start to give updates on Tim Lincecum?

Its not really bashing, but rather trying to make an honest assesment. I take it you are fine with Stubbs as is? Howard, while playing low A at a similar age, isn't a very good comparison now is it? I mean he hit decently in his low A season. Stubbs on the other hand hasn't shown much power at all and hasn't hit the ball with much consistency. Those are legitimate concerns. Especially considering another Reds prospect, who had similar problems, in B.J. Szymanski.

Why give updates on Lincecum? Would you think the same updates for Homer would be as fair? I would love to have another guy that can (and is) strike out over a batter an inning right now. Not that it has anything to do with this discussion.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

So Stubbs has had around one year hitting with a wooden bat in professional baseball and everyone and their brother is ready to give up on him. Them people say well hes an older prospect and he shoudl be dominating low A ball. Wasn't Ryan Howard an older prospect. People fail to realize that Howard and Dunn are around the same age. The reds and this front office especially are not going to give up on Stubbs after one year of professional baseball. Not to mention this entire year he has been playing hurt. I have never had turf toe but I hear it is no fun. Why dont we quit with the stubbs bashing and start to give updates on Tim Lincecum?

I have not given up on Drew Stubbs. There is no reason to. He is struggling so far. That happens sometimes.

People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart. People already give updates on Lincecum every time he pitches almost. Its ridiculous around here sometimes.

[lollipopcurve]

My .02...

Too early to give up on Stubbs or on your development team's ability to teach the kid to hit. He's been in pro ball 1 year. Now, if his name were a critical piece in a deal that brings the Reds a very nice arm, I wouldn't be bothered if Stubbs were traded. But, while he's in the organization, you have to do what's best for the kid's development.

For me, a key decision at this point is medical -- is his turf toe a significant drag on his performance? If so, I'd consider having him get the surgery in July or early August and be at full strength sooner for the off-season and 08. The way he's going now, he could end up at .200 and his confidence could get really damaged. If the turf toe is not really a problem, and he's just at a loss at the plate, you have to consider a demotion to Billings, where he could get some feel back. If he strokes it out there for a month, maybe then you vault him to Sarasota in August to join other ex-Daytoners (hopefully Valaika and Turner), but more as a reward and momentum builder for 08 than a bid to polish him for a trade -- though, as I said, if he could help bring back a very nice arm, I wouldn't blink at dealing him.

The signs aren't good on Stubbs, but we can't discount his medical situation, and, in my opinion, 1 year is too little time to think of him as nothing but a trading chip. A promotion to Sarasota is too risky -- it's a tough hitter's league, and if he were to bomb his confidence would be seriously gashed. My feeling all along on Stubbs is that it could take 2-3 years for his bat to come, with the biggest risk being that offensive struggles could infect his whole game and outlook. He may be in that territory now, I don't know, but sending him to high A would make it all the more likely. I wouldn't take that risk with him at this point.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart. People already give updates on Lincecum every time he pitches almost. Its ridiculous around here sometimes.

Have you ever criticized a Reds' prospect?

[Triples]

Amen Doug Dirt: Geez, the guy is what 22 or 23? Everyone is looking for the next 19 year old phenom. They call them phenoms because they come along so rarely.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I have not given up on Drew Stubbs. There is no reason to. He is struggling so far. That happens sometimes.

People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart. People already give updates on Lincecum every time he pitches almost. Its ridiculous around here sometimes.

[Redman15]

Why are the Reds waiting so long to move Valiaka and Turner? Cozart is already in Dayton. I bet he plays today. Do think they are waiting for Frazier to sign and get to Dayton before they bump them up?

[flyer85]

I can't imagine the Reds FO has seen enough to give up on him yet. Usually teams ride their #1 picks until the outcome is beyond obvious.