Player A and Player B

[jojo]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

If Dunn does what he is doing for a contending team right now they go on a 10 game win streak. This streak he is on can absolutly carry a good club. Every player in a full year will hit their peaks and valleys. But there are only a handful of players who can do what Dunn has done over the past weeks. You can dislike his defense (his zone ratings aren't as bad as people think) you can dislike his strikeouts, or dislike what you think his attitude is, but when you boil it down he is a very very productive player. If he is traded they need to get a lot in return. I remember when the LAA said that Krivsky was asking for too much in the Dunn talks but ask LAA if Dunn does what he is doing now in the playoffs how a WS Title would feel.

Minus a 4 game stretch in the middle of the month, Dunn has batted .228 (15-66) with 4 hr for June.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by jojo

Minus a 4 game stretch in the middle of the month, Dunn has batted .228 (15-66) with 4 hr for June.

Thats kind of ironic because last time I checked if you won 4 games in a playoff seires that means you win.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Thats kind of ironic because last time I checked if you won 4 games in a playoff seires that means you win.

What does that have to do with anything?

[Cyclone792]

Here's a fun one ...

Adam Dunn 2007: .271/.362/.575/.937 and a 137 OPS+
Player B: .332/.380/.507/.887 and a 131 OPS+

Player B is a 27-year-old left fielder with slightly above average defense who also plays in the same league run environment as Adam Dunn.

Which do you take?

[jojo]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Thats kind of ironic because last time I checked if you won 4 games in a playoff seires that means you win.

Right but this thread is about properly assigning player worth and context is everything.

I wasn't trying to rag on you (or Dunn for that matter) but IMHO, your post illustrated the concept that there is perception of performance and there is true performance. Dunn will have very good June numbers. But the reality is that he really only had a great 4 days and a pretty average rest of the month. It may seem like hairsplitting but when deciding how to value a player, a key part of the equation is what should you reasonably expect him to do in the future (that's what you'll be paying him for anyway). Using Dunn's June as a primary marker, it's very probable that his bat would be greatly overvalued relative to his true ability.

Context is absolutely everything when determining a player's true worth.

[red-in-la]

No need to worry; neither player A nor player B are worth the money.

[RichRed]

Originally Posted by jojo

Using Dunn's June as a primary marker, it's very probable that his bat would be greatly overvalued relative to his true ability.

Context is absolutely everything when determining a player's true worth.

True, but the question in the original post was:

If Player B continues at his current level of offensive production, wouldn't he be well worth the salary he is due next year?

Now maybe he'll slump again toward the end of the season and maybe he won't but the way the question is worded, my answer is still yes.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by jojo

Right but this thread is about properly assigning player worth and context is everything.

I wasn't trying to rag on you (or Dunn for that matter) but IMHO, your post illustrated the concept that there is perception of performance and there is true performance. Dunn will have very good June numbers. But the reality is that he really only had a great 4 days and a pretty average rest of the month. It may seem like hairsplitting but when deciding how to value a player, a key part of the equation is what should you reasonably expect him to do in the future (that's what you'll be paying him for anyway). Using Dunn's June as a primary marker, it's very probable that his bat would be greatly overvalued relative to his true ability.

Context is absolutely everything when determining a player's true worth.

Fair enough. I am just trying to say that Dunn's average June with a 4 game great stretch is enough to put a team over the hump and into the playoffs. And if Dunn gets hot in the playoffs his bat is enough to carry the team to a title. Beltran is a different type player than Dunn but his performance in the playoffs almost got the Astros to the world series. Dunn has the potential to do that same thing.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by RichRed

True, but the question in the original post was:



Now maybe he'll slump again toward the end of the season and maybe he won't but the way the question is worded, my answer is still yes.

While not in this thread, I'm on record as suggesting that Dunn is a reasonable bet to earn his option year salary. I'm not giddy enough about the prospect that he'll be well worth his '08 salary though. I basically think if the Reds pick up Dunn's option, they'll pay him pretty much the going rate. While not a bargain or great value, I don't see the room to complain either.

If the market continues to be a player market, the price of wins could increase enough to make $13M for Dunn be a value. If the market corrects, then it's possible that Dunn could be overpaid at $13M.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Which do you take?

Dunn.

I hate batting avg

[RedsManRick]

Please tell me you made up player B, Cyclone -- I can figure out who it is. Thinking it's somebody from the BRM, but can't find it.

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Please tell me you made up player B, Cyclone -- I can figure out who it is. Thinking it's somebody from the BRM, but can't find it.

I thought it might be too. But Foster had a 150 OPS+ in his age 27 season and Rose's was 152.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by jojo

Right but this thread is about properly assigning player worth and context is everything.

I wasn't trying to rag on you (or Dunn for that matter) but IMHO, your post illustrated the concept that there is perception of performance and there is true performance. Dunn will have very good June numbers. But the reality is that he really only had a great 4 days and a pretty average rest of the month. It may seem like hairsplitting but when deciding how to value a player, a key part of the equation is what should you reasonably expect him to do in the future (that's what you'll be paying him for anyway). Using Dunn's June as a primary marker, it's very probable that his bat would be greatly overvalued relative to his true ability.

Context is absolutely everything when determining a player's true worth.

I see your point about how the four-day stretch skewed Dunn's overall June numbers. However, isn't this true of most players? Don't most good players have little mini-streaks that make their overall numbers look better than they otherwise would?

Take Ryan Howard for example. He's had a hot June as well, with 9 HR and 24 RBI. However, if you take out a four-game stretch where he played against KC and the White Sox, he'd only have 5 HR and 19 RBI--not nearly so gangbusters.

Good players, it seems, always have hot streaks. Are you claiming that Dunn is more streaky (and hence less valuable) than other players? Is there any way to prove this with more than just "during this 4 game stretch..." type arguments?

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Please tell me you made up player B, Cyclone -- I can figure out who it is. Thinking it's somebody from the BRM, but can't find it.

Originally Posted by dabvu2498

I thought it might be too. But Foster had a 150 OPS+ in his age 27 season and Rose's was 152.

He's a real player, not fictionalized, but he never played for the Reds.

What I found interesting is the league run environment during that player's season is almost identical to the National League in 2007, and that player also played in a hitter's park for his home park, just like Dunn in 2007.

[RichRed]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

He's a real player, not fictionalized, but he never played for the Reds.

What I found interesting is the league run environment during that player's season is almost identical to the National League in 2007, and that player also played in a hitter's park for his home park, just like Dunn in 2007.

It's Hall-of-Famer Joe Medwick.