Originally Posted by jojo
Here's a point that I don't think someone directly brought up though there was a comment earlier about streakiness. This of course is a generalization (i.e. it might simply be a unsupported belief). Guys like a Dunn, Howard, or Sexson tend to be very streaky. Whereas production like Medwick's tends to be a little more even keeled.
While both types of players get the same production ultimately, I wonder if one isn't more valuable if indeed it's a more consistent, steady production (i.e. spreading it out might impact more games than bursts of production might).
One of my all time favorite players is John Olerud. I would take him over Dunn any day of the week. Interestingly, another firstbaseman beat him out in the MVP voting in 1993 and it was a complete hose job IMHO owing to the power and influence of the long ball. Factor in the defense of Olerud vs Thomas and that year Olerud was clearly superior.
It was me who brought up the concept of "streakiness." It may be because I'm not up to date on all the recent state-of-the-art stat measurements, but I feel like it is a bit disingenuous to make arguments like "If you take out x game stretch, his stats aren't very good." IMO, almost ALL players put together a few games where they produce at a higher level. It seems to me that Dunn, because he walks alot, contributes to the lineup's fire power even when he isn't hitting. In that way he is "streak proof"--and that's why you look for players with high OBP rather than high BA alone.
Are there any metrics we currently have to address "streakiness"? If not, it might be an interesting angle to look at with more fine-grained analysis. IMO, it's useless to say that Dunn is of lower value because he is streaky. It's a meaningless word that can be cherry picked and applied to the advantage of an argument.