Futures Game

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Screwball

Well Bruce is projected to be the next Larry Walker and he had several years putting up those types of numbers. 5 times in a 6 year span he OPSed over 1.000 and had 35+ doubles 4 times in that same span.

Of course, I just hope people don't expect these numbers in Jay Bruce's rookie season.

Bruce won't be playing in Coors during its heyday. Would you be excited if someone compared him to Dante Bichette, who had a few memorable years in Coors?

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

I think they should bump Bruce up to AAA before too long....and give him a shot in Spring Training if he has success in AAA

I'd let him stay at AA through the end of the year. He just got promoted a couple of weeks ago. He has a lot he can learn at AA still.

Let him start AAA next year, and he'll earn himself a call-up during mid-season. If it's in June next year, he'll be all of 21 years, 2 months old when it happens.


.........unless he spends the next 30 days with an OPS of 1.200 or higher, then bring him up to AAA.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Bruce won't be playing in Coors during its heyday. Would you be excited if someone compared him to Dante Bichette, who had a few memorable years in Coors?

Did you forget where the Reds play their home games? Last I checked GABP is pretty comparable to Coors as far as being a hitters' park. And if someone told me Bruce projects to OPS .850+ year in and year out (he actually projects to do better) with 120+ RBIs, why wouldn't I be excited? And for the record, LW had some outstanding years in Montreal and St. Louis as well (OPS+ of 127, 142, 151, 120, 146, 129). It wasn't just in Coors.

I understand you want to temper your enthusiasm for a prospect, but Jay Bruce has the potential to be an elite player for years to come. OBM's projection isn't unrealistic at all.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Eric_Davis

Probably not.

Thanks for the well thought out reply.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Screwball

Did you forget where the Reds play their games? Last I checked GABP is pretty comparable to Coors as far as being a hitters' park. And if someone told me Bruce projects to OPS .850+ year in and year out (he actually projects to do better) with 120+ RBIs, why wouldn't I be excited?

I understand you want to temper your enthusiasm for a prospect, but Jay Bruce has the potential to be an elite player for years to come. OBM's projection isn't unrealistic at all.

Are you serious? Look at Larry Walker's 1999 splits:

Home: 1.410 OPS - Away: .894 OPS

Has anyone ever had splits like that in GABP? Or even splits which slightly resembled that?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Are you serious? Look at Larry Walker's 1999 splits:

Home: 1.410 OPS - Away: .894 OPS

Has anyone ever had splits like that in GABP? Or even splits which slightly resembled that?

What were his splits every other year in Colorado?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

What were his splits every other year in Colorado?

Year - Home/Away

1995: 1.131/.845
1996: 1.248/.523
1997: 1.169/1.176
1998: 1.240/.891
1999: 1.410/.894
2000: 1.061/.770

I'll stop here, since I think the point has been made. 1996 was extra special.

[Eric_Davis]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Thanks for the well thought out reply.

OK, maybe because his first two years in the minors he didn't even have an OPS over .900.

.815, .831, .871 his first 3 stops...for a total of .857. That's a very, very, very long way from 1.000+ every year in the Majors.

His first stop this year was tremendouse at .965, but again, that's a long way from 1.000+ every year in the Majors.

A perennial .900+ every year would be fantastic and more reasonable with one or two years topping 1.000.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Are you serious? Look at Larry Walker's 1999 splits:

Home: 1.410 OPS - Away: .894 OPS

Has anyone ever had splits like that in GABP? Or even splits which slightly resembled that?

Nice sample size. And I like how you carefully selected a year that would help your argument (which I'm not even sure why you're making, seeing as how Jay Bruce will be playing half his games in a hitters park as well). In 1997, Larry Walker's MVP year, his OPS at home: 1.169; on the road: 1.176. It was actually higher on the road. For his career, LW has done better at home than on the road (OPS 1.068 vs. .865), but an .850+ OPS on the road is still nothing to sneeze at.

Also, for his career Adam Dunn's OPS at home is .946. On the road it's nearly 100 points lower: .844. Scott Hatteberg's OPS at home last year: .935; on the road: .714.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Eric_Davis

OK, maybe because his first two years in the minors he didn't even have an OPS over .900.

Miguel Cabrera never OPS'd above .760 until his 4th year in the minors. Pujols OPS'd .921 in his only minor league season, and since then has five seasons in the majors with a 1.000+ OPS. Brian Giles posted an OPS above .900 only once in the minors (when he was 25) but has three 1.000+ OPS season plus many other .900+ OPS seasons in the majors. Chipper Jones has three 1.000+ OPS seasons in the majors compared to zero in the minors. This happens all the time. Players get better once they reach the majors and fully develop their body, in addition to the better coaching in the majors.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Eric_Davis

OK, maybe because his first two years in the minors he didn't even have an OPS over .900.

.815, .831, .871 his first 3 stops...for a total of .857. That's a very, very, very long way from 1.000+ every year in the Majors.

His first stop this year was tremendouse at .965, but again, that's a long way from 1.000+ every year in the Majors.

A perennial .900+ every year would be fantastic and more reasonable with one or two years topping 1.000.

Well his first two OPS's that you listed came under the 'take the first pitch rule'. So toss those out the window. The next one he was well over .900 before he was injured for hte last month of the season and hit under .200 in August.

Lets also note that Jay had the highest OPS of any player 20 or younger in the FSL since 2001 (and thats only back as far as I went, but it might go back further than that). Only one player had even had an OPS of .900 in the league such a young age and Jay posted one over .950. Now lets also add that he was one of the 10 youngest players in High A and we start to see just how ridiculous that is. Now that he is in AA, he has jsut continued to hit, hit and hit some more. Will Jay OPS over 1.000 in the majors? I have no idea, but I would lay down a lot of money if I could that he will OPS .900 consistantly.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Miguel Cabrera never OPS'd above .760 until his 4th year in the minors. Pujols OPS'd .921 in his only minor league season, and since then has five seasons in the majors with a 1.000+ OPS. Brian Giles posted an OPS above .900 only once in the minors (when he was 25) but has three 1.000+ OPS season plus many other .900+ OPS seasons in the majors. Chipper Jones has three 1.000+ OPS seasons in the majors compared to zero in the minors. This happens all the time. Players get better once they reach the majors and fully develop their body, in addition to the better coaching in the majors.

I would like to see the muscle mass for Giles and Pujols relative to their OPS.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Screwball

Nice sample size. And I like how you carefully selected a year that would help your argument (which I'm not even sure why you're making, seeing as how Jay Bruce will be playing half his games in a hitters park as well). In 1997, Larry Walker's MVP year, his OPS at home: 1.169; on the road: 1.176. It was actually higher on the road. For his career, LW has done better at home than on the road (OPS 1.068 vs. .865), but an .850+ OPS on the road is still nothing to sneeze at.

Also, for his career Adam Dunn's OPS at home is .946. On the road it's nearly 100 points lower: .844. Scott Hatteberg's OPS at home last year: .935; on the road: .714.

OK...here's a better sample size

Year - Home/Away

1995: 1.131/.845
1996: 1.248/.523
1997: 1.169/1.176
1998: 1.240/.891
1999: 1.410/.894
2000: 1.061/.770

I'll stop here, since I think the point has been made. 1996 was extra special.

Looks like 1997 was the outlier.

[edabbs44]

By the way, Larry Walker had a career BABIP of .385 at Coors Field. Just thought that was an interesting stat.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

OK...here's a better sample size



Looks like 1997 was the outlier.

OK? I'm still not seeing your point here. Yes LW (like most players) did better at home than he did on the road. But, like I said 3 times now, Jay Bruce will be playing his home games at GABP, a very hitter friendly ballpark like Coors. If Bruce is projected to be the next Larry Walker, then why shouldn't we expect him to OPS (and hit HRs, doubles, etc.) at the same clip at home - and therefore overall - as LW did?