Oh man...an "ah-ha" moment regarding 2008

[Ltlabner]

I took a look at our current normal starting line up guys compared to the rest of MLB (AL and NL). What you see below is the ranking of our guys, sorted by VORP decending (150PA's).

     MLB 
POS  Rank YEAR  NAME             AGE  OBP  SLG  ISO  VORP   EqA 

C    28.  2007  David Ross       30  .251 .407 .211  -3.0  .217 
1    11.  2007  Scott Hatteberg  37  .409 .493 .175  19.1  .297 
2    9.   2007  Brandon Phillips 26  .323 .480 .205  17.0  .270 
3    22.  2007  Edwin E.         24  .353 .391 .121  6.3   .263 
SS   19.  2007  Alex Gonzalez    30  .295 .443 .195  5.5   .247 
LF   5.   2007  Adam Dunn        27  .356 .549 .291  22.7  .296 
CF   9.   2007  Josh Hamilton    26  .371 .543 .264  18.5  .298 
RF   3.   2007  Ken Griffey Jr.  37  .390 .568 .282  30.8  .315

At first glance it's not a totally dismal picture. 4 of the 8 are top 10 in all of baseball (this is offense only, obviously). Hatte just missed the cut, Edwin is in a sophmore slump and likely to rebound next year and while Ross sucks canal water at the plate he's likely to produce something (albiet a small something) over time by crushing mistake pitches and throwing out baseruners.

However, looking forward things start to get murky quick.

1B: Hatte is having a carear year. He's 37 and counting on this for a 3rd year would be foolhardy at best. Sell, sell, sell. But will Votto fill the void or flopola. Better get him up here toute sweet now so April 2nd, 2008 isn't his first at bat. If Votto flops...?

3B: I'm assuming EE rebounds from his extreemly slow start. But if he doesn't.....? Not to many folks in the pipeline.

SS: I can live with Gonzo until a lot of other problems are adressed. But if he is injured? Janish? Keppinger? (gasp.....) Castro?

RF: Love Jr. Love his stellar year. Love that he's finally healthy and enjoying himself. Love that he's chasing down 600 HR. Counting on him (1) being healthy in 2008 (2) producing the same numbers in 2008 or (3) even being with the team in 2008 is also foolhardy. If he's gone I'm assuming you slide Hamilton over and start Freel in CF ? Yuck.

CF: Hamilton...feal good story. I think we are starting to see a pattern. Will his body be able to withstand the riggors of an MLB schedule? He may be in tip-top shape now, but will all of those years of chemical abuse prevent him from playing a full year? If he goes down you start who in CF? Hopper? Freel? Hardly a long term soultion.

LF: Dunn. I hope we see him back in 2008. I also hope he doesn't start a slide towards Kevin Maas implosion around then. But if he is traded or his knees start to give out? Who goes into LF and gives you those sorts of numbers?

Of corse all of the other teams face the same issues. I'm not aware of any MLB team that has a all-MLB ready AAA team stashed away. But the cubbard is pretty dang bare here, and Wayne's had the benefit of mostly healthy players.

I don't want this to be a doom & gloom post (I doubt I would be accused of that anyway). But being slow, the lightbulb just went off in my head that Wayne has a serrious mountain to climb. There is a nice core of youth to build around, but Wayne has to be basically perfect in any moves he makes in the next 3 weeks as his margin for error is nill.

And none of this adresses the pitching, which is what's really bringing us down.

[westofyou]

Oh man...an "ah-ha" moment for 2008

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by westofyou

That is phenomenal.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

I took a look at our current normal starting line up guys compared to the rest of MLB (AL and NL). What you see below is the ranking of our guys, sorted by VORP decending (150PA's).

     MLB 
POS  Rank YEAR  NAME             AGE  OBP  SLG  ISO  VORP   EqA 

C    28.  2007  David Ross       30  .251 .407 .211  -3.0  .217 
1    11.  2007  Scott Hatteberg  37  .409 .493 .175  19.1  .297 
2    9.   2007  Brandon Phillips 26  .323 .480 .205  17.0  .270 
3    22.  2007  Edwin E.         24  .353 .391 .121  6.3   .263 
SS   19.  2007  Alex Gonzalez    30  .295 .443 .195  5.5   .247 
LF   5.   2007  Adam Dunn        27  .356 .549 .291  22.7  .296 
CF   9.   2007  Josh Hamilton    26  .371 .543 .264  18.5  .298 
RF   3.   2007  Ken Griffey Jr.  37  .390 .568 .282  30.8  .315

At first glance it's not a totally dismal picture. 4 of the 8 are top 10 in all of baseball (this is offense only, obviously). Hatte just missed the cut, Edwin is in a sophmore slump and likely to rebound next year and while Ross sucks canal water at the plate he's likely to produce something (albiet a small something) over time by crushing mistake pitches and throwing out baseruners.

However, looking forward things start to get murky quick.

1B: Hatte is having a carear year. He's 37 and counting on this for a 3rd year would be foolhardy at best. Sell, sell, sell. But will Votto fill the void or flopola. Better get him up here toute sweet now so April 2nd, 2008 isn't his first at bat. If Votto flops...?

3B: I'm assuming EE rebounds from his extreemly slow start. But if he doesn't.....? Not to many folks in the pipeline.

SS: I can live with Gonzo until a lot of other problems are adressed. But if he is injured? Janish? Keppinger? (gasp.....) Castro?

RF: Love Jr. Love his stellar year. Love that he's finally healthy and enjoying himself. Love that he's chasing down 600 HR. Counting on him (1) being healthy in 2008 (2) producing the same numbers in 2008 or (3) even being with the team in 2008 is also foolhardy. If he's gone I'm assuming you slide Hamilton over and start Freel in CF ? Yuck.

CF: Hamilton...feal good story. I think we are starting to see a pattern. Will his body be able to withstand the riggors of an MLB schedule? He may be in tip-top shape now, but will all of those years of chemical abuse prevent him from playing a full year? If he goes down you start who in CF? Hopper? Freel? Hardly a long term soultion.

LF: Dunn. I hope we see him back in 2008. I also hope he doesn't start a slide towards Kevin Maas implosion around then. But if he is traded or his knees start to give out? Who goes into LF and gives you those sorts of numbers?

Of corse all of the other teams face the same issues. I'm not aware of any MLB team that has a all-MLB ready AAA team stashed away. But the cubbard is pretty dang bare here, and Wayne's had the benefit of mostly healthy players.

I don't want this to be a doom & gloom post (I doubt I would be accused of that anyway). But being slow, the lightbulb just went off in my head that Wayne has a serrious mountain to climb. There is a nice core of youth to build around, but Wayne has to be basically perfect in any moves he makes in the next 3 weeks as his margin for error is nill.

And none of this adresses the pitching, which is what's really bringing us down.

The interesting thing here is that many people have been saying by trading either Dunn or Griffey would decimate the offense. For this season, maybe. But looking at the young core here (Dunn, Hamilton, Phillips, EdE) along with Votto and Bruce knocking on the door, it would be a great time to deal Griffey for some young pitching.

Grif will not be here when this team is successful and should be dealt for the highest return possible. It would be great to see him hit 600 as a Red, but it would be better to see the Reds in the playoffs in a few years by using the prospects received for him and the money saved to bolster the staff.

[JaxRed]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I wonder how many didn't "get that"...

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by JaxRed

I wonder how many didn't "get that"...

I certainly got it, you gotta watch the video footage of that it's hilarious. You should be able to find it on YouTube.

http://http://www.pimp-my-profile.co...php?tag=Ah+ha#

[Big Klu]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Originally Posted by JaxRed

I wonder how many didn't "get that"...

I started involuntarily whistling "Take On Me"! :

[LoganBuck]

Josh Hamilton = JD Drew

Tantalizing talent, lots of crazy injuries. He has been that way since he was drafted, even before the drug issues. Get used to the nagging stuff, durability will be an issue.

[RedsManRick]

There is certainly a legitimate question which says "how does this offense improve" in light of it's current design, particularly given that Dunn and Junior will likely be gone in 2 years, if not sooner. We essentially need 2 of Bruce, Votto, EE, Hamilton to turn in to legitimate all-star level producers or we're in trouble.

Cyclone, et. al. have shown that after adjusting for GABP, this offense is quite mediocre.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Josh Hamilton = JD Drew

Tantalizing talent, lots of crazy injuries. He has been that way since he was drafted, even before the drug issues. Get used to the nagging stuff, durability will be an issue.

It's way, way too early to say that. It was pretty much accepted before the season started that a 162 game year was out of the question with this guy. Drug issues have consumed pretty much all of his minor league career. We don't know what he'll be without them but we do know that he did not go into 2007 prepared to play 162.

[VR]

Originally Posted by Big Klu

I started involuntarily whistling "Take On Me"! :

it on my IPod , I guess it brings back good 80's memories

[westofyou]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H1NKuZPBcg