BA Midseason Top 100

[princeton]

Patton, Teagarden, Anderson and Drabek? Why, those are princeton cyberdraftees.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by BucksandReds

#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn

what makes you think that?

Dunn hit over .300 in his minor league career. He also struck at a lower rate than Bruce and walked at a much higher rate.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by BucksandReds

#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn
#2 He plays better defense than Dunn
#3 He'll hit for a higher average than Dunn
#4 His name is not Adam Dunn

1) Maybe, maybe not
2) Very true
3) Adam Dunn had a career minor league BA of .304 so who knows what to expect
4) Good point

Let's just hope Jay hits .300 w/RISP and has a dozen sac flies his rookie year.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by flyer85

what makes you think that?

Dunn hit over .300 in his minor league career. He also struck at a lower rate than Bruce and walked at a much higher rate.

Dunn in the minors was a different breed of hitter than he was once he stepped onto the field in the majors. They made dramatic changes in his approach when he got to the Reds.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Dunn in the minors was a different breed of hitter than he was once he stepped onto the field in the majors. They made dramatic changes in his approach when he got to the Reds.

and Jay Bruce isn't their yet and we really have no idea what will happen to him.

If he wasn't a Reds prospect people would be bothered by his high K rate and middling walk rate. I am not bothered by either individually but taken together his BB/K(98/244, 32/85 this year) rate is a yellow flag that everyone around here is just ignoring. A rate below 0.5 is a warning. All the other offensive players in the top 15 are at 0.5 or above.

Anyone want to know what can happen when you hit the majors vs the minors, take a look at Butler's and Saltalamacchia's BB/K ratios.

[Benihana]

Samardzija in any top prospect list is an absolute joke. He's putting up terrible numbers and there is already talk of converting him into an OF. That alone makes this list lose credibility.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by princeton

Patton, Teagarden, Anderson and Drabek? Why, those are princeton cyberdraftees.

so who did you cyberdraft this year?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by flyer85

and Jay Bruce isn't their yet and we really have no idea what will happen to him.

If he wasn't a Reds prospect people would be bothered by his high K rate and middling walk rate. I am not bothered by either individually but taken together his BB/K(98/244, 32/85 this year) rate is a yellow flag that everyone around here is just ignoring. A rate below 0.5 is a warning. All the other offensive players in the top 15 are at 0.5 or above.

As long as he is drawing a walk at or near once every 12 plate appearances, I am not worried at all about his walk rate. Strikeouts are nearly meaningless unless he gets into BJ Szymanski territory. Sure, some of the other guys have better walk/strikeouts rates. None of them have the power that Jay does though. Back to Jays walkrate though, since coming to AA it has improved quite a bit. He has 8 walks in 69 plate appearances and 18 strikeouts. He has also walked in 6 straight games down there. On the season he has 32 walks in 367 appearances, which has him walking once every 11.48 times he steps to the plate. Its not anything great, but it is well within acceptable lines for a 20 year old.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by BucksandReds

#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn
#2 He plays better defense than Dunn
#3 He'll hit for a higher average than Dunn
#4 His name is not Adam Dunn

None of that matters. If he Ks a bunch, he'll be a target, even if he puts up Pujols numbers.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not worried at all about his walk rate. Strikeouts are nearly meaningless unless he gets into BJ Szymanski territory.

BTW, strikeouts are either meaningless or they are not. Can't have it both ways. The truth be told, taken individually BB and Ks only paint a partial picture. Neither are particularly important on their own, but if you want a true picture of plate discipline the two stats always need to be evaluated together.

BB/K rates
.00 to .25 red flag(a hacker)
.25 to .50 yellow flag(a potential hacker moving forward)
.50 to .75 not a problem( somewhat patient hitter, keep an eye on it)
.75 and above - (hitter with plate discipline, very likely to have success going forward).

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

None of that matters. If he Ks a bunch, he'll be a target, even if he puts up Pujols numbers.

Thats not true at all. If he hits .280/.350/.550 with 35+ Hr and 100+ RBI it wont matter if he strikes out 125 times in a season. The only person that people complain about with strikeouts around here is AdamDunn and he strikes out mroe than anyone in the history of the game. If Adam Dunn were to strike out 180 times and do what Ryan Howard did last year, no one would complain because he put up 'numbers'. Honestly, your typical fan doesnt care that Adam Dunn walks 100 times a year because he doesnt drive in runs despite being a home run hitter.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by flyer85

BTW, strikeouts are either meaningless or they are not. Can't have it both ways. The truth be told, taken individually BB and Ks only paint a partial picture. Neither are particularly important on their own, but if you want a true picture of plate discipline the two stats always need to be evaluated together.

BB/K rates
.00 to .25 red flag(a hacker)
.25 to .50 yellow flag(a potential hacker moving forward)
.50 to .75 not a problem( somewhat patient hitter, keep an eye on it)
.75 and above - (hitter with plate discipline, very likely to have success going forward).

I see what you're saying, but I gotta agree with doug, it's a bit early to make any real determination here. What he's doing right is currently blowing away what he's doing "wrong."

This isn't troubling in the way Bailey's command problems are troubling, IMO.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If Adam Dunn were to strike out 180 times and do what Ryan Howard did last year, no one would complain because he put up 'numbers'.

Howard is striking out a higher rate than Dunn, if Howard had not spent time on the DL he would be on pace for 220+ Ks this season(yet Howard is still a productive hitter). The reason Dunn(and Howard as well) gets to put up those K numbers is simply because they still remain productive hitters while doing it. Other high K guys lose their productivity and their playing time as their Ks reach those levels, Dunn and Howard do not.

BTW, Kearns has cut his K rate down by 30-40% this year, not doing him a lot of good at the moment.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

What he's doing right is currently blowing away what he's doing "wrong."

This isn't troubling in the way Bailey's command problems are troubling, IMO.

It is simply a "yellow flag", that needs to be watched as he moves forward. Billy Butlers AAA vs majors stats give you an idea to what can actually happen to bb/k rates when a player hits the major leagues. I am not suggesting that Bulter will stay anywhere neat 1/16, he is almost a lock for future success a hitter based on his track record and great BB/K rates in the minors.

Bruce has a potential wart, all I am pointing out is that it is something to keep an eye on.

BTW, K/BB rates are very important in tracking minor league pitchers as well. It is why I have never been as high on Bailey as most around here.

For a minor league hitter a BB/K rate below 0.5 shows a lack of plate of plate discipline. A minor league pitcher with a K/BB rate below 2.0 shows a lack of dominance.

The other factor that is just as important when evaluating minor league numbers is age/level. Both Bruce and Bailey are way ahead of the curve on that one.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Benihana

so who did you cyberdraft this year?

on draft morning I went out to get a BA rag, and could find only the previous month's issue. So I was forced to pass -- the Reds were on their own for once. No pressure on them whatsoever.

they needed a year to catch up to me anyway.