Failed starters: a cheap bullpen fix?

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Kyle Lohse is bombing in 2 out of every 3 starts, but Wayne and his managers are content to stick with him instead of seeing if he can harness his stuff in the bullpen.

Not to turn this into a Kyle Lohse thread, but I think you can place his 18 starts into three categories.

1. Good - Great
2. Average
3. Bad - Really Bad

He's had 6 of each this year. I wouldn't categorize his six "average" starts as "bombing".

In all 6 "average" starts, he's gone at least 6 innings and given up on average 3 ER. I'll take that every day from a Kyle Lohse and those are his 6 "average" starts. What he does in his 6 "good-great" starts, not many other pitchers in the league have done this year.



1. (6) Good - Great starts:

48.1 IP
32 H
8 BB
33 K
.55 ERA
.83 WHIP
5-0 record

2. (6) Average starts:

39.2 IP
43 H
10 BB
20 K
4.31 ERA
1.34 WHIP
0-4 record

3. (6) Bad - Really Bad starts:

26.2 IP
51 H
11 BB
17 K
11.82 ERA
2.32 WHIP
0-6 record

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by flyer85

... and it won't help them this year. He is a Boras client and will go back to being a starter next year because that is where the money is. If Boras could get $9M out of Seattle after the year Weaver had in 2006 I hate to think what he will get for Lohse.

Maybe he'll fall in love with closing like Gagne did.

He's not helping the Reds as a starter either this year or next year. Maybe if he proves to be effective as a closer, the Reds can sign him to a decent deal. If not, no biggie.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

He's not helping the Reds as a starter either this year or next year. Maybe if he proves to be effective as a closer, the Reds can sign him to a decent deal.

Unless you are missing a ton of bats, relief performance tends to be volatile from year to year. I wouldn't trust Lohse as closer if he had a good stretch to end the season.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Not to turn this into a Kyle Lohse thread, but I think you can place his 18 starts into three categories.

1. Good - Great
2. Average
3. Bad - Really Bad

He's had 6 of each this year. I wouldn't categorize his six "average" starts as "bombing".

In all 6 "average" starts, he's gone at least 6 innings and given up on average 3 ER. I'll take that every day from a Kyle Lohse and those are his 6 "average" starts. What he does in his 6 "good-great" starts, not many other pitchers in the league have done this year.



1. (6) Good - Great starts:

48.1 IP
32 H
8 BB
33 K
.55 ERA
.83 WHIP
5-0 record

2. (6) Average starts:

39.2 IP
43 H
10 BB
20 K
4.31 ERA
1.34 WHIP
0-4 record

3. (6) Bad - Really Bad starts:

26.2 IP
51 H
11 BB
17 K
11.82 ERA
2.32 WHIP
0-6 record

Honestly, he's been pretty close to league average overall, so "bombing" wasn't the term I should have used.

I still think he'd be a better reliever than starter, and this team needs relievers like Garfield needs lasagna. The free agent crop of relievers for next season is thin at best, so it seems like the Reds should be trying to look for alternate sources of bullpen help.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by flyer85

Unless you are missing a ton of bats, relief performance tends to be volatile from year to year. I wouldn't trust Lohse as closer if he had a good stretch to end the season.

I don't trust anyone currently in the Reds bullpen. Lohse would be the lesser of 7 evils.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

I still think he'd be a better reliever than starter, and this team needs relievers like Garfield needs lasagna. The free agent crop of relievers for next season is thin at best, so it seems like the Reds should be trying to look for alternate sources of bullpen help.

I agree with you there, but anytime you can get 200+ IP of league average out of your #3-5 starter, you need to take it.

Besides, what good is the pen if you can't get there wihout the game being out of reach and Lohse consistently gets 6+ innings of pretty decent pitching.

Unless you are going to try him as a closer (and I don't think he has the make up for that), he's wasted in any other duty in the BP.


I want to point out that I agree with the original premise of the thread, just not for Lohse. I remember I think it was last year at some point, M2 brought up moving Milton to closer or some other part of the bullpen and I thought that made too much sense.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

I agree with you there, but anytime you can get 200+ IP of league average out of your #3-5 starter, you need to take it.

Besides, what good is the pen if you can't get there without the game being out of reach and Lohse consistently gets 6+ innings of pretty decent pitching.

The flip side is "What good is a rotation if your bullpen is going to blow every lead?"

And Lohse is anything but consistent.

I think the Reds will have better luck finding a league-average starter this offseason than in finding a lockdown bullpen arm. I'd like to know if Lohse could be that bullpen arm they're looking for.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

The flip side is "What good is a rotation if your bullpen is going to blow every lead?"

And Lohse is anything but consistent.

I think the Reds will have better luck finding a league-average starter this offseason than in finding a lockdown bullpen arm. I'd like to know if Lohse could be that bullpen arm they're looking for.

I think you need the rotation set first.

As for Lohse and consistency. I meant he gets you innings. Two-thirds of the time it's quality. I think you could name the same for many #3-5 starters around the league.

In 12 of his 18 starts:

88 IP
75 H
18 BB
53 K
2.35 ERA
1.06 WHIP
5-4 record

With 6 awful starts. Inconsistent? Perhaps. But, the inconsistency seems worth it for a 67% chance that you get the numbers above.

[Falls City Beer]

I'm a pretty huge supporter of shoveling failed starters to the bullpen. Preferably in a rebuilding year than in a contending one, but overall I'm absolutely supportive of doing this.

However, it'll likely take a stronghanded field manager to explain to said starter: shut your yap--it's the pen for you.

[edabbs44]

Some of the best relievers started out as starters. This only makes sense...maybe too much sense.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Honestly, what do the Reds have to lose by trying Lohse in the bullpen and, say, Saarloos in the rotation? Best case, Saarloos is marginally worse in the rotation than Lohse was, and Lohse develops into a closer and the Reds extend his contract 2 or 3 years on the cheap.

Firstly Lohse has been an average starter for us this year. A 4.23 DIPS ERA in GABP is actually pretty good.

Lohse is a FA next year, and might get,at least, a 3 year $18M deal considereing the lack of starting pitching in the majors.

If we put Lohse as closer, and he excels, I doubt we would be able to sign him "on the cheap" for 2-3 years as he will have expanded his options.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Firstly Lohse has been an average starter for us this year. A 4.23 DIPS ERA in GABP is actually pretty good.

Lohse is a FA next year, and might get,at least, a 3 year $18M deal considereing the lack of starting pitching in the majors.

If we put Lohse as closer, and he excels, I doubt we would be able to sign him "on the cheap" for 2-3 years as he will have expanded his options.

I really hope they don't sign him to a multi-year deal. If the only way to stop that is by making him a closer, then full steam ahead.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I really hope they don't sign him to a multi-year deal. If the only way to stop that is by making him a closer, then full steam ahead.

I am on the other side. I hope they do sign him. He is a little inconsistant but when he is on he is lights out. 2 years around 12M isn't bad for a guy expecially if they think he can pitch out of the pen if need be.

[15fan]

A few guys like Harang and Arroyo have the package to take the ball every 5th day, pitch into the late innings and keep the team in the game on a regular basis.

If I ran the circus, Bronson and Harang would be on a 5 day cycle. All the other arms go to the pen and I play match up baseball with them on the other 3 days. A 12 man staff gives me 10 guys to work with. Some guys are good for an inning or two, then hit the wall. Others fare particularly well against specific types of hitters. Exploit that to the fullest.

If nothing else, it would be fascinating to watch Tony LaRussa in the other dugout during the 15 games a year the Reds play the Cards. Would LaRussa follow suit and start pulling pitchers / double switching / using pinch hitters in the 2nd or 3rd inning? His head might explode by the final game of a 3 game series...