Trade Joey Votto?

[texasdave]

On the major league roster the Reds currently have three players holding down the corner OF/1B positions. (Griffey, Dunn and Hatteberg) But with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce knocking on the door that is soon about to change. You can't plug a five-player peg into a three-position hole leaving the Reds with a surplus. This surplus is good for the Reds' organization. It gives them options. Trading one or more of these players is a reasonable option. I think ideally trading two of them is the way to go. An easy choice would be to deal away Scott Hatteberg. He is older and his value likely will never be higher. But who should be the second choice? I would find it very difficult to get rid of Jay Bruce. IMO his ceiling is simply too high. That leaves Griffey, Dunn and Votto. Now if I remember correctly the lesson to be learned from Moneyball is to take advantage of what is over-valued and under-valued in the ballplayer market place. The trend recently seems to be that top prospects are becoming over-valued. Teams seem to be very reluctant to give up their top prospects; so one would think that if a top-20 prospect was dangled there would be great interest in that prospect. This interest could likely drive up the return nicely. Couple this with the fact that there will be clubs willing to move proven talent for some level of salary relief, and WK would be smart to dangle Joey V. and see what sort of arms he could get in return. Then when Jay Bruce arrives in Cincinnati either Griffey or Dunn could be moved to first. And we all live happily ever after.

[joshnky]

To begin with I would be shocked if this happened because not only does the market over value prospests so do the Reds (and sometimes the market is correct). However, if the Reds were able to get a Dunn or Griffey-like return for Votto, meaning a couple major league ready arms (which I think is unrealistic), then its a great deal. However, the converse of the argument that you should trade whats currently valued (prospects) is that what you will want in return is also valued, meaning prospects.

I'm not sure this line of reasoning works well because there is a reason why prospects and pitching are valued so highly. Its because they're either cheap with high risk/reward or they're rare in the case of quality pitching.

[George Anderson]

I am from the school of thought that no one in this organization is untouchable if the return is right. However the return on Votto better be amazingly good because I have heard nothing but good things about this kid. Personally i would rather see him up on the Reds soon and lets see just how good or potentially good he may be!!

[The Snow Chief]

No. We must keep good young talent. I would want to trade Griffey before Votto. The deal would have to be amazing in terms of young star prospects for me to want to part withHarang, Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Phillips, Votto, or Bruce. With the possible exception of Edwin, everyone else would be on the trade market.

[Degenerate39]

Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by degenerate10

Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

[Degenerate39]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

No I didn't read the post I'm just saying.

[forfreelin04]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

They have Bruce, Votto, Jr. Dunn and Hamilton. Too many lefties. The Reds record versus lefties is a atriocious because no one this side of B Phil has had their way with lefties. I think Dunn will be gone (that day I will be dancing in the streets... just a personal preference) I would like to see the Reds deal Dunn, Votto, Hatteburg, Conine, Weathers, Stanton, Loshe, Freel and Valentin in return for solid prospects and maybe a few spare parts. Use the freed up money to sign a free agent right handed first baseman with some serious pop. Thus next year lineup looks like this assuming Bruce arrives.(big if) Not to mention, theres the chance of getting some other prospects via trade for a bench or possible starting role depending on the return.

CF Hamilton
3b EDe
CF Griffey
1b FA
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Gonzo
C Ross

[AmarilloRed]

If you trade Joey Votto; why not trade Homer Bailey? I am trying to be patient but it is difficult. Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years, and who knows if Dunn or Griffey will be here when Bruce makes the Reds. I can understand if youwould trade Hatteberg or Conine, but I wouldn't trade Votto or Bailey under any circumstances

[George Anderson]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years

In the early 80's, myself and many others had no doubt that Paul Householder would be the next Reds star right fielder for the next 15-20 years, and we know how that panned out.

I am not advocating trading Votto but to label this guy as an untouchable, a can't miss prospect, or the first baseman for the next 15-20 years is just a tad bit premature.

[AmarilloRed]

Originally Posted by George Anderson

In the early 80's, myself and many others had no doubt that Paul Householder would be the next Reds star right fielder for the next 15-20 years, and we know how that panned out.

I am not advocating trading Votto but to label this guy as an untouchable, a can't miss prospect, or the first baseman for the next 15-20 years is just a tad bit premature.

I may have overstated my case a bit. However, I don't see any reasonable case where a trade of Votto should be contemplated. I think both he and Bruce can be a important part of the Reds offense for a long time in the years to come. It is true that you never know how any prospect will do at the major league level. However, unless you are one player away from making the playoffs, you should never trade any of your top prospects for an unknown return. I would react the same way if anyone suggested trading Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce. Votto will not be as good as either of them, but he will most likely be a significant upgrade over Hatteberg. I also don't think suggesting putting Griffey or Dunn at first bas makes a lot of sense.

[joshnky]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years, and who knows if Dunn or Griffey will be here when Bruce makes the Reds.

Wow, someone is very optimistic. The chances that Votto is still a Red in 15 years is virtually nill. We have no idea how Votto will do in the big leagues much like we don't know how long Dunn or Griffey will be here. I contest that if you could get the same return for Votto that you could for Dunn, you trade Votto. I believe that is what the original poster was suggesting. You capitalize on the players that might be overvalued. Dunn is a proven (albeit expensive) quantity whereas Votto has a huge risk/reward. If someone is willing to pay for him let them take on the risk. When considering Homer there is also a risk/reward situation; however, in his case the possible reward is far to great to relinquish the player. Elite pitchers are key to the success of a franchise (see Santana) and the only way to obtain them is through the draft or while they're still in the minors.

I want to wrap this up by saying that I don't believe anyone will give us a Dunn-like return for Votto and I hope we keep him. But he is far from untouchable.

[AmarilloRed]

I did say I overstated my case; however, he could very well be our first baseman 15 years from now. He is a major-league ready prospect who is set to come up to the Reds any day now. He is a very talented prospect,and you keep those. He is untouchable unless you can get a similary talented prospect in a trade who plays first base. We have no one else in our system at first base who has the ceiling Joey Votto has. I respect the poster, but his suggestion makes no sense.

[texasdave]

Even if you trade Hatteberg you will still have four players (Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce) for three positions (LF, RF and 1B). Most observers feel Votto is ready, and IMO Bruce is not too far behind. Do you then sit one on the bench? That seems a waste of talent. A trade is the likeliest solution. The names are interchangeable but the basic question becomes this: As the Reds move into 2008 and beyond do you like having Adam Dunn and the return on a trade of Votto; or do you prefer Joey Votto and the return on a trade of Dunn. Will another club give you more for six years control of the 'potential' that Votto brings, or, quite possibly, 2 months of the 'known value' that Dunn brings? Keep in mind that moving Dunn will give the team some payroll flexibility. And payflex is nice. But after watching this team over the years it appears to me that payflex is a tease. It holds more promise than it delivers. How many big-time free agents have the Reds acquired over the years? Wasn't the Kearns-Lopez trade supposed to give Cincinnati some payflex this past winter? How did that work out? Maybe that is the fault of the GM and maybe not. To me the bottom line is that Adam Dunn is young enough and proven enough that the Reds just may want to hold on to him. And if a trade of Joey Votto were to deliver more than a trade of Adam Dunn, that might be the way to go.

[Degenerate39]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Even if you trade Hatteberg you will still have four players (Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce) for three positions (LF, RF and 1B). Most observers feel Votto is ready, and IMO Bruce is not too far behind. Do you then sit one on the bench?

Why can't they try Bruce in center field?

In my opinion Bruce won't be up this year or maybe through most of next year. If were going to trade Griffey or Dunn why not trade Griffey? He's the older of the two hes the bigger name. How much longer is Griffey going to be around? Will he stay healthy for the remainder of his career? One thing about Dunn is he's most likely going to stay healthy throughout the season and he's going to hit you 40 home runs. He's not a question mark like Griff is health-wise.