2007-2008 Estimated Payroll

[Chip R]

Now that the season is winding down, talk turns to what payroll will be for next season. Now I'm in the dark as much as anyone with regards on what the Reds will do next year but what I'm attempting to do with this thread is basically show what the 2008 payroll could be if all players that the Reds do not have an obligation to in 2008 aren't re-signed. I have included Adam Dunn in this list simply because the only obligation the Reds have to him in 2008 is a $500K buyout. Whether or not they will exercise the option doesn't matter as far as this post goes.

This is broken down into 5 sections: 1. Arbitration eligible players (players who have 3-6 years in the big leagues) 2. Arbitration ineligible players (Players with less than 3 years in the majors. 3. Salary increases (players who have over 6 years service time and are signed through next season and will receive a raise for sure) 4. Salary decreases (players with over 6 years service time who can be free agents) 5. No changes in salary (Players who are signed through next season who will receive the same salary)

The 2008 salaries for the arbitration eligible and ineligible players are guesstimates and shouldn't really be too far off in what they will make in reality. There are a lot of players in the arbitration ineligible area and obviously all those guys didn't make what it says they did this year nor will they make what I estimate them to make in 08 because a lot of them will be in the minors. But that's not going to throw off the total by that much either way. I also had them being paid their full salary even if they were here a short time and are on split contracts but are still in the Reds organization. It's too much of a pain to figure out what Brad Salmon made while he was in the major leagues. The $390K figure is the minimum salary next season.

Most of these numbers are from JaxRed's site. It's also crosschecked with ESPN's and Cot's figures. The only salaries that I'll differ on are Jr.'s and Arroyo's. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are laying out $12.5M a year for Jr. And Arroyo's salary for next year includes his bonus. All players included either are or were on the 40 man roster at one time or another this year or were on the payroll last year and the Reds either exercised their buyout (as in Paul Wilson's case) or are paying part of their salary (as in Jason LaRue's case). Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.

Arbitration Eligible    2007 Salary 2008 Salary                         
Kirk Saarloos           1,200,000   1,750,000                           
Brandon Phillips          407,500   1,800,000                           
Victor Santos             500,000     600,000                           
Matt Belisle              390,000     500,000                           
Total Arb Eligible     $2,497,500  $4,650,000                           
 
Arbitration Ineligible  2007 Salary 2008 Salary                         
Homer Bailey              380,000     400,000                           
Bill Bray                 382,500     400,000                           
Jared Burton              380,000     390,000                           
John Coutlangus           380,000     400,000                           
Phil Dumatrait            380,000     400,000                           
Edwin Encarnacion         407,500     550,000                           
Michael Gosling           380,000     400,000                           
Josh Hamilton             380,000     450,000                           
Norris Hopper             380,000     400,000   
Jeff Keppinger            380,000     400,000   
Bobby Livingston          380,000     400,000   
Pedro Lopez               250,000     390,000   
Gary Majewski             390,000     420,000   
Marcus McBeth             380,000     400,000   
Brad Salmon               380,000     390,000   
Ricky Stone               380,000     450,000   
Joey Votto                      0     390,000   
Total Arb Ineligible   $5,990,000  $7,030,000   
 
Salary Increases        2007 Salary 2008 Salary 
Todd Coffey               400,000     925,000   
Aaron Harang            4,275,000   6,750,000   
David Weathers          2,500,000   2,750,000   
Bronson Arroyo          3,800,000   6,400,000
Ryan Freel              2,650,000   3,000,000
Juan Castro               925,000     975,000
Alex Gonzalez           3,500,000   4,625,000
Mike Stanton            2,750,000   3,000,000
David Ross              1,600,000   2,525,000
Total Salary Increase $22,400,000 $30,950,000
 
Salary Decreases        2007 Salary 2008 Salary
Scott Hatteberg         1,500,000     175,000   
Mark Bellhorn             380,000           0
Jeff Conine             2,000,000           0
Rheal Cormier           2,250,000           0
Chris Denorfia             80,000           0
Adam Dunn              10,500,000     500,000
Eddie Guardado            500,000           0
Jason LaRue             2,950,000           0
Kyle Lohse              2,800,000           0
Eric Milton             9,000,000           0
Chad Moeller              700,000           0
Javier Valentin         1,250,000           0
Paul Wilson               850,000           0
Total Salary Decrease $34,760,000    $675,000
 
No Changes In Salary    2007 Salary 2008 Salary 
Ken Griffey, Jr.       12,500,000  12,500,000
Total No Changes      $12,500,000 $12,500,000
 
Total                 $78,147,500 $55,805,000

[redsmetz]

You've got Saarloos listed twice; both under arbitration eligible and salary decreases.

[NJReds]

How is Dunn only making $500K next year? I thought his option was for 13M? (Edit: I see the Dunn explanation, but I think we have to assume they'll p/u the option, although with this front office, who knows.)

Nice to see Milton coming off the books. Unfortunately, it's not so nice to see Stanton on the books for $3M.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by NJReds

How is Dunn only making $500K next year? I thought his option was for 13M?

Nice to see Milton coming off the books. Unfortunately, it's not so nice to see Stanton on the books for $3M.

I think he's only examining outright obligations - if the Reds don't exercise Dunn's option, they're only out the $500,000 buyout.

[NJReds]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I think he's only examining outright obligations - if the Reds don't exercise Dunn's option, they're only out the $500,000 buyout.

Yeah. I saw that when I re-read the first post.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Just out of curiousity, has Bellhorn really been making $380K while spending his season in AAA? I'm not sure how that works.

Good work, Chip.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

You've got Saarloos listed twice; both under arbitration eligible and salary decreases.

The salary decrease was wishful thinking, I suppose. Thanks for pointing that out. It's fixed now.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Just out of curiousity, has Bellhorn really been making $380K while spending his season in AAA? I'm not sure how that works.

Good work, Chip.

As I said in my preface, even a guy who has been in AAA all year, if he's on the roster for a day, I'm going to say he was paid his big league salary whatever that may be. It's too hard to figure what pro-rated salaries are and with guys like that it isn't going to make a lot of difference.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

edit: just saw your response. Thanks.

I show Valentin with a $75K buyout and Hatteberg with a $150K buyout.

Funny. If the Reds let Dunn go, they essentially would be refusing to add only $2M to his salary, since they would be committed to the 500K buyout and he made $10.5 M in '07. This even makes Daugherty's article the other day all the more absurd.

[RichRed]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Funny. If the Reds let Dunn go, they essentially would be refusing to add only $2M to his salary, since they would be committed to the 500K buyout and he made $10.5 M in '07. This even makes Daugherty's article the other day all the more absurd.

Yep.

Nice work, Chip!

[camisadelgolf]

I believe Hatteberg is due to earn $1.85M next year, not $1.675M (and depending on plate appearances, it could be as much as $2M). Jerry Gil can be added to that list since I believe he's being paid the ML minimum this year. Also, I believe Moeller isn't earning all of the $700,000 (he might not even be earning half of that). Enrique Cruz and Elizardo Ramirez had ML salaries for short periods of time this year, too. I think Jorge Cantu has a ML salary of $410,000 this year. And finally, if Guardado returns this year, he could earn more than $500,000. I hope that helps. Thank you for posting this.

[Marc D]

Salary Increases

Coffey
Freel
Castro
Stanton
Ross

for a cool 2M

I'm thinking thats not so good.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I believe Hatteberg is due to earn $1.85M next year, not $1.675M (and depending on plate appearances, it could be as much as $2M). Jerry Gil can be added to that list since I believe he's being paid the ML minimum this year. Also, I believe Moeller isn't earning all of the $700,000 (he might not even be earning half of that). Enrique Cruz and Elizardo Ramirez had ML salaries for short periods of time this year, too. I think Jorge Cantu has a ML salary of $410,000 this year. And finally, if Guardado returns this year, he could earn more than $500,000. I hope that helps. Thank you for posting this.

Hatteberg has a club option for next season which is $175K if he gets 500 PAs, IIRC. My figures represent what the Reds payroll could be if they let everyone they don't have under contract for next year walk. That's why I have them paying Dunn only $500K.

You may be right about Gil (oh, why do you have to pick on ol' Gil?). He hasn't been on the active roster this year so I left him off. Same with Cantu. I forgot about Cruz and Lizard was called up right when I finalized this.

Guardado has more clauses in his deal than a Hollywood pre-nup. I'm putting down what I expect the Reds to spend on him. I doubt he's going to make a lot - if any - of his incentives so I kept him at $500K.

A little history behind this: Back in 02, I believe, John Allen made the statement that arbitration raises and salary increases were going to eat up the payroll budget for the next season. Therefore they couldn't afford to go after a lot of free agents. So I put together a little spreadsheet of my own to see if it was true. The Reds don't whine anymore about this so it's kind of moot but I like doing this anyway just to see what could happen if they didn't bring back anyone who was under contract for the following season.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by NJReds

How is Dunn only making $500K next year?

BIG DUMB TEXAN excise tax!

(sorry - had to throw that out there. back to your regular discussion)

[BuckeyeRedleg]

One other thing. If they have already paid Arroyo his signing bonus I think it's a little sneaky of them if they add that total to next year's payroll.