The Meaning of being 9 back on Aug 18....

[jojo]

Basically when your record is 53-68, being 9 back on Aug 18th means your division sucks.

With 40 games left in the season, being 9 back is pretty much like Evel Knievel revving up his skycycle as it faces the ramp overlooking the snake river canyon... we might buy tickets to watch but really the potential for a miracle is much more illusion than reality. There's a reason an ambulance is standing by....

I want to believe. I do. I really do (as I suspect a lot of fellow Zoners do too).

Can you convince the cynics among us that we're way too down on the Reds? If so, this thread is for you....

[Falls City Beer]

Three names: Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Dave Duncan.

That's why the Reds ain't winnin' zip.

Adam Wainwright, outside of Peavy and Webb, has been the NL's best starter over the last 2 1/2 or 3 months. He's absolutely smashed his competition. He should be plenty enough--with one more Pujols hot streak--to vault the Cards into the postseason.

And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.

[NJReds]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.

Starring Ryan Franklin, AKA Redszone whipping boy. Go figure.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by NJReds

Starring Ryan Franklin, AKA Redszone whipping boy. Go figure.

The magic that is Dave Duncan.

I don't know how he does it, but he does it.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by NJReds

Go figure.

Hint: it begins with a "D" and ends with an "ave Duncan."

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Three names: Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, and Dave Duncan.

That's why the Reds ain't winnin' zip.

Adam Wainwright, outside of Peavy and Webb, has been the NL's best starter over the last 2 1/2 or 3 months. He's absolutely smashed his competition. He should be plenty enough--with one more Pujols hot streak--to vault the Cards into the postseason.

And really, outside of San Diego's, St Louis's bullpen is outstanding.

Hey...this thread is supposed to be for convincing us to believe...

We're not off to a good start.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by jojo

Hey...this thread is supposed to be for convincing us to believe...

We're not off to a good start.

The alpha dog still guards the trophy.

The Reds could be up 10 to 1 in the ninth inning of the game that would clench the division title, and they'd blow it--they lack the killer instinct. (And a bullpen).

[Matt700wlw]

What does 9 back mean? Not much. It means the Reds aren't "out of it" and because of that, the young guys (like Votto) are going to stay put, at least until September...even then, they might if they're not going to get playing time...since the Reds may still be "in it"

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

What does 9 back mean? Not much. It means the Reds aren't "out of it" and because of that, the young guys (like Votto) are going to stay put, at least until September...even then, they might if they're not going to get playing time...since the Reds may still be "in it"

So this could be argued as a worse case scenario if we were having this conversation back in June?

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by jojo

So this could be argued as a worse case scenario if we were having this conversation back in June?

Could be, in a strange kind of way. That false sense to Krivsky that this team is closer than they really are....Pete Mackanin's the answer...he's getting the job done...

I still don't think Mackanin will be the manager in 2008...even if it's not Krivsky's call....but his boss' call. I sometimes wonder if Krivsky will survive this offseason, but a "dead cat bounce" could save his job and allow him to continue his tenure if it's even in doubt.


After 40 games (tonight is 40), I think Pete's done a good job......but maybe that just goes to show us what kind of job Narron really was doing...


What we're seeing is what we've seen the past 2 managerial changes. Miley comes in, gets fan support because he's "paid his dues" in the organization, gets the job....fails, gets fired. Narron takes over, has a good run, gets fan support, gets the job....GETS AN EXTENSION...gets fired. Mackanin comes in, having some success...getting some fan support...


The Reds have to think long and hard about if they want to do it again...

[BCubb2003]

We need one of those stats that say, "Teams that are nine games back on Aug. 18 have an X percent chance of making the playoffs."

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The Reds could be up 10 to 1 in the ninth inning of the game that would clench the division title, and they'd blow it--they lack the killer instinct. (And a bullpen).

Funny, as bad as that bullepn has been, we've won every game we've led into the 9th inning for over a year.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ah yes. A thread praising the Cardinals, who are four games under .500 in a terrible division. And despite Wainwright's decent two months, his overall numbers are still very average at best. That 1.43 WHIP doesn't impress me at all.

[IslandRed]

I don't know that I could construct a logical case for believing, but so what? If you want to believe, then suspend disbelief. I enjoy playing armchair GM as much as anyone, but we don't actually run the ballclub and there's no harm done if we have some irrational hope once in awhile.

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by BCubb2003

We need one of those stats that say, "Teams that are nine games back on Aug. 18 have an X percent chance of making the playoffs."

Here's something, if it helps. If this team is a .500 team, as in that is their "fundamental" level, the chance that they can win AT LEAST 28 of the next 39 is 0.17%.

About 1 in 600, just to get back to .500.