Adam Dunn’s 2007: Month by month

[mbgrayson]

Many in RedsZone have debated whethert the Reds should pick up Adam Dunn’s 2008 option. I thought a quick look at his 2007 stats, broken down month by month, might add some fuel to this debate(as if it needs any....).

Home runs: 35
April: 6
May: 8
June: 9
July: 4
August: 8

OBP: .373
April: .363
May: .355
June: .352
July: .376
August: .427

Walks/Strikeouts/ BB-K rate: 76/144/.53
April: 14/32/.44
May: 16/41/.39
June: 9/25/.36
July: 19/28/.68
August: 18/18/1.0

Slugging Percentage: .557
April: .511
May: .573
June: .617
July: .455
August: .638

OPS: .929
April: .874
May: .928
June: .969
July: .831
August: 1.065

Strikeout rate: 32.6%
April: 31.4%
May: 34.5%
June: 24.3%
July: 26.2%
August: 20.7%

I don’t know exactly why, but Dunn’s strikeout rate has been dropping since May. I thought I had noticed this, and the stats bear it out.

When we see that including 2007, Dunn’s career strikeout rate is 32.7%, we can see that when he cuts down on strikeouts his OBP numbers take a nice upward turn. Not the striking out a fourth of the time is good, but is better than a third of the time.

Last year, Dunn’s hitting dropped dramatically in August and September. So far, no sign of a repeat. It will be interesting to see if the reduced K rate continues through the end of the year. If this trend continues, it may signal a change in approach by Dunn. If not, it probably just signifies a ‘hot streak’.

[JaxRed]

Nice research

[dfs]

good stuff.

[lollipopcurve]

For me, Dunn's performance lately has answered 1 of 2 big questions I had about him after last year:

1. Does he get worn done and need more rest?
Answer, 2007: Not necessarily.

2. Does he struggle in a pennant race?
Answer, 2007: What's a pennant race?

I think he's improving now -- great to see. I really hope the Reds see the same thing and decide to keep him over Griffey. VERY interesting that Votto has been in RF in Louisville recently...........

[Ltlabner]

Wait a sec....I thought it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dunn went on vacation in August and September and that's why no GM want's any part of him.

[nate]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Wait a sec....I thought it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dunn went on vacation in August and September and that's why no GM want's any part of him.

Hello?

Its greed-driven production.

I'll bet his SPI's plummet this month.

[KronoRed]

I like that his OBP is taking anice upward turn

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

2. Does he struggle in a pennant race?
Answer, 2007: What's a pennant race?

Touche

What is it about Adam Dunn in June? I'm too lazy to look it up, but isn't that consistently his monster month?

Although I love the fact that he consistently plays 160 games a year, it does make me wonder if he shouldn't sit a little more often late in the season. That's not a brain surgeon statement, I guess.

[mbgrayson]

[Updated stats through September 15th, 2007]

Home runs: 39
April: 6
May: 8
June: 9
July: 4
August: 9
September: 3

OBP: .387
April: .363
May: .355
June: .352
July: .376
August: .443
September: .472

Walks/Strikeouts/ BB-K rate: 94/158/.59
April: 14/32/.44
May: 16/41/.39
June: 9/25/.36
July: 19/28/.68
August: 26/23/1.13
September: 10/9/1.11

Slugging Percentage: .564
April: .511
May: .573
June: .617
July: .455
August: .621
September: .643

OPS: .951
April: .874
May: .928
June: .969
July: .831
August: 1.065
September: 1.115

Strikeout rate: 26.5%
April: 31.4%
May: 34.5%
June: 24.3%
July: 26.2%
August: 20.35%
September: 17.3%

Dunn’s strikeout rate has continued dropping since May.

As of now, mid-September, I think it is clear that Adam Dunn has changed his hitting approach. This is more than just a power streak, which we have seen before from Adam. It now looks to be a season long trend of improvement: better average, better K rate, better OPS each month.

He has also been routinely going the other way with the ball, and consciously putting the ball in play more with runners on base.

This is a very encouraging trend.

[OnBaseMachine]

A little off-topic but...I was just looking at the boxscore from last night's game and I noticed that they said Dunn was HBP instead of giving him a walk. That is a terrible scoring. The 3-0 pitch was inside but it clearly didn't hit him. It was a good four inches from hitting him. So instead of him now having 95 walks he's still at 94. That could end up costing him a 100 walk season. It's not a huge deal but it's still a minor milestone you would like to see him reach.

Great post, mbgrayson. Adam Dunn was a great, great hitter before but these last few months he's really elevated his status to superstar level. Everytime he steps up to the plate you feel he is a lock to reach base. If this carries over into next season, you could be looking at a MVP.

[OnBaseMachine]

Adam Dunn

Pre ASB: .258 BA/.356 OBP/.549 SLG - .905 OPS

306 AB, 55 runs, 13 2B, 24 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB/105 K

Post ASB: .286 BA/.431 OBP/.587 SLG - 1.018 OPS

196 AB, 45 runs, 14 2B, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 49 BB/53 K

[pedro]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

A little off-topic but...I was just looking at the boxscore from last night's game and I noticed that they said Dunn was HBP instead of giving him a walk. That is a terrible scoring. The 3-0 pitch was inside but it clearly didn't hit him. It was a good four inches from hitting him. So instead of him now having 95 walks he's still at 94. That could end up costing him a 100 walk season. It's not a huge deal but it's still a minor milestone you would like to see him reach.

Great post, mbgrayson. Adam Dunn was a great, great hitter before but these last few months he's really elevated his status to superstar level. Everytime he steps up to the plate you feel he is a lock to reach base. If this carries over into next season, you could be looking at a MVP.

It did hit his shirt.

[Cyclone792]

If people take a look and notice, Dunn's hit rates per PAs have jumped around and show no real trend despite his strikeout rate trending down. His walk rate, however, has jumped up in the past few months, meaning what we knew all along is correct in that a reduction in strikeouts will likely lead to an increase in walks (not really an increase in hits). The increase in walks directly increases OBP, and it also cuts down on the number of AB, which in turn raises BA, SLG and OPS.

At any rate, hopefully Dunn's new surge was soon enough for the Reds to actually be able to commit to a new deal with him. Either pick up the option and extend him for three more years after 2008, or scrap the option and extend him four more years. The Reds need to make sure Dunn's locked up through 2011, as that type of deal would carry Dunn right through his peak years and have him under the Reds' control next to Harang and Arroyo.

FWIW, here's Dunn since August 1st ...

  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
  40 168 129  35  38  7  0 12  36  36   4  32   2   0   1   2   1  0  .295  .452  .628 1.080

[paintmered]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Adam Dunn

Pre ASB: .258 BA/.356 OBP/.549 SLG - .905 OPS

306 AB, 55 runs, 13 2B, 24 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB/105 K

Post ASB: .286 BA/.431 OBP/.587 SLG - 1.018 OPS

196 AB, 45 runs, 14 2B, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 49 BB/53 K

Maybe Marty is doing us all a favor by shouting to the world all of Adam's faults and keeping his perceived value low. If the league catches wind of these numbers, $13 million/year will start to look like a steal.

When will the Reds announce if his option is picked up?

[jojo]

I think we fans make way too much out of small samples so I'm a skeptic that we're watching any transformation.

However as cyclone indicated, Dunn has all but forced the Reds to pick up his option and his second half could have implications for the Reds roster for the next several years.