Looking to see who can be centerfield

[M2]

Originally Posted by flyer85

CF is a really small problem in the Reds scheme of things. Pitching and catching look to be much more pressing issues.

I don't think being 28th in MLB in DER is a small problem. The offense is middle of the pack in EQA and that's after the recent hot streak, so it's not like the Reds overflow with firepower.

I agree that pitching and catcher are glaring problem areas, but the Reds are a bad team. It's not like they've got a single problem. No one move is going to be a panacea. It's going to take numerous changes to create the kind of team that can go out and be dangerous.

So I'm fine with the notion that major resources should be reserved for other moves, but that doesn't mean that some resources can't be devoted to sorting out the OF. Plus, who knows how many OFs head out the door to get the pitching and catching the team needs. It's possible the Reds could find themselves looking to bring an OF into the mix to offset what they've dealt away.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by M2

I don't think being 28th in MLB in DER is a small problem.

Trade Bruce and Bailey for Justin Upton.

[RedsManRick]

Edabbs, your point is well taken, but how do you recommend fixing it? Do you swap out a guy who is .900 OPS vR and .700 OPS vL for a guy who's .700 OPS vR and .800 OPS vL? That results in a net loss of production.

You look at a guy like Dunn, who has a significant platoon split of nearly 100 points. On the surface you might say that that's a problem. However, his OPS vL (.834) is basically the same as Mike Cameron (.849), Torii Hunter (.828), and Andruw Jones (.859). The real issue is not that our lefties are horrible, but that we lack righties. Unless you are replacing the lefties with somebody who represents the same overall production, but with the reverse split, you're like doing more harm than good.

Dave Ross alone is responsible for over 30 points of the Reds OPS drop vL in 2007 compared to 2006. Dunn is only responsible for about half of that.

In any case, PA versus lefties only account for about 30% of your total PA. The specific platoon splits of any new Red is at bat a tertiary concern behind his overall level of production and defensive ability.

I like Bourn conceptually, but if you consider the production we're getting (or believe we will get) from our 4 corner guys (Bruce, Hamilton, Dunn, Griffey), the upgrade defensively would have to be quite significant to break even. That said, if you can turn Dunn or Junior in to equally productive pitching, and acquire Bourn without giving up a key piece in return, it's definitely worth exploring.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Edabbs, your point is well taken, but how do you recommend fixing it? Do you swap out a guy who is .900 OPS vR and .700 OPS vL for a guy who's .700 OPS vR and .800 OPS vL? That results in a net loss of production.

You look at a guy like Dunn, who has a significant platoon split of nearly 100 points. On the surface you might say that that's a problem. However, his OPS vL (.834) is basically the same as Mike Cameron (.849), Torii Hunter (.828), and Andruw Jones (.859). The real issue is not that our lefties are horrible, but that we lack righties. Unless you are replacing the lefties with somebody who represents the same overall production, but with the reverse split, you're like doing more harm than good.

Dave Ross alone is responsible for over 30 points of the Reds OPS drop vL in 2007 compared to 2006. Dunn is only responsible for about half of that.

In any case, PA versus lefties only account for about 30% of your total PA. The specific platoon splits of any new Red is at bat a tertiary concern behind his overall level of production and defensive ability.

I like Bourn conceptually, but if you consider the production we're getting (or believe we will get) from our 4 corner guys (Bruce, Hamilton, Dunn, Griffey), the upgrade defensively would have to be quite significant to break even. That said, if you can turn Dunn or Junior in to equally productive pitching, and acquire Bourn without giving up a key piece in return, it's definitely worth exploring.

Agreed that it's easier said than done.

One way, though potentially unpopular, would be to shop one of the lefties for pitching and look to acquire a righty to replace the guy traded.

What if, hypothetically, they deal Griffey for some decent young pitching and sign Hunter?

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by M2

Yeah, too many LH bats can sink a franchise. Just ask the Yankees. It's been a thorn in their side ever since they got that Babe Ruth guy from the Red Sox.

Not really the best example, since the Reds can't afford to bring in the best left-handed hitters in the game.

Kearns, Aurilia, and Ross did more than their share vs. Lefties in 2006. Two of those bats are gone, and one (Ross) was pretty much an illusion.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Kearns, Aurilia, and Ross did more than their share vs. Lefties in 2006. Two of those bats are gone, and one (Ross) was pretty much an illusion.

True enough, forgot about Kearns. Though I tend not to sweat platoon players. They're out there if you need them. Meanwhile if you don't have players who can cover the 70% of the time when you're facing RHPs, you're up a creek.

If, when the Reds get their nominal starting eight together it needs a few more RH platoon guys, then they can go out and find a few, but get the starting eight first. To put it another way, I wouldn't pass on a guy to whom I'd like to give the majority of the playing time because I'm not quite sure about how to handle the smaller chunk of the playing time.

[IslandRed]

Tossing out another name, if it hasn't been mentioned already -- Curtis Granderson.

It's a bit of a stretch, but the Tigers have Cameron Maybin, a natural center fielder, coming on fast. Probably too fast, admittedly. Maybin would have to show enough down the stretch to give the Tigers a comfort level that he can stick for good. But if they can picture him as their opening-day CF next year, that makes Granderson tasty trade bait, and the Tigers sorely need what we can afford to trade -- a lefty-hitting corner-outfield masher.

[Rojo]

Here's one: David DeJesus. He's slugging impaired and doesn't swipe bags, but can find first base, scores runs and is entereing his prime years. Plus he'd make a nice platoon partner with Hopper.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

Tossing out another name, if it hasn't been mentioned already -- Curtis Granderson.

It's a bit of a stretch, but the Tigers have Cameron Maybin, a natural center fielder, coming on fast. Probably too fast, admittedly. Maybin would have to show enough down the stretch to give the Tigers a comfort level that he can stick for good. But if they can picture him as their opening-day CF next year, that makes Granderson tasty trade bait, and the Tigers sorely need what we can afford to trade -- a lefty-hitting corner-outfield masher.

Ooh. Now THAT's idea I like. Granderson is an absolute stud and Dunn definitely fits a need for them. Dunn between Mags and Sheffield? Scary!

It's one of those deals that just makes a ton of sense, but I imagine that we'd need to give up a little more than just Dunn given Granderson's defense, youth, and salary, and contract situation. Dunn would have to sign long term too, which I don't think he'd do in Detroit.

[flyer85]

The Dunn/Jr trade talk is mostly a non-starter. Each cannot be traded without their permission and the trade value of both is limited. They are likely Reds for at least part of 2008 and then will be gone.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Here's one: David DeJesus. He's slugging impaired and doesn't swipe bags, but can find first base, scores runs and is entereing his prime years. Plus he'd make a nice platoon partner with Hopper.

He was on my radar too. He's not flashy, but he could be solid. He also does fairly well against LHPs for a LH hitter.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by M2

He's not flashy, but he could be solid

Which is why he's attainable. He's got an underrated skill set -- good D, .360ish OBA and first-to-third speed. Offensively, he's kind of the anti-Brandon Phillips.

[M2]

Originally Posted by flyer85

The Dunn/Jr trade talk is mostly a non-starter. Each cannot be traded without their permission and the trade value of both is limited. They are likely Reds for at least part of 2008 and then will be gone.

While MLB front offices are seemingly reaching new levels of diffidence when it comes to helping out their own franchises, we are talking about the guys who currently rank 11th and 13th in the NL in OPS. They're 6th and 12th in RBIs. They're 3rd and 6th in HR. At some point there's got to be a few teams who won't argue with the premise. If you need a big bat, these are two of the biggest around and chances are good no one with acquire a better masher than those guys over the winter.

Obviously the Reds would need to get the player to approve the deal, but I've never understood the assumption that neither one would notice that greener pastures might lie outside Cincinnati. I'm sure there's certain places each one wouldn't want to go, but I'm equally sure that there's places where they'd leap at the chance.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Which is why he's attainable. He's got an underrated skill set -- good D, .360ish OBA and first-to-third speed. Offensively, he's kind of the anti-Brandon Phillips.

Which makes him a nice guy to pair with Brandon Phillips in a lineup. What kills one might make the other stronger.

[RedsManRick]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Dunn's no-trade only good through June 15th? A mid-season deal is still very possible, if not downright likely.