Looking to see who can be centerfield

[pedro]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Dunn, Griffey, Bruce, Hamilton. Unless you move 2 of them, you don't move for a CF in FA. Period.

I don't agree with that. Both Dunn and Griffey are likely gone after 2008, Hamilton hasn't proven he can hit lefties or that he can stay healthy for a full season and Bruce is still 20 years old.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by pedro

Carlos Silva sucks IMO.

He sucks IMO, as well.

It wouldn't be quite a Milton-esque situation, but it wouldn't be far behind.

[lollipopcurve]

Dunn, Griffey, Bruce, Hamilton. Unless you move 2 of them, you don't move for a CF in FA. Period.

Yep. The numbers are what they are, and they're all lefthanded.

[lollipopcurve]

He sucks IMO, as well.

It wouldn't be quite a Milton-esque situation, but it wouldn't be far behind.

OK, he's a groundball pitcher, not Milton. The pickings are just so slim. So how are you going to improve the rotation?

Pedro suggests Homer plus..... plus what?

M2's got Homer plus Hamilton for Oswalt. (If a pitcher like Oswalt becomes available, I do think you have to look at sacrificing multiple A-level prospects, but I'd still try to give them Dunn first....)

Other options?

[pedro]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

OK, he's a groundball pitcher, not Milton. The pickings are just so slim. So how are you going to improve the rotation?

Pedro suggests Homer plus..... plus what?

M2's got Homer plus Hamilton for Oswalt. (If a pitcher like Oswalt becomes available, I do think you have to look at sacrificing multiple A-level prospects, but I'd still try to give them Dunn first....)

Other options?

I don't know. I really don't like to play trade speculation.

I just know that I don't have a ton of faith that Bailey's ever going to fulfill his promise.

[lollipopcurve]

I just know that I don't have a ton of faith that Bailey's ever going to fulfill his promise.

Understandable.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

OK, he's a groundball pitcher, not Milton. The pickings are just so slim. So how are you going to improve the rotation?

Pedro suggests Homer plus..... plus what?

M2's got Homer plus Hamilton for Oswalt. (If a pitcher like Oswalt becomes available, I do think you have to look at sacrificing multiple A-level prospects, but I'd still try to give them Dunn first....)

Other options?

My best suggestion is to wait and see if Cueto can actually be something, since Homer Bailey is well on his way to running with the torch he got from Chris Gruler, who got the torch from Ty Howington.

Matt Belisle can be a #5 guy for us. Let's not expect him to be anything more.

Unfortunately, the FA class that we can attempt to sign between Winter Meetings and Opening Day is very weak and there are no arms in that class that can immediately turn us into contenders for 2008. Let's not kid ourselves, we're not going to compete in 2008, so let's put together a plan for 2009, which should include continuing to develop Cueto, as well as finding out the true Homer Bailey.

By 2009, there should be a solid arm in FA that could help us compete for 2009.

As for making a trade, we do have spare parts in the OF to move, so let's move them. If this organization is short-sighted and doesn't see Adam Dunn in the long term plan, then let's trade him for some pitching. If this organization doesn't believe in Joey Votto, then let's move him for some pitching.

I wish the Reds would focus on Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce as our OF for 2009, and do what we can to get good value trading anyone that's not those 3. Dickerson and Stubbs hopefully could become useful backups by 2009, but that still might be a stretch.

Bottomline, we have real issues to address with the rotation, but trying to solve our problems with 1 or 2 arms via FA for 2008 just isn't a feasible answer.

[RedsManRick]

Hopper? Freel?

Do you really want to spend 15M on Torii Hunter or 10M on Mike Cameron just to push Hamilton definitively to the bench?

Are the cheaper options any better bets than what we've got? Gabe Gross has a .443 OPS vL.

I don't see a single reasonable option out there who is a better all around option than Josh Hamtilon, even with all due sample size, injury, and platoon concerns considered. The only one that makes some sense is Coco Crisp, and that would require trading away a guy who we control for 6 years to get a guy who will be a FA in 2009 and leave us with a hole at 1B.

Now if you could do Votto for Ellsbury, now you're on to something that at least makes some sense.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Hopper? Freel?

Do you really want to spend 15M on Torii Hunter or 10M on Mike Cameron just to push Hamilton definitively to the bench?

Not that I'm in favor if it but Josh can go down to the minors next year.

[lollipopcurve]

Do you really want to spend 15M on Torii Hunter or 10M on Mike Cameron just to push Hamilton definitively to the bench?

No -- to LF.

Now if you could do Votto for Ellsbury, now you're on to something that at least makes some sense.

Would never happen. He's in Boston to stay for a while. And, in any case, these prospect for rospect trades never happen -- organizations have too much invested in these kids to say "I like your kid better.:

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

No -- to LF.



Would never happen. He's in Boston to stay for a while. And, in any case, these prospect for rospect trades never happen -- organizations have too much invested in these kids to say "I like your kid better.:

And you move Dunn where?

I'm not at all sold that a Hamilton/Cameron(or Hunter, or Rowand)/Griffey OF is any better as a package than Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey. I do know that it carries a lot more risk given those guys age and/or spotty offensive backgrounds.

I'm not a big fan of simply spinning my wheels for the sake of saying I'm trying to go somewhere. It's pretty darn hard to improve your team by subtracting one of it's best players. I can see all kinds of arguments on how we might break even. But unless a great trade of Dunn or Junior happens, simply subtracting them and redistributing their salary on FA signings won't make us better -- particularly if that money is spent on a defense dependent SP who gave up 38 HR in 2006.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Chip R

Not that I'm in favor if it but Josh can go down to the minors next year.

And you send down the 26 year old hitting .288/.367/.547 who costs nothing so that you can pay a 33 year old 12M+ to hit .270/.340./460 and save you an extra 5-10 runs in the field? Ok....

A Hamilton/Hopper platoon is a lot cheaper and more productive than any FA. The added defense is not worth the loss of Dunn or the demotion of Hamilton.

I fully support a trade of Dunn or Junior given a good return as a way to open up CF for a better option. However, if you have Hamilton in LF, you don't need Ichiro in CF. If you lose one of Dunn or Junior, you play Hamilton & Bruce in RF & CF and play the veteran in LF. The current problem is the combination of a mediocre CF with two significantly subpar corners. You don't need a superior defensive CF and the loss of our corner guys to address the problem -- particularly not at the cost of offensive prowess and financial flexibility.

Given the FA market and our current distribution of talent, it really does come down to player development. Our biggest holes are the production of our corner IF. Those positions easily have the most room for growth and we supposedly have the talent to do it -- it just needs to grow.

As for the pitching, look at all the playoff teams. How many of them are winning based on the strength of FA pitching? It's trades (using developed talent) and developed talent - Beckett, Peavy, Penny, Webb, Sheets, Sabathia, etc.. Of the guys who were FA signings, most of them were ones we can't hope to replicate (Schilling, Pettite, Glavine). There are just a small handful of FA signings which we could hope to mimic -- Paul Bryd -- and even then, a larger number of mistakes which we couldn't survive.

Bottom line, on an $80M budget, you can't win with a team that gets a lot of production from FA signings. FA production is simply too expensive. You have to develop your production to win and there's no getting around it. If Bailey/Cueto don't develop, if Bruce & Votto are busts, this team won't win. Yeah, it's sort of fatalistic, but it's true. There's no offseason silver bullet which will change that.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

And you send down the 26 year old hitting .288/.367/.547 who costs nothing so that you can pay a 33 year old 12M+ to hit .270/.340./460? Ok....

A Hamilton/Hopper platoon is a lot cheaper and more productive than any FA. The added defense is not worth the loss of Dunn or the demotion of Hamilton.

I didn't say I was in favor of it. All I'm saying is that the Reds have an option with Josh - no pun intended.

[lollipopcurve]

And you move Dunn where?

To free agency. Because he's headed that way in 09 anyway -- don't you think? I'll take the savings now.

I'm not at all sold that a Hamilton/Cameron(or Hunter, or Rowand)/Griffey OF is any better as a package than Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey. I do know that it carries a lot more risk given those guys age and/or spotty offensive backgrounds.

My OF is Hamilton -- Rowand/Cameron/Hunter -- Bruce. FAR better defensively than what's out there now. A lot cheaper, allowing for talent upgrade elsewhere. Less susceptible to catastrophic injury (that's Griffey). Probably a downgrade offensively, but not for long, and probably not against LH pitching.

I'm not a big fan of simply spinning my wheels for the sake of saying I'm trying to go somewhere. It's pretty darn hard to improve your team by subtracting one of it's best players. I can see all kinds of arguments on how we might break even. But unless a great trade of Dunn or Junior happens, simply subtracting them and redistributing their salary on FA signings won't make us better -- particularly if that money is spent on a defense dependent SP who gave up 38 HR in 2006.

So, come 2009 when both those guys are gone, what then? In my view, might as well be a player in the trade/FA markets now (especially with all these good CFs becoming FAs this winter). By this time next year, your options are limited to the 09 FA market.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

To free agency. Because he's headed that way in 09 anyway -- don't you think? I'll take the savings now.

Yes, I do think he's headed that way. I don't think that allow him to walk is the best way to get him there.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

My OF is Hamilton -- Rowand/Cameron/Hunter -- Bruce. FAR better defensively than what's out there now. A lot cheaper, allowing for talent upgrade elsewhere. Less susceptible to catastrophic injury (that's Griffey). Probably a downgrade offensively, but not for long, and probably not against LH pitching.

Cheaper? Yes, but that only counts if you use the savings to improve the team elsewhere, which I don't believe you can in this market.

Less susceptible to catastrophic injury? Griffey is a FA in 2009 as well. I'd actually take the odds of Junior not getting injured for 1 year over the odds of one of those 3 not getting seriously injured over the next 5 -- or at least the financial implications thereof.

Offensive downgrade? Umm, what does not for long mean? With Dunn and Griffey both FA after next year, the only difference we have to analyze is next year. Bruce will be here in 2009 either way. It's an offensive downgrade in 2008. Are any of those 3 you mentioned likely to improve offensively over their 2007 performances? Not at all, in fact, both Rowand and Hunter are very likely to regress. Also, right-handed pitching accounts for 70% of the plate appearances. I'd rather be weak against lefties than against righties.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

So, come 2009 when both those guys are gone, what then? In my view, might as well be a player in the trade/FA markets now (especially with all these good CFs becoming FAs this winter). By this time next year, your options are limited to the 09 FA market.

A fair point, but only if you can get value for Dunn. Expecting a continuance of the sort of offensive production we've seen from Rowand and Hunter this year is folly and I question the quality of defense you'll be getting from Hunter and Cameron as they move in to their mid 30's.

Personally, I'd prefer a Dunn/Bruce/Hamilton OF for the next 4 years over a Hamilton/Hunter/Bruce one.

All this said, I think the real problem is hypothesizing that we'll be able to sign any top FA talent. Top FA talents don't sign to play in Cincinnati unless we overpay the significantly and that's not a business model I would want to use.