Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[M2]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Doug: I know it's been hashed out many times on the board, but after looking at the list above, would you think Stubbs has been the biggest disappointment on the field so far of the first 22 picks?

Though you asked Doug, I'll take a crack at it: No.

Reynolds' shoulder surgery is a huge blow. Sinkbeil looks like a non-prospect. Parmelee's a DH in the field who doesn't hit well.

Yet the worst of the crop looks to be Drabek. His stuff wasn't very good from the moment he got drafted (no juice = no stuff?) and now he's injured. He might have to shift to 2B sooner rather than later. Plus, he came into last year's draft with an enormous Milo slapped on his head.

I'd say Stubbs has only been the fifth most disappointing debut. Hochevar's been pretty bad too (despite the major league toe dip). Lincoln's surgery and Jeffress' suspension (chronic?) are definitive setbacks. I also still like Stubbs better than Colvin, who played better at higher levels, but is devoid of OB skills.

[dougdirt]

edabbs, no I don't think Stubbs has been the biggest disappointment. He surely hasn't been the best player, but he surely hasnt been the worst.

M2, I wonder how long Drabeks arm was bothering him.... when I was watching his draft video I didn't like his mechanics, as he was getting his throwing elbow up over his shoulder before coming forward.... something I don't like at all with pitchers. Like you said though, he could have been drafted fairly high as a hitter, so a switch to batter would not be an out of the blue thing if the pitching thing doesn't work out for him.

Maybe its just rumors, but I heard that Jeffress was found with some illegal drug of choice in ST and was told to not do it again, then he tested positive for it later, so its something you might want to keep a real close eye on.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

edabbs, no I don't think Stubbs has been the biggest disappointment. He surely hasn't been the best player, but he surely hasnt been the worst.

M2, I wonder how long Drabeks arm was bothering him.... when I was watching his draft video I didn't like his mechanics, as he was getting his throwing elbow up over his shoulder before coming forward.... something I don't like at all with pitchers. Like you said though, he could have been drafted fairly high as a hitter, so a switch to batter would not be an out of the blue thing if the pitching thing doesn't work out for him.

Maybe its just rumors, but I heard that Jeffress was found with some illegal drug of choice in ST and was told to not do it again, then he tested positive for it later, so its something you might want to keep a real close eye on.

I didn't like Drabek's mechanics either. Combine that with his size, the PED allegations and his general loutish behavior and he stuck out as the Most Likely to Fail from last year's first round. He hasn't disappointed one bit.

If Jeffress is just a stoner, I wouldn't be overly worried. I knew a lot of stoners at that age, some of whom who are now aerospace engineers, and I'm guessing still stoners. If it's something more sinister then you definitely have to wonder if he's heading the way of Jeff Allison.

As for Stubbs, he's caught, like everybody else in the top nine, in the shadow of Tim Lincecum. Yet Scherzer, Snider and Antonelli aren't doing him any favors either. Not only was there the pocket superman (Lincecum), but there was a traditional collegiate power arm (Scherzer), a more offensively complete HS OF (Snider) and a better college player (Antonelli) on the board. Obviously their relative rankings could change in the coming years, but I've found that it's a lot easier to win a race when you've got a head start.

Stubbs could still materialize into a player, though if the Reds were doing a self-assessment I'd think they'd have to conclude that given a chance to do it all over again, Drew Stubbs would not be their pick.

[dougdirt]

Well from what I have heard, and from several good sources, Jeffress is indeed dealing with something much less sinister than that of a Jeff Allison. Everyone is caught in the TL shadow for now, as well, he has been flat out dominant at times.... in the major leagues. I have a feeling the Reds would not make the same pick as they did, but I still feel Stubbs would go in the top 15 because of everything he brings to the table.

[kcjones]

Originally Posted by paulrichjr

He lives in my hometown...Helped my son this year in baseball. Seems to be a good guy but not good enough of a baseball player.

This is a typical remark from someone in his hometown. I have never heard any good remarks from hometowners about an athlete's potential ability. They always want to put them down like they don't deserve to be where they are, that they're not that good. How do you know? Are you a professional? Most locals don't know talent when they see it.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I have a feeling the Reds would not make the same pick as they did, but I still feel Stubbs would go in the top 15 because of everything he brings to the table.

15 might be a stretch...don't forget there are a few big names who went after the 1st round (Brett Anderson, Lars Anderson, Joba).

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

15 might be a stretch...don't forget there are a few big names who went after the 1st round (Brett Anderson, Lars Anderson, Joba).

I didn't forget. Scouts like Stubbs a lot, and I think people took notice of his second half.

[paulrichjr]

Originally Posted by kcjones

This is a typical remark from someone in his hometown. I have never heard any good remarks from hometowners about an athlete's potential ability. They always want to put them down like they don't deserve to be where they are, that they're not that good. How do you know? Are you a professional? Most locals don't know talent when they see it.

Actually in my quote I was talking about Stubby Clapp not Stubbs. The reason I know that he wasn't quiet good enough is because he played something like 20 games in his entire big league career and is now coaching. That pretty much sums it up. By the way it has been my experience with the professionals in my area that most people think they are much better than they actually are. I hear people say stuff like best fastball I have ever seen. Hits the ball a mile....etc... When true competition comes the bloom is usually off of the flower fairly quickly. By the way Weathers lives less than an hour from me...He appears to have a great future as a "lights out" closer for the team in Cincinnati.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I didn't forget. Scouts like Stubbs a lot, and I think people took notice of his second half.

Maybe, but I'm not sure how someone could be overly excited about his second half in the grand scheme. It's still Low A ball, anyway you look at it and he'll be 23 in a few weeks.

[dougdirt]

Becuase it showed that his potential may be moving from potential to talent.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Becuase it showed that his potential may be moving from potential to talent.

I was curious to see where Votto was at this age. He turned 23 at the end of the 2005 season, so he played at AA while he was 23, but he was also in his 5th year as a pro. Stubbs just completed his 2nd year. Obviously coming out of college, he's a little older, but I'm not overly concerned. I'd like to see him make significant progress next year though.

[camisadelgolf]

What all the Stubbs defenders seem to have forgotten is what the Reds said in the press conference when Drew Stubbs was drafted:

"Drew Stubbs will be a contact hitter, and he will require almost no time in the Minor Leagues. Please have no patience with his development because not only do we expect him to be in AAA for nearly all of 2007, we think he will be an NL MVP in 2008. This is due to his college program, draft slot, and the ensuing performances of those drafted around him. The last thing we want is for him to get comfortable with making adjustments at the Minor League level as opposed to the Major League level because if he slumps at higher levels, we can put the 'bust' tag on him more quickly, thus making it more resourceful to release him sooner than later. Not only that, but if he is discovered not to be a bust, it is imperative that we accelerate his arbitration clock. This whole procedure allows us to focus our attention on younger, less talented individuals with better Minor League numbers (which always translates to Major League success) and spend less time on attempting to mold one of the most physically-gifted people in baseball into a solid Major League Baseball player."

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

What all the Stubbs defenders seem to have forgotten is what the Reds said in the press conference when Drew Stubbs was drafted:

He probably won't need much time in the minors. Outside one bizzare(injury plagued?) month, Stubbs easily handled low A.

I think Drew either booms or busts next year. The rest will be history.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

He probably won't need much time in the minors. Outside one bizzare(injury plagued?) month, Stubbs easily handled low A.

I think Drew either booms or busts next year. The rest will be history.

I'm curious as to how some of the more statistically savvy would evaluate the fact that his BABIPs were so high in those months where he was easily handling Low A.

Three months they were over .380, with July coming in at a ridiculous .439.

Are BABIPs usually much higher in the minors than the majors?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I'm curious as to how some of the more statistically savvy would evaluate the fact that his BABIPs were so high in those months where he was easily handling Low A.

Three months they were over .380, with July coming in at a ridiculous .439.

Are BABIPs usually much higher in the minors than the majors?

BABIPs are higher in general in the minors due to some bad pitching and some bad fielding.