ORG: "My moves for 2008" - by Wheelhouse; For discussion on the Sun Deck

[ChatterRed]

1) Hire the top manager available. Any saavy baseball man can see the Reds have great talent and are on the uptick--so a top name can be attracted to Cincy. GIVE THE NEW MANAGER FREE REIGN TO HIRE HIS COACHES. No keeping Hume or whatever insider nonsense has happened recently. If you are getting a top manager, let him freely shape his own staff.

2) Here's the real biggie. The financial position the Reds are in dictates one thing: they need to free up cash to get a #3 starter, two quality relievers, and a catcher. These were the brutal weaknesses of the club. How is it done? Those players are out there on the free agent market this year. Let's assume for arguments sake they can get one of the relievers through trade. The cost to buy the rest? It ain't pretty:
The #3 starter will cost $12 mil a year.
The other reliever $6 million
The catcher $12 million.
I may be overestimating the cost, but am I?
Teams are not trading pitching on that scale, and the best catchers in the game are the ones that could be free agents this year. These players must, and can, be BOUGHT this year.
So-------
the Reds need to clear around $30 million to make these moves. Unavoidable conclusion: Dunn and Griffey must go. I believe Seattle would take a Griffey who is in the last year of his contract and nearing 600 home Runs. And I think Jr. would agree to it. I don't like losing Dunn as he cut his errors in half, brought his average up 30 points and shaved 30 Ks off his total this year. But in order to serve the very weakest elements of the club, he must go. As must Gonzalez and Hatteberg. Now I'm sure a great wail will rise from the center of Redszone, "Then how do you replace that production?" Here's the explanation:
Griffey can not only be replaced, but eclipsed by Hamilton in production and defense. If Jay Bruce (Baseball America AND Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year) starts for the Reds and lives up to HALF the hype, CF will have juiced up production next year. After that, I'm willing to risk that Hopper, Freel, and/or Cantu can give the adequate boost to the team to make the outfield production comparable to this year. Not to mention the addition of an OF the VERY tradeable Hatteberg or Gonzalez could bring. Keppinger must replace Gonzalez, to free money. Votto must replace Hatteberg to free money. How much does that free up?
With these moves, and Saarloos and Milton off the payroll the Reds free up over $35MM. Then consider a $2 million dollar cost of releasing Stanton and you've got $33 million. See Brandon Phillips getting around $2.5-$3 million in arbitration and there you have it.
Around $30 million to fill the Reds desperate needs in a decent free agent season. As much as we hate to see Griff and Dunn go, imagine a lineup with Jorge Posada or Ivan Rodriguez in it, while giving Bruce and Hamilton more playing time? Then imagine a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and Carlos Silva? Add Shawn Chacon to the Reds' bullpen? Then the Reds would really have a team of BALANCED quality. - Wheelhouse off ORG

I say no to trading Dunn. Trade Griffey (if possible) to save $10+ million and you've already saved $10 million on Milton. That's $20+ million. Trade Freel, release Castro and other dead weight and you probably save another $5-$8 million. They can probably save $25-$30 million by doing those things alone. If Stanton retires, there's more money saved.

Bring up Bruce to replace Griffey. Use Hopper occasionally to spell all the outfielders. Maybe even use Bruce as a leadoff hitter so he gets some good pitches.

Then use the $30 million as Wheelhouse says to add starting and relief pitching, plus a catcher. I'd like to see the Reds get Clemente from Seattle if they can trade Griffey to them. That would be quality cheap catching. That frees up even more money for free agent pitching if you can get a cheap quality catcher in a trade.

I can see all this being done, seriously, without trading Dunn.

[ChatterRed]

Just checked Pudge's stats and he's obviously on the decline, although he hit .280 with 11 HR's in about 130 games this past season. His HR's would probably increase playing in GABP, and you could platoon him with Ross since we're stuck with his contract. Keep Javier as a PH an other catcher, just in case of injury. Not sure how much Pudge would command on the open market. He turns 36 on November 30th. He's played 16 years at catcher......it has to be taking a toll on him. But then again, if you can platoon him and play him every 4 to 5 games out of 7, maybe play him 3 games, take a break, another 3 games, take a break, another 3 games take a break.....he'll end up with 120 at bats, still be fairly fresh and put up good numbers. Ross and Valentin should be able to pick up the slack for 40 games.

So how much does Pudge get on the free agent market?

[steig]

I agree with Wheelhouse's comments, except for going after Pudge. He is in decline and very injury prone at this point in his career. I'm not certain what other catchers are available but I would consider replacing Ross if the Reds are able to obtain a good replacement.

[will5979]

All of his ideas are great, but I would not trade Dunn if it were up to me. I like the idea of someone replacing Barry Larkin as a lifelong Red...since Larkin has retired I would like to see Dunn hit 500-600 career hrs in a Reds uniform, would also like to see what he could do in a Cincy postseason if they can make it back.

[mound_patrol]

I think we'll see and hope to see a very limited Free Agent shopping spree. This market is very weak from what I remember, and the catching area isn't any better.

The Reds are going to have to keep building from within and looking for low risk high reward deals.

I'd definitly be looking to shop Griffey and Freel. There'd be a huge list of other guys I'd like to deal but they would have no real trade value. Jr probably only has value if we pay a decent portion of the salary, and even then I don't see him accepting a trade in which he'd have to DH.

I also think we need to attempt to sign Dunn for about 3-4 years.

[BLEEDS]

The BIGGEST problem with this is, you cannot find a DECENT Starting Pitcher on the 2007/2008 FA list for $12M. Can you imagine paying $12M per year for Kyle Lohse? He's going to be the "prize" of the 2008 FA class...

I MIGHT consider Freddy Garcia at $7-8M +incentives. The guy has just a tad over 4.0 career ERA - 4.07 - and a Career 1.3 WHIP, this all while playing in the AL for 10 years. Coming off shoulder surgery so should be a relative bargain.

Otherwise, there's no need to look to FA for SP until 2009 - when you also can comfortably assume you won't have Jr on the Payroll - saving $12.5M of the $16.5M due him ($4M buyout). THAT Crop of SP is worth going after.

A $12M Catcher? PREPOSTEROUS!! Ross is one year removed from 21 HR's in 90 games. He and Valentin - who is a MUST resign for "Ross Insurance" - provide enough pop and defense (albeit not at the same time) for $4M. $12M would be a COLOSSAL waste of money.

Go YOUNG - spend your money on Dunn's option/LTC, replace Hatte with Votto (save $1.5M), Hope Castro takes an injury settlement($1M), hope Stanton retires ($3M), etc...
Gonzalez is a relative bargain for his production at the plate and in the field. Keep/Hopper are your utility guys/day-off guys/4th IF/OF.

The rest of your lineup looks like this:

EE - close to min
Gonzo - $4.65M
BP - probably $4M
Cantu - close to min
Ross/Valentin - $4M
Hamilton - close to min
Keppinger - close to min
Hopper - close to min
Freel - $3M

Bullpen: everybody not named Weathers ($3-$3.5M) and Coffey ($.925M) - close to min, take your pic of: Burton, Cout, Gosling, Bray, MacBeth, Majewski (may be arb. eligible) - and consider signing EasyEddieG to a minor league deal with incentives if he recovers.

Starters: Harang $6.75M, Arroyo, $3.95M, Bailey - League Min, Belisle - League Min


Counting "League Min" as $450K - and even counting Stanton & Freel Contracts - and counting Griffey as $10M ($6.5M + deferred), I come up with $61.725M, and we're short a 5th StarterSP. Give me Freddy Garcia at $8M and you're just under $70M. That team can compete - and win - the NL Central.

2009 - raises for Harang and Arroyo, MORE than offset by replacing Jr with Bruce, and you can field pretty much the same team - should be able to get rid of Stanton, Weathers will be gone, Freel due $4M, etc... - should allow us to go after RP/SP in the 2009 FA market.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[podgejeff_]

By 2009 Cueto should be ready. We'll also know if Shearn can pan out given his limited success. There's bound to be somebody else wanting a shot at starting too, such as Maloney (or maybe Thompson?). I really only think we need a SP for 2008 on a one year, maybe two year contract at best. Hence let's go out and get us Schilling or Glavine (if they'd come here).

[Degenerate39]

Here are my moves for 2008.

1. Sign Dunn to a 4 year deal
2. Try to find an established manager if I couldn't find one for a decent price then I see what Mack can do with a full year.
3. Try to trade Griffey for a Catcher Prospect or some pitching prospects.
4. If I do find a good place to trade Junior then I bring up Jay Bruce to play Center Field while Josh Hamilton plays Right Field. If I can't trade Junior then Bruce stays in Triple-A until I do find someone to take Junior.
5. None of the Free Agent Starting Pitchers are worth paying top dollar for so I bring up Johnny Cueto for the 2008 season.
6. Bring back Javy with a cheap deal.
7. Try to get Everyday Eddie back with a one year deal with incentives and a mutal option for 2009.
8. Get rid of Buck Coats and company.
9. Try to find a place for Stanton and pay some of his contract if someone wants him.

My Roster would look like this

Catcher- Ross and Javy
1st Base- Votto and Cantu
2nd Base- Phillips, Keppinger, P. Lopez
Shortstop- Gonzo, Keppinger, P. Lopez
3rd Base- Edwin, Keppinger, P. Lopez
Left Field- Dunn, Hopper, Freel
Center Field- Bruce, Hopper, Freel
Right Field- Hamilton, Hopper Freel

Bench-
Cantu, Keppinger, Lopez, Hopper, Freel, Javy

Rotation-
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto
Belisle

Bullpen-
Burton (Closer)
Weathers (Setup)
Bray (Setup)
Coutlangus
McBeth
Salmon

[BLEEDS]

Originally Posted by podgejeff_

By 2009 Cueto should be ready. We'll also know if Shearn can pan out given his limited success. There's bound to be somebody else wanting a shot at starting too, such as Maloney (or maybe Thompson?). I really only think we need a SP for 2008 on a one year, maybe two year contract at best. Hence let's go out and get us Schilling or Glavine (if they'd come here).

That's fine, but all that is filling is your #4/#5 guy with Cueto.

I don't see us going after those guys you mentioned for 2008 - then our payroll is up to $75-80M - without a solide #4/#5 guy.
I think you stay away from having to pass the baton on your 4th/5th starters as we have this year. But MAYBE.
I don't think those type of guys want to have their twilight careers spent in Cincinnati.
You want a guy who's used to mediocrity.

My guess is I think we add a midling FA SP, and hope we can OUT-BOP them with Dunn on his option. IF we sign him to a friendly LT, then we can afford to go after a Top-Line FA on an LTC in 2009 to complement Bailey/Cueto:

Harang
Arroyo
FA SP
Bailey
Cueto

Now THAT is a team that can compete.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

Originally Posted by degenerate10

My Roster would look like this

Catcher- Ross and Javy
1st Base- Votto and Cantu
2nd Base- Phillips, Keppinger, P. Lopez
Shortstop- Gonzo, Keppinger, P. Lopez
3rd Base- Edwin, Keppinger, P. Lopez
Left Field- Dunn, Hopper, Freel
Center Field- Bruce, Hopper, Freel
Right Field- Hamilton, Hopper Freel

Bench-
Cantu, Keppinger, Lopez, Hopper, Freel, Javy

Rotation-
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto
Belisle

Bullpen-
Burton (Closer)
Weathers (Setup)
Bray (Setup)
Coutlangus
McBeth
Salmon

That was my exact roster - save Cueto (TBD), Salmon (had Maj), McBeth (had Coffey in there) and Lopez (had Stanton in there). But the numbers come out fairly the same.

Yours: about $58.725M
Mine: about $61.725M

You just saved the Reds about $11M from last years' payroll. Congrats!! Mght as well spend that on a 1-2YR deal for a SP and REALLY compete.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[GoReds33]

Originally Posted by BLEEDS

That was my exact roster - save Cueto (TBD), Salmon (had Maj), McBeth (had Coffey in there) and Lopez (had Stanton in there). But the numbers come out fairly the same.

Yours: about $58.725M
Mine: about $61.725M

You just saved the Reds about $11M from last years' payroll. Congrats!! Mght as well spend that on a 1-2YR deal for a SP and REALLY compete.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Not only do the Reds need to dump salary, they need to take on more salary. If they get rid of Griffey, and save 12 million, that's fine. Then you have to spend that 12 million, plus some. You won't get much for 12 million a year, but if you are going to spend 16 you can get yourself a franchise player. My guess would be in a trade. Maybe we could get Santana. I have no clue what they would want for him though.

[BucksandReds]

Originally Posted by GoReds33

Not only do the Reds need to dump salary, they need to take on more salary. If they get rid of Griffey, and save 12 million, that's fine. Then you have to spend that 12 million, plus some. You won't get much for 12 million a year, but if you are going to spend 16 you can get yourself a franchise player. My guess would be in a trade. Maybe we could get Santana. I have no clue what they would want for him though.

Santana who? Carlos Santana? If you're talking about Johan then you're kidding yourself. If you think that were really going to get a 'franchise' player via FA or trade this year hen you're kidding yourself just as much.

[GoReds33]

Originally Posted by BucksandReds

Santana who? Carlos Santana? If you're talking about Johan then you're kidding yourself. If you think that were really going to get a 'franchise' player via FA or trade this year hen you're kidding yourself just as much.

I know. I just think that's a better route than trying to sign somebody. To get even close to a franchise player in free agency would take 20 mil a year. That's rediculious money. I would love to see Johan Santana as a Red. I know he wouldn't come here via free agency, so we should atleast try to trade for him. his deal runs out in the next couple of years. The Twins defenitly won't be able to keep him. What's wrong with being optimistic.

[BLEEDS]

Originally Posted by GoReds33

What's wrong with being optimistic.

Well, we're all Reds fans, we know better than to do that to ourselves.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Jay Bruce]

Originally Posted by GoReds33

I know. I just think that's a better route than trying to sign somebody. To get even close to a franchise player in free agency would take 20 mil a year. That's rediculious money. I would love to see Johan Santana as a Red. I know he wouldn't come here via free agency, so we should atleast try to trade for him. his deal runs out in the next couple of years. The Twins defenitly won't be able to keep him. What's wrong with being optimistic.

He's a free agent at the end of the year, and would command more than 20 million a year in an extension. So, in addition to giving up a lot of young talent, we would have to partake in giving Santana a massive contract anyways to keep him. This is not the type of move the Reds can make, even though I would love to have Santana on the team.