Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

[remdog]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Guys like Maloney don't see much success at the major league level without outstanding stuff. You can only fool people so much while working in the 85-88 MPH range.

Not trying to dump on you here DD but it's just a bit ironic to read that statement while watching Paul Byrd slog through the Red Sox with average velocity around 80 mph.

Of course, Byrd has had years to pefect his act which Maloney hasn't had yet. I used to follow the minors closely but don't have the time anymore. I have wondered about Maloney's high rateing as well since I really don't think that Lohse was worth much. If Maloney really is a bright prospect I'd have to put that trade into the 'plus' side of the ledger for Krivsky. Personally, that would be great with me and maybe the Reds can use someone that can come in and throw four solid pitches over the plate consistantly. (famous shrug)

Rem

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by gedred69

In the below A category, How do you rank Lotzcar and Frazier above Waring!? Waring has given every appearance of an absolute monster. He wins Billings triple crown, Pioneer league HR, 3rd in RBI's, 15th in BA. What about Bartles as well? Early on in the GCL--- which he dominated, and then did extremely well when moved up to Billings.

In the minor leagues, numbers are not always the name of the game. Lotzkar and Frazier, and for that matter Soto and Mesoraco are all likely better prospects than Waring. Bartles looks very solid and for how he has performed so far looks to be an absolute steal for the lower half of the draft.

[gedred69]

Originally Posted by mth123

Frazier was the best combination of pedigree and performance in the Reds draft. Mesoraco had the Pedigree but didn't perform. Waring performed, but has a lesser pedigree (7th round pick I believe). The short season leagues are filled with guys who are dominant at that level and go on to be nothing special.

Lotzkar (I misspelled it) is a 6-4, 200 LB, 17 year old who did pretty well and throws upper 90s. He had 1st round (sandwich pick) pedigree as well.

Okay, so much for the stat sheet. Have you seen these guys play? I was hoping someone had seen then actually "in the arena", and could make some observations 1st hand. And, what does pedigree mean? Aren't those guys, frequently big disappointments?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by gedred69

Okay, so much for the stat sheet. Have you seen these guys play? I was hoping someone had seen then actually "in the arena", and could make some observations 1st hand. And, what does pedigree mean? Aren't those guys, frequently big disappointments?

Everyone on the whole is a big disappointment if you just look at how few draftees make it to the big leagues. As of right now, I doubt there are more than 3 people on the board who have seen anyone drafted this year play in person, becuase they have all played (outside of Frazier and Waring who played a combined 10 games in Dayton or so) in either Montana or in the GCL Rookie League where no one is ever in attendence, and I do mean no one. At this point all you have to go by are stats and scouts opinions.... and especially at this point, scouts opinions count a lot more than stats do. At least in my mind.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by gedred69

Okay, so much for the stat sheet. Have you seen these guys play? I was hoping someone had seen then actually "in the arena", and could make some observations 1st hand. And, what does pedigree mean? Aren't those guys, frequently big disappointments?

I haven't seen them play and admit I'm no expert at all. I just wanted to get some discusion started about Red's prospects and see what everyone else had to say. Doug had it right, not many of the board members have seen these guys.

As for prospects below A Ball, stats can be tricky. A three year college player like Waring should be expected to accumulate impressive stats in a league mostly designed for 18 and 19 year olds. The disparity of preparation levels is largest at the lowest levels. It becomes more reasonable to be more stat focused as the levels increase. Its the main reason I separated Below A from other prospects. I do look at the stats, but those are more to identify who isn't performing than who is. BTW, I gave Waring plenty of credit for his big year. As a 7th Round Pick out of a draft where the Reds had all their regular picks and several extra picks ahead of him (Including a couple sandwich picks at the end of round 1), his season jumped him to third on my list ahead of a number of players that scouts (guys who have seen them play and are paid to rate these guys) rated ahead of him only 4 months ago.

[Will M]

Originally Posted by mth123

I haven't seen them play and admit I'm no expert at all. I just wanted to get some discusion started about Red's prospects and see what everyone else had to say. Doug had it right, not many of the board members have seen these guys.

As for prospects below A Ball, stats can be tricky. A three year college player like Waring should be expected to accumulate impressive stats in a league mostly designed for 18 and 19 year olds. The disparity of preparation levels is largest at the lowest levels. It becomes more reasonable to be more stat focused as the levels increase. Its the main reason I separated Below A from other prospects. I do look at the stats, but those are more to identify who isn't performing than who is. BTW, I gave Waring plenty of credit for his big year. As a 7th Round Pick out of a draft where the Reds had all their regular picks and several extra picks ahead of him (Including a couple sandwich picks at the end of round 1), his season jumped him to third on my list ahead of a number of players that scouts (guys who have seen them play and are paid to rate these guys) rated ahead of him only 4 months ago.

I only get excited about prospects ( especially pitchers ) when they do well at AA. A lot can happen between rookie ball or low A and the major leagues.

[RedsManRick]

From a Baseball Prospectus chat today:

ericmilburn (San Francisco ): Bryan, So if Longoria is the #2 prospect in baseball, does that make Jay Bruce the #1?

Bryan Smith: Yes, Bruce should be the uncontested #1 on all lists, in my mind.

[dougdirt]

I tried to talk some sense into Bryan Smith at the end of last season with Bruce.... he was unsure about him at that time.