Farm System

[flyer85]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ngs-2005-2007/

From THT

Meanwhile, just what in the world has happened to the farm system of the Cincinnati Reds? One has to look back all the way to the Kansas City Athletics of the late 1950s/early 1960s to find a non-expansion franchise with a talent well as dry as that of the 2007 Reds. Just two players (outfielders Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns, with 21 Win Shares apiece) accounted for more than half of Cincinnati's extremely meager organizational production this season.

Hopefully that is about to change.

[dougdirt]

Well, given that the Reds have likely the 2nd or 3rd best system in baseball right now, I would say that we are definately heading in the right direction. Bowden left the well nearly dry after that 1998 draft (not entirely his fault as injuries ravaged a whole slew of good prospects).

[UKFlounder]

Are farm systems judged looking backwards at who they produced in the last few years or looking forwards at who they might produce in upcoming years?

That answer might changes a perspective on how a person looks at the Reds system (and I'm not sure either way is right or wrong, just different)

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by UKFlounder

Are farm systems judged looking backwards at who they produced in the last few years or looking forwards at who they might produce in upcoming years?

over at THT the article is backward looking.

The Reds seem to have a number of very good prospects, how well they will produce remains to be seen.

I don't care much for ranking the farm systems based on future projectability.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, given that the Reds have likely the 2nd or 3rd best system in baseball right now, I would say that we are definately heading in the right direction. Bowden left the well nearly dry after that 1998 draft (not entirely his fault as injuries ravaged a whole slew of good prospects).

Things certainly look better now than they have in a while, though five and six years ago people thought the Reds system was looking strong (#2 overall in 2001 according to BA). It turned out to be a small haul (mostly Dunn and Kearns) and you can't really blame injuries for most of the failures. The lion's share of the kids just weren't that good (Gookie Dawkins, Dane Sardinha, Rob Bell, Brandon Larson, etc.). Even a lot of the "injured" kids had performance issues. We'll never know, but I don't think a healthy Ty Howington would have been a much better pitcher than Phil Dumatrait.

Say Joey Votto goes the Ben Broussard route, Bailey or Cueto get injured, the other plateaus, Drew Stubbs never learns how to hit a breaking ball, Devin Mesoraco mimics Gookie Dawkins' career (though obviously as a catcher) and Kyle Lotzkar goes the way of Chris Gruler and Justin Gillman - that would basically leave you with Jay Bruce and a small haul of others. I'm not saying that will happen, but I've seen these chickens get counted while still in their eggs before. I lost count of how many times I was told the Reds were on track to have a kick-butt young team in 2003 (including during the early part of the 2003 season).

[Strikes Out Looking]

Excuse me, but Austin Kearns didn't account for any of the Reds organizational production in 2007.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking

Excuse me, but Austin Kearns didn't account for any of the Reds organizational production in 2007.

??

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking

Excuse me, but Austin Kearns didn't account for any of the Reds organizational production in 2007.

I'm pretty sure that "organizational production," by the terms of the article, means production of players who were developed by the Reds, whether or not they're still with the club.

[RedsBaron]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

I'm pretty sure that "organizational production," by the terms of the article, means production of players who were developed by the Reds, whether or not they're still with the club.

You are correct.

[TeamBoone]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

I'm pretty sure that "organizational production," by the terms of the article, means production of players who were developed by the Reds, whether or not they're still with the club.

Then it definitely should have been stated more clearly in the article as it specifically stated: "Just two players (outfielders Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns, with 21 Win Shares apiece) accounted for more than half of Cincinnati's extremely meager organizational production this season".