2008 Reds major league breakout player

[TRF]

IMO it's got to be Matt Belisle. He was perfectly handled the last three seasons, broken in as a reliever, given the occasional spot start, and got stretched out this year to 177 innings. He doesn't walk a lot of batters though he is a little HR prone, some of that can be attributed to this being his first year as a starter. Really he had the same year as Arroyo, and I think he can improve on the K's, IP and HR's.

[RedlegJake]

I'd agree - I'm high on Belisle. K to BB rate is excellent, overall K rate is decent, and if a high BABIP is unlucky his .330 qualifies - fewer hits should fall in. Also his dErA was over a run better than his actual. Put it together and he looks ready to have a decent season. Bailey looked good when he returned - if he just let's his talent play and doesn't get in his own way he should have a good year, too. And that is why I think the Reds need to fix the defense as much as add pitching. Helping the best pitchers from the group we already have will tend to improve several guys numbers. Add experience gained for Burton, Coutlangus and all you have to do is subtract Stanton and Coffey and things look much better.

Breakouts:

1. Belisle
2. Hamilton
3. Bailey
4. Votto
5. Burton
5-1/2. Ross 'improves' to something between '06 and '07.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

I'd agree - I'm high on Belisle. K to BB rate is excellent, overall K rate is decent, and if a high BABIP is unlucky his .330 qualifies - fewer hits should fall in. Also his dErA was over a run better than his actual. Put it together and he looks ready to have a decent season. Bailey looked good when he returned - if he just let's his talent play and doesn't get in his own way he should have a good year, too. And that is why I think the Reds need to fix the defense as much as add pitching. Helping the best pitchers from the group we already have will tend to improve several guys numbers. Add experience gained for Burton, Coutlangus and all you have to do is subtract Stanton and Coffey and things look much better.

Breakouts:

1. Belisle
2. Hamilton
3. Bailey
4. Votto
5. Burton
5-1/2. Ross 'improves' to something between '06 and '07.

Can a guy with a sub 2.60 ERA really have a 'breakout' year the next season?

[bucksfan2]

Ahh the love for Belisle continues. Not sold on him and I acutally think he should be moved to the pen in order to focus on one inning instead of starting or long relief. I think both his consistancy and his back are problems with Belisle.

I think Hamilton is going to have a huge season. As long as he is inserted in the lineup every day and not messed with he will produce. I also look for a big season from Phillips. He improved last season and there is no reason he can't improve this season. I look for Bailey, Votto, and Bruce to produce this season but I dont know if I would consider them breakout players.

[Jpup]

Josh Hamilton

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I look for Bailey, Votto, and Bruce to produce this season but I dont know if I would consider them breakout players.

it's going to be hard for Jay Bruce to produce in the majors when he is spending most of his time in Louisville.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Can a guy with a sub 2.60 ERA really have a 'breakout' year the next season?

Well...a full year like we saw in the second half anyway but point taken.

[WMR]

Originally Posted by M2

The old saying is usually you have to be good enough to win a GG for a year or two before you get one.

This quote is why I pick Brandon Phillips. He replicates his 2007 performance, makes the All-Star team, and wins a Gold Glove (heck, maybe even increases the OBP a bit. )

[princeton]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Can a guy with a sub 2.60 ERA really have a 'breakout' year the next season?

I must have missed his 35 saves.

One of these days, JimBo will buy a ticket to see Krivsky's statue in the Rule V Hall of Fame.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by princeton

I must have missed his 35 saves.

One of these days, JimBo will buy a ticket to see Krivsky's statue in the Rule V Hall of Fame.

Saves are overrated. If a guy faces 3-4-5 in the 7th or 8th he probably deserves the 'save' more than the guy who just happens to finish the game.

[RedsManRick]

I'll go with Marcus McBeth as my break-out guy: 50 IP, 3ish ERA, 45 K. He'll follow a path similar to the one we saw Burton walk this year.

I think EE could break out, but I'm not excited about the impact of Mr. Walks Clog The Bases Baker leading the charge. Edwin was popping up every thing in site last year with a pull-happy, must-drive-in-runners approach. I'd put his upside at .280/.375/.500, but he needs to go back to that line drive hitting doubles machine from 2006 and stop trying to kill the ball every time.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Saves are overrated. If a guy faces 3-4-5 in the 7th or 8th he probably deserves the 'save' more than the guy who just happens to finish the game.

it's an argument of a logician, which is refuted by people that play (and pay for) the game. You know, experts.

if Burton's great, then he'll have no problem with the lesser role of closing games. it shouldn't be a hard job to claim.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Ahh the love for Belisle continues. Not sold on him and I acutally think he should be moved to the pen in order to focus on one inning instead of starting or long relief. I think both his consistancy and his back are problems with Belisle.

I think Hamilton is going to have a huge season. As long as he is inserted in the lineup every day and not messed with he will produce. I also look for a big season from Phillips. He improved last season and there is no reason he can't improve this season. I look for Bailey, Votto, and Bruce to produce this season but I dont know if I would consider them breakout players.

Actually one of the reasons the Red's decided to go ahead and make Belisle a starter was his back. It seems the inconsistency in pitching out of the pen was adding to the issue as opposed to helping it.

You may not be sold on him be it's apparent he has the talent, the dedication and attitude to make it as a solid member of the rotation. Don't base it on results but actually watch what it is he is having problems with as he goes along and how he makes adjustments to determine whether or not he is growing.

Take a look at both he and Harang's 1st few years in the bigs, their treks are quite similiar. That may not always be the best way to determine a player's potential success but in this case I feel it's applicable as Belisle seems to have a similiar work ethic as Harang which is the most important aspect. I fully expect him to tweek a few things and by the end of his 2nd full season be a legit #3 in this rotation.

All that being said my pick would be Belisle but I am going to go another way just on a hunch.

My Pick: Bill Bray

[kheidg-]

Originally Posted by TRF

IMO it's got to be Matt Belisle. He was perfectly handled the last three seasons, broken in as a reliever, given the occasional spot start, and got stretched out this year to 177 innings. He doesn't walk a lot of batters though he is a little HR prone, some of that can be attributed to this being his first year as a starter. Really he had the same year as Arroyo, and I think he can improve on the K's, IP and HR's.

Actually, Arroyo had 22 QS and Belisle had 11. I like Belisle but come on...

[Strikes Out Looking]

Originally Posted by kheidg-

Actually, Arroyo had 22 QS and Belisle had 11. I like Belisle but come on...

I look at it this way. I'd rather have Belisle as the number 5 guy than Eric Milton. And in a perfect Reds world, Belisle is the number 5 next year.