2008 Reds major league breakout player

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Actually one of the reasons the Red's decided to go ahead and make Belisle a starter was his back. It seems the inconsistency in pitching out of the pen was adding to the issue as opposed to helping it.

You may not be sold on him be it's apparent he has the talent, the dedication and attitude to make it as a solid member of the rotation. Don't base it on results but actually watch what it is he is having problems with as he goes along and how he makes adjustments to determine whether or not he is growing.

Take a look at both he and Harang's 1st few years in the bigs, their treks are quite similiar. That may not always be the best way to determine a player's potential success but in this case I feel it's applicable as Belisle seems to have a similiar work ethic as Harang which is the most important aspect. I fully expect him to tweek a few things and by the end of his 2nd full season be a legit #3 in this rotation.

All that being said my pick would be Belisle but I am going to go another way just on a hunch.

My Pick: Bill Bray

I just dont see it with Belisle. He has had some good starts but he also has had some poor starts. I see him more of a poor mans Lohse. If he ever finds consistancy I think he can be a 4.0-4.5 ERA guy and be a good back of the rotation starter. I still would like to see him move to a late inning pitcher. I think he has good stuff and a lot of starters with good stuff have been successful when they can go all out over the course of 1 inning instead of pitcher 5 innings.

[CaiGuy]

When the thread about the Milton signing was referenced and linked, I noticed that many were having a similar discussion about Harang. Many had him 4th in their rotations; others didn't want him. Many thought that he would improve to be a good 4/5 starter; others thought that he wouldn't. I'm not saying that Belisle will be as good as Harang, but Belisle's career has been very similar to Harang's to this point. They have similar stuff, and both work hard. I think that Belisle could end up surprising and become a respectable 3rd starter. That would be huge for the Reds.

[dougdirt]

Homer Bailey. Healthy and with a little experience. Will strike out 8 guys per 9 innings, walk under 4 per 9 innings and allow fewer than 7.5 hits per 9 innings next season.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by kheidg-

Actually, Arroyo had 22 QS and Belisle had 11. I like Belisle but come on...

And that is the ONLY stat that is glaring as a difference between the two. Similar WHIP, K/9, BB rate, with Belisle a little easier to hit and a little stingier with the walks.

They were really close to being the same pitcher last year.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

And that is the ONLY stat that is glaring as a difference between the two. Similar WHIP, K/9, BB rate, with Belisle a little easier to hit and a little stingier with the walks.

They were really close to being the same pitcher last night.

They both pitched last night?!

Just messin' with ya, it just caught my eye while reading.

[TRF]

do'h!

[kheidg-]

Originally Posted by TRF

And that is the ONLY stat that is glaring as a difference between the two. Similar WHIP, K/9, BB rate, with Belisle a little easier to hit and a little stingier with the walks.

They were really close to being the same pitcher last year.

True, that is the stat that shows the biggest difference between the two pitchers. Again, don't get me wrong -- I'm not trying to bash Belisle -- but...

11 QS vs. 22 QS is a HUGE difference.
4.23 ERA vs. 5.32 ERA is a big difference.

[RedsManRick]

It would be interesting to see this post in poll form -- perhaps a bit more accessible that way.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by kheidg-

True, that is the stat that shows the biggest difference between the two pitchers. Again, don't get me wrong -- I'm not trying to bash Belisle -- but...

11 QS vs. 22 QS is a HUGE difference.
4.23 ERA vs. 5.32 ERA is a big difference.

The difference in ERA is mostly bad luck on Belisle's part. He should have been closer to 4.50

[Spitball]

My breakout player? The bullpen. I know that doesn't actually answer the question, but I believe the pen will be a positive element this year. With Burton, McBeth, Salmon, Bray, Coutlangus, Weathers, and hopefully someone (or two) not yet on the radar. Perhaps someone like Cueto will be a Scott Williamson-type surprise a emerge out of spring training to add depth and strength to the pen.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Spitball

My breakout player? The bullpen. I know that doesn't actually answer the question, but I believe the pen will be a positive element this year. With Burton, McBeth, Salmon, Bray, Coutlangus, Weathers, and hopefully someone (or two) not yet on the radar. Perhaps someone like Cueto will be a Scott Williamson-type surprise a emerge out of spring training to add depth and strength to the pen.

I think this is possible but for it to happen the team needs to avoid giving 150+ innings to Stanton and Majewski. If the pitchers you name comprise the pen with an addition or two thrown in, I think it can only be a positive. For me the wild card is Todd Coffey. If he pitches to his potential he can soak up 80 innings when the team needs him. If he's last year's guy, I fear he'll get too many chances.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think this is possible but for it to happen the team needs to avoid giving 150+ innings to Stanton and Majewski. If the pitchers you name comprise the pen with an addition or two thrown in, I think it can only be a positive. For me the wild card is Todd Coffey. If he pitches to his potential he can soak up 80 innings when the team needs him. If he's last year's guy, I fear he'll get too many chances.

Not even funny to bring that up, because if Stanton appears in 71 games this season his option kicks in for '09. Kill me now.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Ahh the love for Belisle continues. Not sold on him and I acutally think he should be moved to the pen in order to focus on one inning instead of starting or long relief. I think both his consistancy and his back are problems with Belisle.

I think Hamilton is going to have a huge season. As long as he is inserted in the lineup every day and not messed with he will produce. I also look for a big season from Phillips. He improved last season and there is no reason he can't improve this season. I look for Bailey, Votto, and Bruce to produce this season but I dont know if I would consider them breakout players.

Agree with you on Belisle. He is no more than a #5 starter or swing-man type. Nice to have, but no breakout candidate IMO.

Hamilton will do well, I agree. I'm a bit worried about his durability, though. He may have the makings of the next J.D. Drew - tantalizing talent, but not on the field a whole lot.

Phillips, I think, may have reached his peak unless he improves his plate discipline. I don't think his power projects to increase too much (it's already at a pretty high level for a player of his build I think... unless he's Soriano or Eric Davis, which is unlikely) and steals, well, I think they just look pretty on the stat sheet more than anything else. I he improves his OBP to around .360 or .370, we've got ourselves a breakout... but I'm worried that he's too enamored with his recent 30-30 fame to change his game in that way.

[boognish]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Agree with you on Belisle. He is no more than a #5 starter or swing-man type. Nice to have, but no breakout candidate IMO.

Hamilton will do well, I agree. I'm a bit worried about his durability, though. He may have the makings of the next J.D. Drew - tantalizing talent, but not on the field a whole lot.

Phillips, I think, may have reached his peak unless he improves his plate discipline. I don't think his power projects to increase too much (it's already at a pretty high level for a player of his build I think... unless he's Soriano or Eric Davis, which is unlikely) and steals, well, I think they just look pretty on the stat sheet more than anything else. I he improves his OBP to around .360 or .370, we've got ourselves a breakout... but I'm worried that he's too enamored with his recent 30-30 fame to change his game in that way.

I'd like to say I believe this is an outstanding assessment, but I do have a quibble with the bit about Belisle...based on context alone. If Belisle can curtail the homerun ball (and extra base hits in general) and pitch better with runners on base, an inning soaker with a Run Average in the 4.8 range is very valuable especially considering the ballpark.

[M2]

The Reds 2008 breakout player hasn't been acquired yet. My guess is he'll be a catcher with a decent glove and a clue at the plate who enjoys a power boost courtesy of the GAB.