Bill James 2008 Projections for select Reds players

[dougdirt]

Thanks to fangraphs.com for the information.

Player	        AB	2B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Josh Hamilton	410	23	31	0.305	0.382	0.598	0.979
Jay Bruce	535	41	36	0.308	0.363	0.602	0.965
Adam Dunn	566	31	43	0.251	0.386	0.537	0.923
Joey Votto	460	30	23	0.307	0.388	0.526	0.914
Ed. Encarnacion	494	34	20	0.296	0.366	0.490	0.856
Ken Griffey Jr	495	24	29	0.263	0.353	0.487	0.840
Jeff Keppinger	255	14	3	0.322	0.382	0.420	0.802
Scott Hatteberg	180	10	4	0.272	0.370	0.394	0.765
Br. Phillips	630	32	23	0.270	0.318	0.440	0.757
Norris Hopper	220	8	0	0.318	0.362	0.364	0.725
Alex Gonzalez	425	28	13	0.254	0.308	0.416	0.724


Player	        IP	H	ERA	BB	K
Aaron Harang	235	239	3.91	62	199
Bronson Arroyo	212	217	4.08	63	145
Matt Belisle	169	195	4.79	46	119
Jared Burton	60	60	4.20	28	50
Bill Bray	40	41	4.05	14	43
David Weathers	75	70	3.84	31	54
F. Cordero	61	54	3.54	25	68

Those are what James has projected for those guys. Other players do not have projections available on Fangraphs.com, so I couldn't post them.

Thought this could spark some nice talk about what our guys may do next year.

[pedro]

Bill James is pretty much is predicting Jay Bruce will be Ted Williams in 1939 minus about .020 in BA.

That's some serious expectation.

[vaticanplum]

I'm sorry if this is a dumb question, but how does he determine the plate appearances? There are a few there that look a little high to me based on individual histories.

I'd also say the line on Matt Belisle looks a little optimistic; I'd like to know more of the stats involved in these determinations.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by pedro

Bill James is pretty much is predicting Jay Bruce will be Ted Williams in 1939 minus about .020 in BA.

That's some serious expectation.

I completely agree. I love JB and all, but that prediction seems preposterous.

With that said, I think most of those look to be about right. I think Phillips may hit a few more than what is projected. I also think Burton's ERA will be better than what he's projecting, but other than that, I think most of his predictions are pretty good.

[LoganBuck]

Further evidence on why trading Bruce is a bad thing.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

I'd also say the line on Matt Belisle looks a little optimistic; I'd like to know more of the stats involved in these determinations.

Well last season, with average luck, Belisle would have posted numbers perhaps bettering those numbers. I think a projection like that is well within reason for Belisle, and actually I think he could post an ERA in the 4.30 range with average luck.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Start printing those WS tickets!

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by vaticanplum

I'm sorry if this is a dumb question, but how does he determine the plate appearances? There are a few there that look a little high to me based on individual histories.

I'd also say the line on Matt Belisle looks a little optimistic; I'd like to know more of the stats involved in these determinations.

You can see a lot more numbers at fangraphs.com. Just type in the player you want to see and look at his stats.

[Cedric]

Pretty much verifies the notion that Jay Bruce is one of the top five most valuable hitters in baseball today. Hopefully every team we are talking to realizes that also.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

What did Brandon Phillips ever do to Bill James?

[Playadlc]

Good Lord...that is one scary good offense.

[Cedric]

I highly doubt that Phillips declines that much in terms of slugging percentage. But he's a guy that Bill James and others just don't trust. Hackers don't get much respect. It takes more than two years for a hacker to get past the possible fluke stage.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Playadlc

Good Lord...that is one scary good offense.

Load up on the LOOGYs, NL Central, here come the Cincinnati Reds!

If Edwin starts the season in another funk, watching this team face left-handed pitching might require a cigarette and a blindfold.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by Austin Kearns

Well last season, with average luck, Belisle would have posted numbers perhaps bettering those numbers. I think a projection like that is well within reason for Belisle, and actually I think he could post an ERA in the 4.30 range with average luck.

I agree about Belisle. I think he's a real sleeper.

I also think Phillips will have a better OBP and SLG than projected.

[RedlegJake]

Some other James predictions:

He obviously grades guy coming off injuries as not pitching a lot in the next season :

Colon 70 ip 51 Ks 73 hits 4.24 era
Garcia 62 ip 44 Ks 63 hits 4.06 era
Prior 75 ip 85 Ks 66 hits 3.60 era
Benson 130 ip 77 Ks 137 hits 4.43 era
Jennings 150 ip 99 Ks 164 hits 4.86 era
Wells 135 ip 74 Ks 158 hits 4.33 era
Tomko 137 ip 87 Ks 150 hits 4.53 era

Silva 199 ip 82 Ks 239 hits 4.61 era
Lohse 188 ip 116 Ks 210 hits 4.69 era

and the best looking projection among this group:
Lieber 167 ip 107 Ks 185 hits 4.04 era

Now 6 pitchers as a counterpoint:

Bedard 210 ip 207 Ks 196 hits 3.69 era
Haren 213 ip 168 Ks 211 hits 3.72 era
Rich Hill 206 ip 223 Ks 173 hits 3.50 era
Marshall 102 ip 68 Ks 102 his 4.15 era
Capuano 145 ip 118 Ks 151 hits 4.41 era
N Lowry 194 ip 129 Ks 192 hits 4.13 era

Interesting that James expects Rich Hill to be better than Bedard or Haren in 08 and Noah Lowry to be a lot better than I expected.

Just food for thought. Looking at projections for Lohse and Silva, James pretty much agrees that they're going to be way overpaid for what they'll give you. Garcia's number are for a half year so might be pretty accurate. Colon's numbers aren't bad if you could get a full season at that pace. Marshall and Lowry's projections are extremely similar except James projects Marshall for half the innings which I think unlikely.

Reinforces my thought that Lieber is the number one FA, especially if you can buy a single year contract. I don't get his numbers for Benson, though. They're a lot etter than I'd project but I am no Bill James. Finally it does show that the Reds really need to trade for a starter because the projected differences are stark. We already knew that, though.