Who is more ready?

[Will M]

I would be happy to see the Reds keep all four of our 'A' prospects ( and Hamilton ).
Put both Cueto and Bailey in the rotation for 2008.
Pick up someone who could be a #5/swingman in case one of them falters. If we win in 2008 great but I think 2009 and beyond is what the Reds should be going for. Why trade the farm for a one year shot? Try to field a competetive team year after year.

I do admit innings are an issue. We don't want to overuse the young arms. That is why getting a #5/swingman would be a good idea.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Will M

I would be happy to see the Reds keep all four of our 'A' prospects ( and Hamilton ).
Put both Cueto and Bailey in the rotation for 2008.
Pick up someone who could be a #5/swingman in case one of them falters. If we win in 2008 great but I think 2009 and beyond is what the Reds should be going for. Why trade the farm for a one year shot? Try to field a competetive team year after year.

I do admit innings are an issue. We don't want to overuse the young arms. That is why getting a #5/swingman would be a good idea.

Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Bailey and Cueto with Maloney as insurance in AAA. Cueto is not the one that worries me so much with innings, seeing as he pitched 196 this year between the minors and winter league. I would love to have a veteran arm to come in and be able to give the Reds a solid 4.75 ERA and 185 innings next year, I am just not sure they can get that at any type of reasonable price.

[Superdude]

Bailey allowed a ton fewer hits (5.86 per 9 innings compared to 9 per 9 innings for Cueto), a ton fewer HR (0.46/9 compared to 0.81/9) and had a lower WHIP. Cueto ran with the much better walk rate and a slightly better strikeout rate.

Personally the biggest things each guy has over the other is Baileys ridiculously lower hit rate and Cuetos much better walk rate. I like the guy allowing more than 3 fewer hits per game myself.....

IMO, the reason for Bailey's 3 point lower hit rate was nothing more than luck. He had a .254BABIP in Louisville. You could maybe argue that pitchers can control this stat somewhat against minor league hitters, but Bailey's career BABIP was .309 before he reached Lousville. Chris Welsh might call this being crafty, but it seems more realistic to attribute this to good fortune and the fact that Chris Dickerson can cover half the field with a broken leg. Here's both their numbers in the minor leagues...

Bailey:  317.2IP  3.43FIP  3.43ERA  .297BABIP  9.85K/9  7.15H/9  4.23BB/9  0.51HR/9  
Cueto:  348.1IP  3.05FIP  3.28ERA  .301BABIP   9.26K/9  7.76H/9  2.12BB/9  .062HR/9

Bailey's stuff is obviously a tick better, but Cueto has out pitched him in my mind.

[Blue]

I think Maloney has a better shot at making the team out of Spring Training than Cueto. I wouldn't mind seeing Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney all three in there if we can't find another vet starter. I don't think any of them would be any worse than Belisle or something we can find on the scrap heap.

[Ron Madden]

I believe Bailey may have a higher ceiling than Cueto but...

I also believe that Cueto could help the Reds more than Bailey can in the 2008 season.

[DanielJ]

Originally Posted by TRF

Well, he isn't that much younger, and if you consider their respective backgrounds, I bet Bailey had the benefit of better coaching growing up.

There is no question that Cueto has better command, yet you think Bailey's will improve when he's never shown that he can do that. His BB rate has gone UP every year. You say Cueto cannot make hitters struggle yet Cueto in his ML career allows only about a hit more per 9 than Bailey. So Bailey can improve in an area where he's never shown that ability, but Cueto can't even though his H/9 dropped when he went from A+ to AA.

For all the insight you provide about the Reds' minor league system and it's players, you tend to turn a blind eye when it comes to your favorites. The warts on Bailey are bigger than the ones on Cueto. Cueto's biggest knock against him is his size. I hope Bailey can become Nolan Ryan, I'm pretty sure Cueto can be Roy Oswalt.

Hi, first time poster here. I'm just curious. Wouldn't Bailey's BB/9 numbers going up be a result of his trying to work his breaking pitches in more? I recall that was a major knock against Bailey before he was called up that he was almost strictly a fastball pitcher?

If so, I think that what will make or break Bailey this year is if he can somehow gain command of those pitches.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by DanielJ

Hi, first time poster here. I'm just curious. Wouldn't Bailey's BB/9 numbers going up be a result of his trying to work his breaking pitches in more? I recall that was a major knock against Bailey before he was called up that he was almost strictly a fastball pitcher?

If so, I think that what will make or break Bailey this year is if he can somehow gain command of those pitches.

I think that is part of it. Welcome to the board. Keep posting.

The problem that many on here have is that it doesn't seem like Bailey has been able to solve the problem with his breaking pitches and that he'll struggle similarly next season. If he goes to his fastball too much in the majors (especially if its after falling behind in the count with secondary pitches that he hasn't harnesed command of), he'll get killed.

Personally I don't want to see Bailey or Cueto in the rotation next season, but that doesn't mean I want them traded. I'd rather see both stay in AAA. Bailey needs to build up his innings and continue to refine those pitches. Cueto is more ready IMO - having thrown nearly 200 innings between the minor leagues and winter ball. He has faced some high level hitters in winter ball so the knock of only 22 AAA innings isn't really a true reading. I do agree with the posters who say they would rather see Cueto and Bailey than to spend $50 Million on Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse or to ravage the rotation and the pen with someone of the Kirk Saarloos or Brett Tomko caliber.

I'd like to see one more year for the entire minor league pitching depth to mature. With Bailey and Cueto ready later in 2008 or 2009. By 2009 Fisher, Thompson, Lecure and maybe Wood will be knocking at the door and the Reds may be on the verge of having a pipeline of pitching to supplement the big league staff. Bailey and Cueto don't really seem like supplements to Harang and Arroyo as much as they're successors at the top of the rotation with these other guys coming along for the lower spots on the cheap. That is how the team will stay competetive for years (though I hope they keep Harang around for a long time).

Maloney seems more like Dumatrait to me. He's looked good in the minors but I'm sleptical about his chances in the majors. IMO he's one to deal this year in a package for a mid rotation guy.

I'd like to see the Reds add a mid-level starter or two (it doesn't have to be a star like Bedard) that can be around for a few years while keeping the top two guys in AAA to ripen. A couple of mid-level additions while keeping Bailey and Cueto should begin a run of many years of pitching for the big club.

[Highlifeman21]

Just b/c Bailey's pitched at the MLB level and Cueto hasn't doesn't mean Cueto's not more ready now.

FWIW, I also think both of them should spend the full 2008 season in AAA. With or without them at the MLB level, the Reds aren't winners in 2008.

[Betterread]

As we debate their comparative readiness, let's remember a few things.
They are both 21 years old. They are both healthy. They are the two most talented pitchers the Reds organization has seen since Jose Rijo.
If they need a year (or even more) to transition to the rigors of major league starting - that would be reasonable.
Then after that, it is entirely predictable that they may take a year or two of inconsistent performances (that would be reflected in their statistical measures of performance) before they reach their projected ceilings.
My advice is to have patience with these two young, talented pitchers. All pitchers need time to develop, these two are no different. Right now they are years ahead of schedule. Lets give them credit for that.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I guess its just a little bit of faith that he continues to improve along with the actual improvement that I did see. As far as his control goes, 2005 was long ago and his BB rate was very high that year. 2006 it got a whole lot better. I think he still falls between 3.5 and 4 next year, but don't see it being higher than that. I think his strikeouts come in at 8 per 9 as well next year.

If you get Bailey to 175 innings, you're looking at seeing upwards of 80 walks from him. That's crazy, and it's inviting arm trouble because of the increased number of pitches he'll be throwing just to make it through 5 innings and number of "high stress" pitches he'll be making with runners on.

To put that number in perspective -- Aaron Harang threw 231 IP and only walked 52 batters. Fifty more innings pitched, roughly 30 fewer free passes than Bailey would be projected to. Matt Belisle threw 177.2 IP and only walked 43.

Until Homer Bailey gets his walks under control -- at the very least into the 3 to sub-3 range -- he's a poor option for any role on the major league club. If I'm running the Reds, he gets parked at AAA until he figures that out.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

If you get Bailey to 175 innings, you're looking at seeing upwards of 80 walks from him. That's crazy, and it's inviting arm trouble because of the increased number of pitches he'll be throwing just to make it through 5 innings and number of "high stress" pitches he'll be making with runners on.

To put that number in perspective -- Aaron Harang threw 231 IP and only walked 52 batters. Fifty more innings pitched, roughly 30 fewer free passes than Bailey would be projected to. Matt Belisle threw 177.2 IP and only walked 43.

Until Homer Bailey gets his walks under control -- at the very least into the 3 to sub-3 range -- he's a poor option for any role on the major league club. If I'm running the Reds, he gets parked at AAA until he figures that out.

There aren't that many power pitchers with sub 3.00 walk rates.... You are picking out two of the better controled pitchers in all of baseball to make a comparison.
Carlos Zambrano walked 101 in 216 last year..... would you put him in AAA too?

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Blue

I think Maloney has a better shot at making the team out of Spring Training than Cueto. I wouldn't mind seeing Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney all three in there if we can't find another vet starter. I don't think any of them would be any worse than Belisle or something we can find on the scrap heap.

I don't. Maloney has spent next to no time at 3a. Bailey has spent a lot and Cueto has spent a decent amount.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I don't. Maloney has spent next to no time at 3a. Bailey has spent a lot and Cueto has spent a decent amount.

Cueto has 5 more AAA innings than Maloney does. 17 innings for Maloney and 22 for Cueto. Hardly a difference.

[kentjett]

A lot of people are down on Homer because he got roughed up when he tried to pitch through his injury. His fastball was down to low 90's and he was struggling w/ his curve. His fastball was back up to mid to high 90's when he returned and his #'s were better. He is usually accurate w/ his fastball but if that fastball is in the low 90's, it will get smacked. He started to throw his curve more than usual and he struggled. He will eventually get better control of his curve like pitchers usually do when they mature and he will show that he has ace potential. Cueto is the most major league ready but he will never be a #1. If I had to put one in the rotation right now, it would definitely be Cueto. Bailey will be better in 2-3 years.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by kentjett

A lot of people are down on Homer because he got roughed up when he tried to pitch through his injury. His fastball was down to low 90's and he was struggling w/ his curve. His fastball was back up to mid to high 90's when he returned and his #'s were better. He is usually accurate w/ his fastball but if that fastball is in the low 90's, it will get smacked. He started to throw his curve more than usual and he struggled. He will eventually get better control of his curve like pitchers usually do when they mature and he will show that he has ace potential. Cueto is the most major league ready but he will never be a #1. If I had to put one in the rotation right now, it would definitely be Cueto. Bailey will be better in 2-3 years.

Almost none of Bailey peripheral are better than Cueto's, and the ones that are, are only a tick better. Plus Cueto walks about half as many guys.

Cueto projects as a future #1 as much as Bailey does.