Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The #6 guy is WAY more talented than the #46 guy. Todd Frazier is the Reds #6 rated guy by Baseball America. Do you really think he isn't more talented than someone like a Denis Phipps type?

It may have been a bit of hyperbole, but I agree with his general premise. If you look at my rankings, outside of the top 5 guys, nobody is that much sexier than the next.

[princeton]

sure, I can see a Jordan Smith going right around a Josh Roenicke. I'm not saying who, but it'll happen. Since the team has more quantity than quality, it should try not to fall in love with particular players. There are too many major league holes to fill.

[dougdirt]

I think there are tiers in our system where the grouping of players really are just all falling in line with eachother. The top 4, then 5-10 are roughly in the same range, then 11-20, then 21-30, then 31-50 all seem to be in line with eachother.

Its not like that in all systems, but in the better systems in baseball, which the Reds likely have the #2/3 system in baseball behind just the Devil Rays and maybe the Red Sox (yeah, how does that one make you feel about competing for a WS over the next 10 years) there is definately a different set of talent. I am not saying don't trade certain guys, but there is certainly a large difference in trade value of a guy like Drew Stubbs/Todd Frazier have a much stronger value (although Frazier can't be traded yet) than someone much lower on the list and its not close to being able to substitute the players for guys in the 15+ range.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think there are tiers in our system where the grouping of players really are just all falling in line with eachother. The top 4, then 5-10 are roughly in the same range, then 11-20, then 21-30, then 31-50 all seem to be in line with eachother.

Its not like that in all systems, but in the better systems in baseball, which the Reds likely have the #2/3 system in baseball behind just the Devil Rays and maybe the Red Sox (yeah, how does that one make you feel about competing for a WS over the next 10 years) there is definately a different set of talent. I am not saying don't trade certain guys, but there is certainly a large difference in trade value of a guy like Drew Stubbs/Todd Frazier have a much stronger value (although Frazier can't be traded yet) than someone much lower on the list and its not close to being able to substitute the players for guys in the 15+ range.

According to my rankings, I think the tiers would look more like this:
1-3
4-5
6-25

In other words, outside of the big four + Maloney and Frazier, everybody is in the same ballpark.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Benihana

According to my rankings, I think the tiers would look more like this:
1-3
4-5
6-25.

exactly, although I think it's an even broader set of players in the third class.

I've seen us have stronger players in the 6-10 range, but they're not here right now. So if a team takes a shine to our top 10 players, let them shop. They're very replaceable.

[dougdirt]

The big 4 + Maloney and Frazier leaves you with one of those guys rated in the same ballpark as the #25 guy.... while I have Maloney higher now (thanks to a more up to date scouting report than I have when I put out my Top 40) at around 13-15, I don't see him being anywhere near Frazier in terms of talent or value. I get that he had success in the upper minors, but I don't see it projecting all that well to the majors (4/5 type guy with a 1.40 WHIP and a 4.75 or so ERA). While that is valuable, I don't have that in the same type of grouping as a Todd Frazier or the Big 4 (or several others for that matter).

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The big 4 + Maloney and Frazier leaves you with one of those guys rated in the same ballpark as the #25 guy.... while I have Maloney higher now (thanks to a more up to date scouting report than I have when I put out my Top 40) at around 13-15, I don't see him being anywhere near Frazier in terms of talent or value. I get that he had success in the upper minors, but I don't see it projecting all that well to the majors (4/5 type guy with a 1.40 WHIP and a 4.75 or so ERA). While that is valuable, I don't have that in the same type of grouping as a Todd Frazier or the Big 4 (or several others for that matter).

Well I didn't include Votto in my rankings because his career as a minor leaguer is assuredly over. So if you look at my rankings, the 6-25 tier excludes those guys + Maloney and Frazier.

That said, I do like Maloney a lot better than anyone else in the system right now, with the exception of those guys listed above.

Originally Posted by princeton

exactly, although I think it's an even broader set of players in the third class.

I've seen us have stronger players in the 6-10 range, but they're not here right now. So if a team takes a shine to our top 10 players, let them shop. They're very replaceable.

The only reason I stopped at 25 is because I only listed 25 players. I agree, the third tier could probably be expanded much beyond that.

[11larkin11]

I have it as the Big 4, then Lotzkar and Frazier, then Maloney

[princeton]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

I have it as the Big 4, then Lotzkar and Frazier, then Maloney

that's very reasonable, but Lotzkar/Frazier/Maloney is based on VERY little data: Maloney's post-Phils run, Frazier's draft status and handful of Dayton atbats, and Lotzkar's draft status and handful of innings at Billings. Nice indicators, but very flawed.

things always change a lot. But in this organization, with our depth but lack of high end players in the 6-10 range, they'll change even more.

good time to trade

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by princeton

that's very reasonable, but Lotzkar/Frazier/Maloney is based on VERY little data: Maloney's post-Phils run, Frazier's draft status and handful of Dayton atbats, and Lotzkar's draft status and handful of innings at Billings. Nice indicators, but very flawed.

things always change a lot. But in this organization, with our depth but lack of high end players in the 6-10 range, they'll change even more.

good time to trade

The Reds have several guys who could be high end types soon. Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, Wood, Watson and Stubbs all jump to mind who have high upsides and with a good season next year could catapult into 'high end' Top 50 prospects.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

With pitchers and catchers only six weeks away, I thought I'd take a gander at the minor league system, and see where people wanted to start several of our prospects. Here is my list (all ages are as of P&C report date):

1. J.Bruce, 20, OF AAA Start in AAA until one of the OF's get hurt, then bring him up and start him everyday. I wouldn't be upset, however, if he was the Opening Day CF.

2. H.Bailey 21, RHP AAA If the Reds can acquire another starter, I start him in AAA until one of the rotation spots open up. At that point, he's up and in the rotation for good. If the Reds don't acquire another SP, I'm fine with him starting the year as the #5.

3. J.Cueto 21, RHP AAA Start in AAA, if he does well I bring him up to pitch out of the bullpen beginning in June. Provided he continues to progress, I give him a couple of spot starts at the end of the summer.

4. T.Frazier 21, SS/3B A I start him in Dayton, but if he hits well he goes to Sarasota by June.

5. M.Maloney 24, LHP AAA He starts as the #3 pitcher in Louisville, assuming Bailey is down there as well. Once Bailey gets called up, he is next in line for spot starting duty if a pitcher goes down in Cincy.

6. J.Roenicke 25, RHP AAA I start him in Louisville, and leave him there until the ASBreak. If he is doing well, look for him in Cincy by the end of the summer.

7. D.Stubbs 23, OF A+ He starts in Sarasota and must continue his hot streak he ended the year with. If he does, he's in Chattanooga by the ASBreak. If he doesn't, he's bust city.

8. T.Wood 21, LHP A+ He also starts in Sarasota, but should look for a call up to Chattanooga around the ASBreak.

9. K.Lotzkar 18, RHP A He should have a good year in Dayton, where he remains all season long.

10. D.Mesoraco 19, C A He should also be slotted in at Dayton for the duration of the season. Hopefully he starts hitting.

11. D.Dorn 23, OF AA He'll start at Chattanooga, but could be in Louisville by midsummer if he keeps hitting. Look for his promotion to coincide with Stubbs coming to Chattanooga.

12. S.Watson 22, RHP A+ He needs to regain his composure with a full season in Sarasota. Hopefully he bounces back and regains his form.

13. C.Fisher 24, RHP AA He'll start in Chattanooga, although he'll be 25 before the season starts. Once Bailey and/or Cueto are promoted to the big club, look for him to fill their spot in the Louisville rotation. He has to gain consistency.

14. A.Rosales 24, INF AAA I start him in Louisville, but let him concentrate on playing one position. He had a solid half of a season in Chattanooga last season, and factoring in his age (he'll be 25 before the ASBreak) this is a good example of needing to challenge thy hitters.

15. J.Francisco 20, 3B A+ His power is tempting, but really needs to improve his plate discipline in Sarasota in order to remain relevant. His fielding needs to continue to improve as well.

Some others:
16. T.Pelland, 24 LHP AAA
17. B.Waring, 21 3B A/A+ (midseason promotion)
18. N.Soto, 18 SS/3B A
19. S.LeCure, 23 RHP AA/AAA (midseason promotion)
20. D.Thompson, 22 RHP A+/AA (midseason promotion)
21. C.Valaika, 22 2B A+
22. P.Viola, 24 LHP AA/AAA (midseason promotion)
23. D.Herrera, 23 LHP AAA
24. J.Turner, 22 2B A+
25. C.Tatum, 24 AA/AAA (midseason promotion)

Thoughts?

Hmm, I like the idea here.

#'s 1,4,5,12-14,16,19-22,24-25 I agree with.

#2 Bailey - I agree mostly assuming he has any command or approach issues lingering in ST. If he still insists on throwing his FB almost exclusively then he goes to AAA and stays until he works it out. If those things look reasonable in ST then he stays with the big club into and beyond OD.

#3 Cueto - I think he goes to AAA to start the season and perhaps comes up as the 5th starter when we go to a 5 man rotation. I assume we may start with a 4 man but I don't know how Dusty will handle those type of things.

#6 Roenicke - I think it's quite possible he starts out in AA and skips to AAA after a short time getting re-adjusted. Probably to AAA in June. I doubt he get's his cup of coffee this yr until Sept. unless the pen struggles again. I am hoping we don't need him until then.

#7 Stubbs - I may be all alone on this idea but I think given his age and struggles in the past I skip a tougher to hit in FSL and send him to start out in Chattanooga. If he can hit there (I think he can) there's no reason to have him ever play in Sarasota. If he is able to continue where he left off in Dayton then he may end the season in AAA, priming him for a shot at a Griffey-less '09 OF.

#8 Wood - I think he may very well go to AA to start, but I am fine with him starting at A+ assuming that he is in line for a quick promotion if all goes well. I am assuming/hoping he will be in AA rather quickly.

#'s 9,10 & 19 (Lotzkar, Mesoraco and Soto) I start off in Dayton and if they do well I keep them there. If they don't then I send them to Billings upon their start of the season. I may do that regardless with Soto and Mesoraco so they can get more PT.

#11 Dorn - I am with you on this but I could see him possibly starting in AAA. I would like to see him improve some vs. LHP 1st but I think he could pull it off in AAA right off.

#15 Francisco - I agree with A+ but only because we have so many guys behind him that need the PT in Dayton. Otherwise I don't think he has learned enough discipline to play in Sarasota. Hopefully he proves me wrong but I don't see it happening.

#17 Waring - I keep him at dayton unless he goes crazy at the plate for an extended period of time. I imagine he and Francisco could be switching 3rd base bags by July 1st, but it's more likely that they will both end the year in Dayton in some capacity. Juan in LF??

#23 Herrera - I start him at AA for a brief stint for the same reasons as Roenicke, however I would be fine with him starting at AAA as well. His makeup gives him a chance to fall on his face perhaps at AAA and still battle back if demoted.

Some other guys who I am also watching for are Cumberland, Castro, Henry, Manuel (could jump quickly), Jukich, Dickerson.


On the Dayton IF to start the season I see this. At least until Frazier proves he cannot play SS and then I make the necc. changes. Moving Cozart back and Frazier platooning 3rd and COF along with Waring. And perhaps a guy like Angel Cabrera could play some 2B in that scenario.

McKennon 1B
Cozart 2B
Frazier SS
Waring 3B

[princeton]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, Wood, Watson and Stubbs all jump to mind who have high upsides and with a good season next year could catapult into 'high end' Top 50 prospects.

pitchers deserve patience, but Mesoraco and Stubbs jump to mind as guys that could wash out completely next year

So far as I can tell, Bbusst has played only six good weeks during the last three years, while Mesoraco has played only six good weeks during his entire life (which fortunately/unfortunately came right before last year's draft)

[gedred69]

I give Dorn more props than #11. He has shown the ability/discipline that a GM has to be impressed with. Stubbs needs to show me continued improvement. (He may have been stunted by leading off, having done better a few spots down in the order). That's the organizations' fault if so. Some of the good hitting IF could well end up better suited to OF spots as well. And oh yeah, watch Bartles. He surprised at GCL/Pioneer. It's a wonderful thing to have so many high ceiling young players!

[11larkin11]

On the Dayton IF to start the season I see this. At least until Frazier proves he cannot play SS and then I make the necc. changes. Moving Cozart back and Frazier platooning 3rd and COF along with Waring. And perhaps a guy like Angel Cabrera could play some 2B in that scenario.

McKennon 1B
Cozart 2B
Frazier SS
Waring 3B[/QUOTE]

Where does Soto play in this scenario? Im thinking someone has to skip to A+, maybe Soto?

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The Reds have several guys who could be high end types soon. Mesoraco, Frazier, Lotzkar, Wood, Watson and Stubbs all jump to mind who have high upsides and with a good season next year could catapult into 'high end' Top 50 prospects.

I disagree with your assessment of Frazier and Wood as having high ceilings. Frazier is projected as a solid hitter (.280+ with 20/25 HRs) - which is ML average for 3B (I do not think he shows the ability to become a ML shortstop). I don't know what Wood is projected as because he doesn't command a consistent quality breaking pitch. If he doesn't develop a breaking pitch - he's bullpen bound. If his velocity does not return to the 2005 93-94 mph, his ceiling will be that of a middle reliever. His whole future rides on developing a good breaking pitch for 2008.