Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by gedred69

I give Dorn more props than #11. He has shown the ability/discipline that a GM has to be impressed with. Stubbs needs to show me continued improvement. (He may have been stunted by leading off, having done better a few spots down in the order). That's the organizations' fault if so. Some of the good hitting IF could well end up better suited to OF spots as well. And oh yeah, watch Bartles. He surprised at GCL/Pioneer. It's a wonderful thing to have so many high ceiling young players!

Dorn can hit. The problem is that his arm is sub-standard, which is not good for an outfielder. He had surgery on it and it will never be 100%. Maybe if he learned to play 1B.....

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

On the Dayton IF to start the season I see this. At least until Frazier proves he cannot play SS and then I make the necc. changes. Moving Cozart back and Frazier platooning 3rd and COF along with Waring. And perhaps a guy like Angel Cabrera could play some 2B in that scenario.

McKennon 1B
Cozart 2B
Frazier SS
Waring 3B

Where does Soto play in this scenario? Im thinking someone has to skip to A+, maybe Soto?

If anyone out of that group was going to skip to Sarasota, it most assuredly won't be Soto. It would be one of the college guys- either Frazier or Cozart. Cozart's glove and Frazier's bat could play at a higher level, but the flipside of their games need development. Too bad we can't combine them into one guy.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

Where does Soto play in this scenario? Im thinking someone has to skip to A+, maybe Soto?

That's the thing about speculating on where someone should play, it's not as easy as just saying well he should so therefore he will. Until you sit down and stack up the guys who clearly should be somewhere you don't always know what's actually ava. The thing with Soto is that he clearly needs to be playing ASAP and can't really afford to wait on Billings to start. But he is somewhat roadblocked, so he either goes to Dayton until Billings starts or.....?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by princeton

pitchers deserve patience, but Mesoraco and Stubbs jump to mind as guys that could wash out completely next year

So far as I can tell, Bbusst has played only six good weeks during the last three years, while Mesoraco has played only six good weeks during his entire life (which fortunately/unfortunately came right before last year's draft)

The idea that Mesoraco could 'wash out' at the age of 20, in his first full season of minor league baseball is laughable. As far as Drew Stubbs or whatever insult you want to hurl at a guy learning to play the game still.... 6 good weeks of baseball? There are 4 weeks in a month and 9 weeks over 2 months.
June 2006 - 2 weeks - .807 OPS
August 2006 - 2 weeks (injury took away the rest of the month) - .807 OPS
May 2007 - .846 OPS
July 2007 - .925 OPS
August 2007 - .907 OPS

So thats about 17 weeks right there. Let me also ask, how do 3 years come into play for Stubbs? He has spent a year and a half in the system that consisted of 28 weeks of baseball.

As for Mesoraco, he was a fine prospect as a sophomore, hit quite well as a junior (just couldn't play defense because of TJ surgery) and then played very well as a senior season. So what the heck are you talking about? The kid played with two hurt thumbs this summer for the Reds and you are ready for him to wash out already? Jeeze. I hope you aren't an investor.

Originally Posted by Betterread

I disagree with your assessment of Frazier and Wood as having high ceilings. Frazier is projected as a solid hitter (.280+ with 20/25 HRs) - which is ML average for 3B (I do not think he shows the ability to become a ML shortstop). I don't know what Wood is projected as because he doesn't command a consistent quality breaking pitch. If he doesn't develop a breaking pitch - he's bullpen bound. If his velocity does not return to the 2005 93-94 mph, his ceiling will be that of a middle reliever. His whole future rides on developing a good breaking pitch for 2008.

Todd Frazier may only project to hit 25 HR or so, but he also projects to hit about .300/.400 with those 25 HR.

As for Travis Wood.... there are so many left handed pitchers that work fastball/change up and hardly ever throw another pitch that I am not too worried about him developing a third pitch, but while we are talking about it.... he was throwing a curveball this year and it was coming along before the injuries. His change up is probably the best change up of any pitchers in the minor leagues, and his fastball is just fine. Cole Hamels works just fine in the 88-92 MPH range with his change up. He throws his curveball about 12% of the time. Johan Santana mixes in his slider just 12% of the time with his change/fastball. Having a third pitch is more for show at times than anything else.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Benihana

With pitchers and catchers only six weeks away, I thought I'd take a gander at the minor league system, and see where people wanted to start several of our prospects. Here is my list (all ages are as of P&C report date):

1. J.Bruce, 20, OF AAA Start in AAA until one of the OF's get hurt, then bring him up and start him everyday. I wouldn't be upset, however, if he was the Opening Day CF.

2. H.Bailey 21, RHP AAA If the Reds can acquire another starter, I start him in AAA until one of the rotation spots open up. At that point, he's up and in the rotation for good. If the Reds don't acquire another SP, I'm fine with him starting the year as the #5.

3. J.Cueto 21, RHP AAA Start in AAA, if he does well I bring him up to pitch out of the bullpen beginning in June. Provided he continues to progress, I give him a couple of spot starts at the end of the summer.

4. T.Frazier 21, SS/3B A I start him in Dayton, but if he hits well he goes to Sarasota by June.

5. M.Maloney 24, LHP AAA He starts as the #3 pitcher in Louisville, assuming Bailey is down there as well. Once Bailey gets called up, he is next in line for spot starting duty if a pitcher goes down in Cincy.

6. J.Roenicke 25, RHP AAA I start him in Louisville, and leave him there until the ASBreak. If he is doing well, look for him in Cincy by the end of the summer.

7. D.Stubbs 23, OF A+ He starts in Sarasota and must continue his hot streak he ended the year with. If he does, he's in Chattanooga by the ASBreak. If he doesn't, he's bust city.

8. T.Wood 21, LHP A+ He also starts in Sarasota, but should look for a call up to Chattanooga around the ASBreak.

9. K.Lotzkar 18, RHP A He should have a good year in Dayton, where he remains all season long.

10. D.Mesoraco 19, C A He should also be slotted in at Dayton for the duration of the season. Hopefully he starts hitting.

11. D.Dorn 23, OF AA He'll start at Chattanooga, but could be in Louisville by midsummer if he keeps hitting. Look for his promotion to coincide with Stubbs coming to Chattanooga.

12. S.Watson 22, RHP A+ He needs to regain his composure with a full season in Sarasota. Hopefully he bounces back and regains his form.

13. C.Fisher 24, RHP AA He'll start in Chattanooga, although he'll be 25 before the season starts. Once Bailey and/or Cueto are promoted to the big club, look for him to fill their spot in the Louisville rotation. He has to gain consistency.

14. A.Rosales 24, INF AAA I start him in Louisville, but let him concentrate on playing one position. He had a solid half of a season in Chattanooga last season, and factoring in his age (he'll be 25 before the ASBreak) this is a good example of needing to challenge thy hitters.

15. J.Francisco 20, 3B A+ His power is tempting, but really needs to improve his plate discipline in Sarasota in order to remain relevant. His fielding needs to continue to improve as well.

Some others:
16. T.Pelland, 24 LHP AAA
17. B.Waring, 21 3B A/A+ (midseason promotion)
18. N.Soto, 18 SS/3B A
19. S.LeCure, 23 RHP AA/AAA (midseason promotion)
20. D.Thompson, 22 RHP A+/AA (midseason promotion)
21. C.Valaika, 22 2B A+
22. P.Viola, 24 LHP AA/AAA (midseason promotion)
23. D.Herrera, 23 LHP AAA
24. J.Turner, 22 2B A+
25. C.Tatum, 24 AA/AAA (midseason promotion)

Thoughts?

Nice post. I basically agree with a few differences.

1. I'd push Frazier as high as possible to see if he can handle it. I'd start him at 3B in AA.

2. I'd really rather Bailey spend the year in AAA. I think he really needs to work-up to a starters workload in a situation that can be more controlled than the big leagues can. He has thrown 105, 138 and 120 innings the last 3 years and just isn't ready. IMO he needs 150 to 160 innings no more, no less in 2008. Too big an innings jump is too big a risk IMO. Working on his command while he's at it certainly woudn't hurt either. I'd rather Cueto and Maloney stay at AAA as well. Of the three I think Cueto may be most ready based on his Winter Ball numbers and his innings pitched. Maloney probably needs a little time at AAA but I think he is also more ready than Bailey. Maloney threw 170+ innigs in 2007.

3. I basically agree on Roenicke, but since he projects as a power set-up guy, I'd give him a chance to win that job on the Reds in Spring Training. Come in and Throw hard doesn't need as much prep time as pitchers in other roles. If he has command issues than send him down.

4. I'm guessing Mesoraco should stay at Billings in 2008. Given how he performed, Dayton seems like a huge jump for a high school kid.

5. I'd start Daryl Thompson off in AA. He seems like he's ready to step forward.

6. Not sure what to make of Watson. He's probably a bullpen guy who could come quickly in that role. I know the Reds wanted him to start to get enough innings to develop his pitches. Not sure where that stands. There is a crowd at AA and A+ for rotation spots, a move back to the pen might change things, but he stays in A+ if he's a starter. If the Reds make a deal trading a pitcher or two, I'm speculating that it could affect which way they go with him depending on who goes.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The idea that Mesoraco could 'wash out' at the age of 20, in his first full season of minor league baseball is laughable. As far as Drew Stubbs or whatever insult you want to hurl at a guy learning to play the game still.... 6 good weeks of baseball? There are 4 weeks in a month and 9 weeks over 2 months.
June 2006 - 2 weeks - .807 OPS
August 2006 - 2 weeks (injury took away the rest of the month) - .807 OPS
May 2007 - .846 OPS
July 2007 - .925 OPS
August 2007 - .907 OPS

So thats about 17 weeks right there. Let me also ask, how do 3 years come into play for Stubbs? He has spent a year and a half in the system that consisted of 28 weeks of baseball.

As for Mesoraco, he was a fine prospect as a sophomore, hit quite well as a junior (just couldn't play defense because of TJ surgery) and then played very well as a senior season. So what the heck are you talking about? The kid played with two hurt thumbs this summer for the Reds and you are ready for him to wash out already? Jeeze. I hope you aren't an investor.



Todd Frazier may only project to hit 25 HR or so, but he also projects to hit about .300/.400 with those 25 HR.

As for Travis Wood.... there are so many left handed pitchers that work fastball/change up and hardly ever throw another pitch that I am not too worried about him developing a third pitch, but while we are talking about it.... he was throwing a curveball this year and it was coming along before the injuries. His change up is probably the best change up of any pitchers in the minor leagues, and his fastball is just fine. Cole Hamels works just fine in the 88-92 MPH range with his change up. He throws his curveball about 12% of the time. Johan Santana mixes in his slider just 12% of the time with his change/fastball. Having a third pitch is more for show at times than anything else.

It might be a little early to make any judgements on Mesoraco this season, although I'm not optimistic. Start him in Billings if you want, but if a Top 15 draft pick can't even make his way to A ball in his second season, it's not a good sign. Stubbs on the other hand, better hit and hit well for the first couple months this season, especially if he's only in Sarasota. If he doesn't, like I said, he's bust city.

I do like Wood, and will be interested to see if he can finally remain healthy for a full season this year, and what he can do if he does. That said, he's got a long way to go before he approaches the same category as Bailey, Cueto, or even Maloney.

On another note, after reconsidering, I wouldn't be opposed to starting Frazier in Sarasota. Chattanooga would be too much of a jump, but Sarasota would be about right. Figure out where his future is on the diamond and place him there, then work Valaika, Turner, and Francisco around him.

[membengal]

Benihana, he's just a baby in baseball terms. And, a catcher to boot. The usual progression for players really doesn't apply to him. To say there is NO rush here is an understatement. If he's major league ready with a decent stick in five years by the age of 24, he would be one of the hot prospects in baseball, so rare are catchers who can hit and defend.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by membengal

Benihana, he's just a baby in baseball terms. And, a catcher to boot. The usual progression for players really doesn't apply to him. To say there is NO rush here is an understatement. If he's major league ready with a decent stick in five years by the age of 24, he would be one of the hot prospects in baseball, so rare are catchers who can hit and defend.

If anything I was agreeing with Doug about Mesoraco- I agree that there is no rush at all. However, if he can't hit his weight in his second year in rookie ball, there is cause for concern, especially considering the track record of high school catchers taken in the first round of the draft.

[princeton]

this FO has been drafting for need in the first round-- RHHing CFer, RHHing catcher, both plus defenders. Maybe Mesoraco and Stubbs makes them feel a lot better about those spots. However, if Mesoraco slugs .300 again, or if Stubbs strikes out in half of his atbats, then they'll consider drafting for either position again.

otherwise, I'd probably look for a topflight shortstop in the first round if they don't go pitching or RHHing OFer

personally, I think that Mesoraco will come through. It's not due to anything that he showed. My reasoning is simply that this SD hasn't missed THAT badly on any high round pick, yet, plus my grandmother could slug .450 at Billings.

I also hold out hope for Stubbs, but it's an important year for him. He at least has to keep his K rate where it is as he advances. And if low A pitchers can find holes in your swing...

it's interesting that some of our players hit better in Chattanooga than in Sarasota. That's not the first time that's happened. It might be worth jumping a couple of hitters straight from Dayton to AA. I probably wouldn't do Stubbs because of K's, but Justin Turner could go immediately, and Todd Frazier after a couple of months in Dayton.

[lollipopcurve]

Start him in Billings if you want, but if a Top 15 draft pick can't even make his way to A ball in his second season, it's not a good sign.

Not necessarily true, in my opinion. First of all, there are two levels of Rookie ball -- Billings is the natural progression from the GCL. Second, it's not all that unusual for high school kids to repeat years in the GCL. Justin Reed started 07 in the GCL after playing all of 06 there -- he moved to Billings midyear. Many feel it's crucial for a kid to have success at a level before promoting. Pushing Mesoraco to Dayton -- at any time in 08 -- would likely be a mistake, and I really doubt they'd do it. I would not be at all surprised -- or alarmed -- if he returned to the GCL in 08. I'd like to see him get to Billings at some point, but I wouldn't consider it a dark sign if he stayed in the GCL all summer, so long as his numbers jumped markedly.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I'd like to see him get to Billings at some point, but I wouldn't consider it a dark sign if he stayed in the GCL all summer, so long as his numbers jumped markedly.

That's exactly the point: his numbers have to jump markedly. Otherwise, I begin to get concerned.

[lollipopcurve]

That's exactly the point: his numbers have to jump markedly. Otherwise, I begin to get concerned.

That's if he repeats the GCL. If he goes to Billings. I wouldn't need to see the same jump offensively. You have to remember that as a catcher he has more defensive repsonsibilities than other players, and he'll have less time/energy for offense.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

That's if he repeats the GCL. If he goes to Billings. I wouldn't need to see the same jump offensively. You have to remember that as a catcher he has more defensive repsonsibilities than other players, and he'll have less time/energy for offense.

I do remember that. But I also remember Dane Sardinha, Jose Roderiguez, Brian Prince, Stephen Booth, Lonny Roa, Miguel Perez, and many, many others...

In other words, this organization has yet to develop even one catcher into a major leaguer this decade. And I'm not going to hold my breath for Devin. I hope he hits, I really do, but we'll see...

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Not necessarily true, in my opinion. First of all, there are two levels of Rookie ball -- Billings is the natural progression from the GCL. Second, it's not all that unusual for high school kids to repeat years in the GCL. Justin Reed started 07 in the GCL after playing all of 06 there -- he moved to Billings midyear. Many feel it's crucial for a kid to have success at a level before promoting. Pushing Mesoraco to Dayton -- at any time in 08 -- would likely be a mistake, and I really doubt they'd do it. I would not be at all surprised -- or alarmed -- if he returned to the GCL in 08. I'd like to see him get to Billings at some point, but I wouldn't consider it a dark sign if he stayed in the GCL all summer, so long as his numbers jumped markedly.

Furthermore, show me how many top 15 picks (position players especially) have repeated a year in rookie ball, even in this organization. Justin Reed may have been one example, but he was a fourth round pick. That's a far cry from an early first round pick.

I'm not saying I'm ready to declare Devin a bust by any stretch- it is far too early for that. I'm just saying he better start hitting, and soon- especially if he's going to remain in Rookie ball.

[membengal]

Or else...what?

The usual rules with regard to hitting don't necessarily apply to catchers, or progression, for that matter. Particularly HS catchers. We won't really know his trajectory toward bust or not for at least two more seasons...