Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds

[RedEye]

Interesting analysis from Tim Dierkes over at MLBTR...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/needs_...ies/index.html

Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds

Next up in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Reds. I realize the timing of this series wasn't ideal, doing a bunch and then tailing off. It's something I can improve next time around, but it still seems people would like to see the remaining teams reviewed. Anyway, here's how the Reds are set up:

C - Dave Ross
1B - Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Alex Gonzalez
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
LF - Adam Dunn
CF - Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper/Jay Bruce
RF - Ken Griffey Jr.

SP - Aaron Harang
SP - Bronson Arroyo
SP - Matt Belisle
SP - Homer Bailey
SP - Edinson Volquez/Johnny Cueto

Setup - David Weathers
Closer - Francisco Cordero

Needs:

The Reds had a middle of the pack offense in '07, same as '06. Last year the Reds had below league-average offense at catcher and third base. I think Encarnacion will be fine, so one need might be to upgrade over Ross behind the plate. Would it make sense to acquire Michael Barrett for peanuts, to see if he can return to form?

The Reds have enough depth in center field to stand pat. Even if Bruce needs a few more months in the minors, Freel can probably hold down the fort.

One could envision the '08 Reds cracking 800 runs if everyone stays healthy in '08, which would probably be top five in the league.

Not shockingly, the Reds' big need is on the run prevention side. Let's start with defense - they were third from the bottom in defensive efficiency in '07. Maybe a bit more of Gonzalez will help on that front, but the Reds are mostly locked in with their position players. They are not in a position to give up offense for defense.

The Reds allowed 853 runs in '07, 15th out of 16 NL teams. Their bullpen was awful and the rotation was below average. If the Reds push their runs allowed all the way down to 780, they're still probably just an 83 win team. Now, if they get the runs allowed down to 750, that's 86 wins. A dash of luck and they're in the playoffs. To allow 750 runs would be league average or maybe a touch better.

Cordero helps the Reds' previously terrible pen, but this rotation isn't good enough to get to 750 runs allowed. The Mets were at the 750 level last year, the Dodgers the year before. You generally need three solid 30-start guys, not two and a bunch of question marks. The Reds have a huge incentive to get Erik Bedard - with him, they're a playoff contender, without him they're not. They are a team on the fringe, and Jon Lieber or Brett Tomko won't push them over the edge. Add an ace, you can sniff 90 wins.

Dunn and Griffey might be gone after the '08 season, and the Cordero signing was a win-now move. Jonathan Mayo wouldn't give up Bruce for Bedard, but that might be the only way the Reds make the playoffs this year. It would be a huge gamble, and depends on whether the team is trying to win right now or in 2009-10. Can't have both.

Luxuries:

Bruce isn't really a luxury, since the team traded Josh Hamilton and their corner outfielders may leave after '08. Trading near-MLB ready pitchers like Bailey and Cueto doesn't help the win-now cause though. Six years of Bruce is a ton to surrender, but Bedard is the ace they need. A one-for-one offer should be seriously considered.

You could call guys like Hatteberg and Freel luxuries, but neither is going to net anything particularly useful.

[acredsfan]

Wow, he's kinda hung up on the Bedard for Bruce thing. Why would the Reds, who have made such a big emphasis on rebuilding the farm system, especially under Krivsky, make that move? It seems wrong to me, especially considering it wouldn't be a striaght up move, especially since the Orioles have been asking for the sky. He said they need 3 solid 30 start pitchers... Great, but Bedard only did that once. He's a health risk... He doesn't pitch 200 innings, EVER. Yeah, he's above average talent wise, but Bruce is too. Of course Bedard has shown he can utilize his talent at the major league level when his health allows him, but I don't want a guy who is going to become a chronic injury problem.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Bruce for Bedard.. don't think that will happen considering Baltimore wants pitching back as well. I said I would if it were me do a deal like that.. however I think I may stick my foot in my mouth. Bruce's defense and raw power are what this team is going to need for the next six years with the likely departures of Dunn and sadly; Junior. Bailey and Cueto are a lot to give up as well and toss in Votto and you are asking for the moon for Bedard. Not getting Bedard automatically knocks us out of contending? Since when? I think this team does need another starter and should look at the scrap heap left of Free Agents or look to make a trade.

I would like to see Adam Dunn for Brad Penny revisited.. maybe something like:

Dunn, Maloney, Roenicke, LeCure and Cash to the Dodgers
Brad Penny and Juan Pierre to Cincinnati

[hippie07]

Bruce for Bedard, nah... I'd give up a crazy amount for Bedard, but not Bruce...

Bruce for Kazmir... tougher...

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by acredsfan

Wow, he's kinda hung up on the Bedard for Bruce thing. Why would the Reds, who have made such a big emphasis on rebuilding the farm system, especially under Krivsky, make that move? It seems wrong to me, especially considering it wouldn't be a striaght up move, especially since the Orioles have been asking for the sky. He said they need 3 solid 30 start pitchers... Great, but Bedard only did that once. He's a health risk... He doesn't pitch 200 innings, EVER. Yeah, he's above average talent wise, but Bruce is too. Of course Bedard has shown he can utilize his talent at the major league level when his health allows him, but I don't want a guy who is going to become a chronic injury problem.

I don't think he's arguing that the Reds should trade Bruce for Bedard. I just think he's entertaining the idea because, from a "win now" perspective, landing Erik Bedard makes a lot of sense within the current Harang-Arroyo-Cordero window. The signing of Cordero is most likely to be a good investment for the first two years, when most project him to continue producing at his current level, anchoring down the late innings for the bullpen. Given that we've already acquired this pricey piece of the puzzle, we still probably need one more 30-inning starters to sniff the playoffs. And so, as the title of his piece suggests, Bedard would seem to be the best fit on the market for Cincinnati's needs.

I can't say I disagree with the premise of his argument. Landing Bedard would be a good idea and would probably make the Reds a playoff contender. Trading Bruce is very risky proposition... and yet doing so must be heavily considered given the investment in Cordero that is already on the books. Wayne and the FO have put themselves in an in-between position here... and I think you could argue it's time to fish instead of cutting expensive bait.

Then again, this topic has already been covered ad nauseum on other threads, so I'll stop here.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm amazed at how accurate an analysis this is. So often, when someone unaffiliated with the team does one of these write-ups, there will be one or two important details that are way off base. Granted, Tim Dierkes didn't say anything too bold, but at least he was very accurate.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I'm amazed at how accurate an analysis this is. So often, when someone unaffiliated with the team does one of these write-ups, there will be one or two important details that are way off base. Granted, Tim Dierkes didn't say anything too bold, but at least he was very accurate.

I agree. That's why I posted it in its own thread. It has something level-headed about it that lacks in our homerish discussions on this board.

[Chip R]

Would it make sense to acquire Michael Barrett for peanuts, to see if he can return to form?

I know someone on here whose initials are V.P. that would hate that pickup.

[harangatang]

Dunn and Griffey might be gone after the '08 season, and the Cordero signing was a win-now move. Jonathan Mayo wouldn't give up Bruce for Bedard, but that might be the only way the Reds make the playoffs this year. It would be a huge gamble, and depends on whether the team is trying to win right now or in 2009-10. Can't have both.

That's a great point. IMO you might as well go for it unless you are planning on resigning Dunn to a LTC. If it means only giving up only a POTENTIAL Larry Walker type player straight up, I'd get it done ASAP. While I don't necessarily think the Reds should empty their farm system completely but I think you got to go for it sometime. I'd take the playoffs in heartbeat over the POTENTIAL of having the next Larry Walker.