Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds

[*BaseClogger*]

Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors added the Reds to his Needs and Luxuries segment. I feel kinda cool because I requested this in the comments section yesterday.
link- http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/needs_...ies/index.html

Needs and Luxuries: Cincinnati Reds

Next up in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Reds. I realize the timing of this series wasn't ideal, doing a bunch and then tailing off. It's something I can improve next time around, but it still seems people would like to see the remaining teams reviewed. Anyway, here's how the Reds are set up:

C - Dave Ross
1B - Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Alex Gonzalez
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
LF - Adam Dunn
CF - Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper/Jay Bruce
RF - Ken Griffey Jr.

SP - Aaron Harang
SP - Bronson Arroyo
SP - Matt Belisle
SP - Homer Bailey
SP - Edinson Volquez/Johnny Cueto

Setup - David Weathers
Closer - Francisco Cordero

Needs:

The Reds had a middle of the pack offense in '07, same as '06. Last year the Reds had below league-average offense at catcher and third base. I think Encarnacion will be fine, so one need might be to upgrade over Ross behind the plate. Would it make sense to acquire Michael Barrett for peanuts, to see if he can return to form?

The Reds have enough depth in center field to stand pat. Even if Bruce needs a few more months in the minors, Freel can probably hold down the fort.

One could envision the '08 Reds cracking 800 runs if everyone stays healthy in '08, which would probably be top five in the league.

Not shockingly, the Reds' big need is on the run prevention side. Let's start with defense - they were third from the bottom in defensive efficiency in '07. Maybe a bit more of Gonzalez will help on that front, but the Reds are mostly locked in with their position players. They are not in a position to give up offense for defense.

The Reds allowed 853 runs in '07, 15th out of 16 NL teams. Their bullpen was awful and the rotation was below average. If the Reds push their runs allowed all the way down to 780, they're still probably just an 83 win team. Now, if they get the runs allowed down to 750, that's 86 wins. A dash of luck and they're in the playoffs. To allow 750 runs would be league average or maybe a touch better.

Cordero helps the Reds' previously terrible pen, but this rotation isn't good enough to get to 750 runs allowed. The Mets were at the 750 level last year, the Dodgers the year before. You generally need three solid 30-start guys, not two and a bunch of question marks. The Reds have a huge incentive to get Erik Bedard - with him, they're a playoff contender, without him they're not. They are a team on the fringe, and Jon Lieber or Brett Tomko won't push them over the edge. Add an ace, you can sniff 90 wins.

Dunn and Griffey might be gone after the '08 season, and the Cordero signing was a win-now move. Jonathan Mayo wouldn't give up Bruce for Bedard, but that might be the only way the Reds make the playoffs this year. It would be a huge gamble, and depends on whether the team is trying to win right now or in 2009-10. Can't have both.

Luxuries:

Bruce isn't really a luxury, since the team traded Josh Hamilton and their corner outfielders may leave after '08. Trading near-MLB ready pitchers like Bailey and Cueto doesn't help the win-now cause though. Six years of Bruce is a ton to surrender, but Bedard is the ace they need. A one-for-one offer should be seriously considered.

You could call guys like Hatteberg and Freel luxuries, but neither is going to net anything particularly useful.

[Stephenk29]

Interesting comments. I get the impression he's saying poop or get off the pot. Its pretty clear the Reds need another legit front line starter to make a serious push, but that's going to be expensive to do. If the worst case scenarios play out like he presented and Dunn and Griffey are done after '08, we're only going to digress again. Unless we get another front line starter we will not compete this year. As long as we can keep Dunn or at least acquire an OF/hitter of his caliber than we should be ok for '09 and on. However, that's only assuming that the pitching prospects pan out as well.

[AmarilloRed]

He really is hung up on the Bruce-for-Bedard thing. I think we need a solid #3 to make the playoffs, but it is not a requirement for the Reds to trade Bruce. We are going to need Bruce if both Dunn and Griffey are gone in 2009. It also is entirely possible that 83 wins wins the NL Central. Livan could qualify as a starter who will give you 30 starts and 200 innings, but I didn't see him mentioned. I also think the bullpen will be much better with Cordero and the young relievers we have.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

He really is hung up on the Bruce-for-Bedard thing. I think we need a solid #3 to make the playoffs, but it is not a requirement for the Reds to trade Bruce. We are going to need Bruce if both Dunn and Griffey are gone in 2009. It also is entirely possible that 83 wins wins the NL Central. Livan could qualify as a starter who will give you 30 starts and 200 innings, but I didn't see him mentioned. I also think the bullpen will be much better with Cordero and the young relievers we have.

He's a Cubs fan

[Bip Roberts]

Anyone with an obvious mind see 09 as being the year we are a better team.
08 is going to be a very interesting year. I cant see us being worse than 07 but unless we get a great year from Bailey or Volquez we arent going to be contending in 08.

Out of the teams in the central we are the obvious team that got THE MOST BETTER! god that hurt just typing that.

[redhawk61]

Yeah '09 is our year to be serious contenders. Let Volquez, Bailey, and Cueto (I guess Maloney) take their lumps this year. And who knows maybe 1,2, maybe even all suprise us and put up winning records. We then will have a better idea of our rotation in '09.

Once next offseason comes around with Griff, Stanton, prob Hatty, and maybe Dunn off the books we go out and sign a Carl Crawford or Milton Bradley type outfielder and a Derick Lowe or Ben Sheets type starter and you can look foward to a 2009 Central Championship and possible WS birth w/o losing any of the Big four. The only question we would have would be catcher

We could look at a 2009 lineup of (not batting order)
1b Votto
2b BP
3b EE
SS Keep
C Ross?/Tatum?/ Perez?
OF If Crawford signed
Crawford, Bruce, Dorn
OF is Bradley signed
Dorn, Bradley, Bruce

Rotation
Harang
Lowe/Sheets
Bailey/Arroyo if Bailey doesn't make it
Volquez/Arroyo if E-Vol doesn't make it
Cueto/Arroyo if Cueto doesn't make it

If all three are impressive we got some trading chips in Belise and Arroyo, could net us something useful like a catcher we migth need

[Newman4]

Hmmm, with all the talk of 2009 and Dunn possibly being gone, I still think that the Reds need to either poop or get off the pot with Dunn. If you're looking to 2009 and not going to sign Dunn long-term, why not trade him for some valuable piece for 2009?

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Newman4

Hmmm, with all the talk of 2009 and Dunn possibly being gone, I still think that the Reds need to either poop or get off the pot with Dunn. If you're looking to 2009 and not going to sign Dunn long-term, why not trade him for some valuable piece for 2009?

No trade clause?

[AmarilloRed]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

No trade clause?

Dunn can be traded; it is just more difficult. He has a limited no-trade clause. Starting in June, he can be traded to 10 teams of his choice. I expect if a LTC can not be worked out, the Reds would seek a trade to one of those 10 teams at the end of the trade deadline.

[Newman4]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

No trade clause?

Yes, but an extension to his liking would probably cancel that out.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

Dunn can be traded; it is just more difficult. He has a limited no-trade clause. Starting in June, he can be traded to 10 teams of his choice. I expect if a LTC can not be worked out, the Reds would seek a trade to one of those 10 teams at the end of the trade deadline.

Yes, the way I understood it he meant trade him now. Anywho, I don't think we will get much for him, considering we didn't like the return last summer when he was having a career year and cheaper... Might we be better off getting a draft pick?

[Nasty_Boy]

Originally Posted by Newman4

Yes, but an extension to his liking would probably cancel that out.

But if Dunn is extended, why not extend him in order to keep him. I'm sure that if he would agree to an extension unless it was an LTC. I do agree that a decision has to be made. Dunn is too valuable as a player or as a trading chip to just let him walk away via free agency. I would rather Dunn be signed for 3-5 years and be done with it.

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by Bip Roberts

Anyone with an obvious mind see 09 as being the year we are a better team.
08 is going to be a very interesting year. I cant see us being worse than 07 but unless we get a great year from Bailey or Volquez we arent going to be contending in 08.

Out of the teams in the central we are the obvious team that got THE MOST BETTER! god that hurt just typing that.

I pretty much agree. Bruce instead of Griffey in RF, then go get a defensive specialist for CF. I don't think it's unreasonable that two of Belisle/Bailey/Volquez/Cueto can be at least league average in 09 - just try and add one more #2/3 type. That's better defense, better pitching, and at least similar offense (with Votto/Bruce coming into their own). I think we're a year away.

[AmarilloRed]

Originally Posted by SMcGavin

I pretty much agree. Bruce instead of Griffey in RF, then go get a defensive specialist for CF. I don't think it's unreasonable that two of Belisle/Bailey/Volquez/Cueto can be at least league average in 09 - just try and add one more #2/3 type. That's better defense, better pitching, and at least similar offense (with Votto/Bruce coming into their own). I think we're a year away.

I hear Chris Dickerson plays outstanding defense. He could be the defensive specialist you're looking for in 2009.

[Bip Roberts]

Originally Posted by AmarilloRed

I hear Chris Dickerson plays outstanding defense. He could be the defensive specialist you're looking for in 2009.

Not unless they make a rule about DHing for CFers