Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by pahster

This is likely a function of Ortiz being a much better hitter than Dunn.

Depends on who you talk to, I guess. By looking at certain stats I think it would be up for debate as to how much better of a hiter Ortiz is.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by nate

I was thinking it was more a function of watching ESPN and seeing the Red Sox play more often than the Reds.

I've seen both guys play a lot.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by rotnoid

Or a function of Papi having guys on base in front of him when the game's on the line.

Why wouldn't Dunn ever encounter this situation?

[CaiGuy]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

My answer is:

1.) Scott Hatteberg
2.) Adam Dunn
3.) Ken Griffey Jr

Sure, you the last thing you want to do is make an out. But, it depends on the situation and context. If Juan Castro is on deck, I would rather have Dunn in the box than Hatteburg. If Griffey is on deck, then I like Hatteburg at the plate.

That is the problem with "clutch analysis." There are to many variables and different different kinds "clutch situations" to quantify it with one idea. People have different definitions of clutch and what a clutch player does in those situations.

Most think that Adam Dunn is not clutch. I do, however, because of his tendency not to make outs in those situations (.436 career OBP with RISP w/2 Outs), thus extending the window of opportunity.

I guess what I am am saying is that clutch is often based on peoples opinions, tastes, and personal definitions. It isn't a concrete thing and therefore cannot be measured.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by gonelong

Not trying to be argumentative here, just curious.

Now that we know Papi is some level of "more clutch" than Dunn ... what does anyone do with that? Does it have any more relevance than saying Dunn is "more tall" than Papi? For Joe-fan it might, and maybe thats enough. It exists, I see it, I don't care if you can measure it.

For an armchair GM or an actual GM, what does it mean to them? If you can't put a price/value on clutch than its pretty much useless to a lower payroll organization like the Reds. If you can't value it how do you know who to acquire or retain?

Lets say Papi commands $20M/yr and Dunn commands $15M/yr. How do I choose between them knowing Papi is "more clutch", but also more expensive?

Is it more valuable to be a clutch LF, a clutch SS, or a clutch closer? If I can only have 2 of the 3 clutch guys I want, which of the two do I choose?

GL

Finally! A well thought out post I can respond to.

I think you have some valid points and I think that your questions can only be answered by the people who actually have to answer them. What does the owner think? How about the GM?

Is the player a decent, all-around SS who doesn't fold when the heat is on? Then maybe a contender who needs a SS would pay a little extra for that guy. Is the closer a guy who has shown that he has struggled in a pennant race, kind of like Gagne last season? Why would a contender overpay for someone like him?

For the Reds, you are right. At this time, I don't think you need to go and get someone who makes there living from thriving in the postseason. They need people who can help them get there. Then they can worry about the postseason performance later.

[klw]

A more interesting clutch project would be to combine game threads with an evalutation of cluth situations. Those in the game thread could track "clutch" situations and performance in those situations. A runny tally could then be kept thoughout the year.

a partial thought on Dunn and clutch. As a power hitter he is expected to tie the score if he is up and the team is down a run. No such expectation for Juan Castro. The greater expetation leads to a greater sense of disappointment in the 7 times out of ten when he doesn't get a hit.

[pahster]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Depends on who you talk to, I guess. By looking at certain stats I think it would be up for debate as to how much better of a hiter Ortiz is.

Assuming you mean overall, it wouldn't be much of a debate. Ortiz has been a beast since he got to Boston. Dunn is very good, but Ortiz is even better. The latter has higher career OBP, SLG, OPS+, AVG, RC/27, etc. Of course, Ortiz's most productive years have been during his prime (which should be no surprise). Dunn is just now beginning his prime years, so there's a possibility that he outperforms Ortiz in the near future.

[rotnoid]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Why wouldn't Dunn ever encounter this situation?

I'm not saying he doesn't. My point, and I should have expanded more, is that the lineup around Ortiz, generally speaking, has been stronger than that around Dunn. It appears that Ortiz has more chance to be clutch based on where he hits in the lineup and who's before or after him. Manny goes a long way in getting Ortiz pitches he can do something with. The Reds haven't regularly had that back to back combination in recent years (though a healthy Griffey is pretty close).

So, my original statement was not an indictment on Dunn, but rather on the hitters around him, as well, as his sometimes unfortunate place in the lineup.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Finally! A well thought out post I can respond to.

I think you have some valid points and I think that your questions can only be answered by the people who actually have to answer them. What does the owner think? How about the GM?

Is the player a decent, all-around SS who doesn't fold when the heat is on? Then maybe a contender who needs a SS would pay a little extra for that guy. Is the closer a guy who has shown that he has struggled in a pennant race, kind of like Gagne last season? Why would a contender overpay for someone like him?

For the Reds, you are right. At this time, I don't think you need to go and get someone who makes there living from thriving in the postseason. They need people who can help them get there. Then they can worry about the postseason performance later.

Paying for intangibles is like buying a piece of high end electronics from the trunk of someone's car. Don't be surprised to find the box empty when you open it in your living room.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by pahster

Assuming you mean overall, it wouldn't be much of a debate. Ortiz has been a beast since he got to Boston. Dunn is very good, but Ortiz is even better. The latter has higher career OBP, SLG, OPS+, AVG, RC/27, etc. Of course, Ortiz's most productive years have been during his prime (which should be no surprise). Dunn is just now beginning his prime years, so there's a possibility that he outperforms Ortiz in the near future.

I don't know...the latest stat du jour that has been thrown at me is OPS+, which shows that there isn't a huge gap between the two over their careers.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Paying for intangibles is like buying a piece of high end electronics from the trunk of someone's car. Don't be surprised to find the box empty when you open it in your living room.

There's a difference between outright paying for intangibles and paying a little bit more for someone who has playoff experience when your team is a playoff contender.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

There's a difference between outright paying for intangibles and paying a little bit more for someone who has playoff experience when your team is a playoff contender.

There's also a difference between saying "a little bit" in a forum thread and writing a specific number on a check to a guy who otherwise doesn't seem worth that much.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by rotnoid

I'm not saying he doesn't. My point, and I should have expanded more, is that the lineup around Ortiz, generally speaking, has been stronger than that around Dunn. It appears that Ortiz has more chance to be clutch based on where he hits in the lineup and who's before or after him. Manny goes a long way in getting Ortiz pitches he can do something with. The Reds haven't regularly had that back to back combination in recent years (though a healthy Griffey is pretty close).

So, my original statement was not an indictment on Dunn, but rather on the hitters around him, as well, as his sometimes unfortunate place in the lineup.

I also think it has something to do with this:

Get into a discussion about Ortiz's clutchness and you'll hear numerous situations about how Papi won games with HRs, base hits, etc.

Ask some fans about Dunn's clutchness and you'll hear about how he walks in clutch situations to extend the inning.

Such a difference.

[Highlifeman21]

Leave it to the SunDeck to get our ORG panties in a twist...

I'm almost convinced clutch doesn't exist, except for the obvious hitters you don't want up in a clutch situation. Juan Castro, David Ross, Alex Gonzalez, Chris Dickerson, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper. All examples of guys that I don't want up in a clutch situation. Anyone else, I can deal with, in hopes of a positive outcome.

[CaiGuy]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I also think it has something to do with this:

Get into a discussion about Ortiz's clutchness and you'll hear numerous situations about how Papi won games with HRs, base hits, etc.

Ask some fans about Dunn's clutchness and you'll hear about how he walks in clutch situations to extend the inning.

Such a difference.

Perhaps Ortiz has more "clutchness" (i like that word) than Dunn, but that doesn't mean that I want to throw stuff at the TV when Dunn steps in to hit.

Maybe there are different levels of clutch. Both Adam and Ortiz could be considered clutch, but to different degrees.