Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project

[pahster]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I don't know...the latest stat du jour that has been thrown at me is OPS+, which shows that there isn't a huge gap between the two over their careers.

9 points of OPS+ really isn't all that trivial. Ortiz hasn't had an OPS+ below 144 since he got to Boston, which, coincidentally, is where he has gained notoriety for being clutch. He's really turned it on after some mostly mediocre years in Minnesotta.

Here is a breif explanation of how OPS+ works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base...S_.28OPS.2B.29

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by wheels

I am so glad there have been less than ten replies to this thread.

Total waste of time.

You had to mock them didn't you?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by CaiGuy

Perhaps Ortiz has more "clutchness" (i like that word) than Dunn, but that doesn't mean that I want to throw stuff at the TV when Dunn steps in to hit.

Maybe there are different levels of clutch. Both Adam and Ortiz could be considered clutch, but to different degrees.

Depends on your expectations for when Dunn gets up. If you expect him to not make an out, then he does a good job. If you expect him to get a hit then you're probably gonna be disappointed.

[BCubb2003]

I think there'd have to be at least two sliding scales, one for the situation and one for the performance. On situation, the closer the score the more points, the later in the game, the more points. On performance, not making an out gets you a point. Getting the job done yourself gets you more points.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by pahster

9 points of OPS+ really isn't all that trivial. Ortiz hasn't had an OPS+ below 144 since he got to Boston, which, coincidentally, is where he has gained notoriety for being clutch. He's really turned it on after some mostly mediocre years in Minnesotta.

Here is a breif explanation of how OPS+ works: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base...S_.28OPS.2B.29

Thanks.

If 9 points equals "much better hitter", than Carlos Delgado is a much better hitter than Clemente, Boggs and Dunn?

[pahster]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Thanks.

If 9 points equals "much better hitter", than Carlos Delgado is a much better hitter than Clemente, Boggs and Dunn?

Well, my "much better hitter" comment is really aimed at Ortiz compared to Dunn since the former has been in Boston. Career-wise, Ortiz has an edge but they are similar. OPS+ is good metric in that it allows you to compare OPSes among players independant of park factors. OPS itself is flawed, though, because (1) it counts hits twice and (2) it weighs OBP and SLG equally. It's not a bad metric, it's just not as accurate as many assume.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by pahster

Well, my "much better hitter" comment is really aimed at Ortiz compared to Dunn since the former has been in Boston. Career-wise, Ortiz has an edge but they are similar. OPS+ is good metric in that it allows you to compare OPSes among players independant of park factors. OPS itself is flawed, though, because (1) it counts hits twice and (2) it weighs OBP and SLG equally. It's not a bad metric, it's just not as accurate as many assume.

I agree...I think a lot of stats are flawed.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

You had to mock them didn't you?

Someone had to. You were late to the dance.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Depends on your expectations for when Dunn gets up. If you expect him to not make an out, then he does a good job. If you expect him to get a hit then you're probably gonna be disappointed.

And that's the rub right there. Tie game, bases loaded and Dunn walks, the ballgame's over and the Reds win. His batting average doesn't increase overall or with RISP but he did drive in a run. Same thing for those scrappy sac flies. And sometimes extending an inning is as important as that big hit.

"Clutch" is a nebulous thing. Wasn't Eric Davis' first inning HR in the 1990 World Series clutch? Nobody was on at the time but it set the tone for the entire Series.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Chip R

And that's the rub right there. Tie game, bases loaded and Dunn walks, the ballgame's over and the Reds win. His batting average doesn't increase overall or with RISP but he did drive in a run. Same thing for those scrappy sac flies. And sometimes extending an inning is as important as that big hit.

"Clutch" is a nebulous thing. Wasn't Eric Davis' first inning HR in the 1990 World Series clutch? Nobody was on at the time but it set the tone for the entire Series.

I'm with you 100%. Sure ED's bomb was clutch. It all depends on the situation. That's why I think clutch is very hard to quantify. Watching someone's performance on a day to day basis is a better way to determine clutchness. That or watching Sportscenter.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

There's a difference between outright paying for intangibles and paying a little bit more for someone who has playoff experience when your team is a playoff contender.

Not really.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Not really.

OK.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Chip R

And that's the rub right there. Tie game, bases loaded and Dunn walks, the ballgame's over and the Reds win. His batting average doesn't increase overall or with RISP but he did drive in a run. Same thing for those scrappy sac flies. And sometimes extending an inning is as important as that big hit.

"Clutch" is a nebulous thing. Wasn't Eric Davis' first inning HR in the 1990 World Series clutch? Nobody was on at the time but it set the tone for the entire Series.

Exactly. My take is that certain abilities are more valuable in certain situations. However, certain skills are more broadly applicable. The ability to avoid making outs and the ability to hit the ball for power are the two that are most often useful. The situations that can be described as clutch vary incredibly so as to make use a wide variety of skills. Sometimes a stolen base is clutch. Sometimes bat control is clutch. Sometimes homers are clutch. Sometimes walks are clutch. Sometimes being in the right place in the field is clutch. Bottom line, give me the better player as measured by how he performs across the board and I'll take my chances in the wide variety of "clutch" situations.

[jojo]

Dunn:
Bases empty OPS= .883
RISP OPS= .884
Men-On OPS= .913

I nominate Dunn for Mr. Anti-Clutch. Anyone second the motion?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by jojo

Dunn:
Bases empty OPS= .883
RISP OPS= .884
Men-On OPS= .913

I nominate Dunn for Mr. Anti-Clutch. Anyone second the motion?

If walking is clutch, then consider Dunn as Miles Davis.