Cubs Sign Jon Lieber

[hippie07]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I think Wayne gave up on trying to win the division when he found out that he couldn't snatch Haren or Bedard for Homer.

He changed his strategy and made the Hamilton trade in hopes of maybe trying to win in 2009.

I don't think Wayne's given up the season at all .... he's reportedly still in the Bedard race.. maybe he truly believes that Bailey or Volquez will perform at a #3 level this year... I don't know, but I think the Hamilton for Volquez deal was more of a "win now" move than an "I give up" move.... because in 2009 Bailey and Cueto should be real contributors and we'd be better off having Hamilton in the 08 lineup, but Volquez should be a bigger contributor in 08 than would Cueto (and possibly Bailey), so the Hamilton trade was a move to improve the 08 team (not necessarily the 09 team).

[hippie07]

.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

If you have the money, who cares about efficiency? While I'm certainly keen on staying fiscally responsible, with the sport awash in cash, efficiency is a secondary consideration to talent.

In terms of their "average" status. Their pythag of 87 wins puts them just 4 wins behind the Rockies, who were first in the NL with 91. The average NL team had 80 pythag wins. The cubs are right there with the NL elite and this move only helps.

Granted, the Cubs don't need to be as salary-efficient as, say, the Reds, but at some point, at their current pace, the Cubs will have to worry about salary efficiency. I'm not necessarily saying the Cubs need to be more efficient with their money--it's more about roster space. It's kind of like the 2004 Yankees, who were paying a dozen different pitchers a minimum of nearly two million dollars. What was ridiculous was that the Yankees still had a below average pitching staff. If they wanted to add an impact pitcher, they either would've needed to carry 13 pitchers or pay millions of dollars to one of their pitchers to pitch somewhere else. The Cubs aren't at that point yet, but they're rapidly approaching it. I doubt they'll ever get to that point--I'm just saying that their decisions in the past two off-seasons are reminiscent of the Yankees' in recent years.

And obviously, I was being subjective when I said the Cubs were an average NL team in 2007, but I think the Cubs' fortunate pythag record was largely in part due to A.) half the games being against NL Central opponents and B.) Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis having fluke years.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Granted, the Cubs don't need to be as salary-efficient as, say, the Reds, but at some point, at their current pace, the Cubs will have to worry about salary efficiency. I'm not necessarily saying the Cubs need to be more efficient with their money--it's more about roster space. It's kind of like the 2004 Yankees, who were paying a dozen different pitchers a minimum of nearly two million dollars. What was ridiculous was that the Yankees still had a below average pitching staff. If they wanted to add an impact pitcher, they either would've needed to carry 13 pitchers or pay millions of dollars to one of their pitchers to pitch somewhere else. The Cubs aren't at that point yet, but they're rapidly approaching it. I doubt they'll ever get to that point--I'm just saying that their decisions in the past two off-seasons are reminiscent of the Yankees' in recent years.

And obviously, I was being subjective when I said the Cubs were an average NL team in 2007, but I think the Cubs' fortunate pythag record was largely in part due to A.) half the games being against NL Central opponents and B.) Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis having fluke years.

Agreed on the cash issue. Teams can only go so long of taking gamble after gamble, throwing money around like its monopoly money, before they are sitting there with a bad team and no rainy day fund or willingness to dump more money into risky player deals to correct the problem. Even the Yankees seem to be at the point where they are stopping the nonsense of trying to fix each and every problem with a "sold to the highest bidder" mentality. No matter how big the budget, eventually wasting money on bad contracts will come to roost.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Jpup

well, if that was the case, it was a bad decision unless Adam Dunn is signed past 2008. If he isn't, Josh Hamilton would have been a very good replacement IMO.

I don't disagree with that.
Wayne loves his pitching prospects though. I think that played a big part in the Hamilton trade.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by hippie07

I don't think Wayne's given up the season at all .... he's reportedly still in the Bedard race.. maybe he truly believes that Bailey or Volquez will perform at a #3 level this year... I don't know, but I think the Hamilton for Volquez deal was more of a "win now" move than an "I give up" move.... because in 2009 Bailey and Cueto should be real contributors and we'd be better off having Hamilton in the 08 lineup, but Volquez should be a bigger contributor in 08 than would Cueto (and possibly Bailey), so the Hamilton trade was a move to improve the 08 team (not necessarily the 09 team).

Sure, no team truly gives up.
I'm sure the Pirates are crossing their fingers and hoping for the best too.

I just see the Hamilton trade as a clear sign that Wayne decided he just wasn't going to get it done this year.

Again, perhaps when he brought Dusty and Cordero on board, he was looking at 2009 or 2010, and we just got overly excited.

IMO, we are out of the Bedard race. From what we read, Baltimore wants 3-4 prospects, and Wayne is only willing to give up one. That pretty much takes us out of it.

Some other team will be able to top our offer of Homer easily (or whichever one prospect we are willing to deal).

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Sure, no team truly gives up.
I'm sure the Pirates are crossing their fingers and hoping for the best too.

I just see the Hamilton trade as a clear sign that Wayne decided he just wasn't going to get it done this year.

Again, perhaps when he brought Dusty and Cordero on board, he was looking at 2009 or 2010, and we just got overly excited.

IMO, we are out of the Bedard race. From what we read, Baltimore wants 3-4 prospects, and Wayne is only willing to give up one. That pretty much takes us out of it.

Some other team will be able to top our offer of Homer easily (or whichever one prospect we are willing to deal).

I'm not sure that you can condense an organization who needs to improve in a large measure into reading any single move into "we're going for it," "we're not going for it," dichotomy.

It seems to me that a team that is in the Reds' state is correctly applying the "how do you eat an elephant" strategy, which is what signing your manager, filling a very important vacant closer slot, and bringing a potential major league ready starting arm on board in a risk management move.

After each move, they should be able to say, "ok, that move made us better in an area we needed to get better and what we lost is replaceable and/or available."

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Sure, no team truly gives up.
I'm sure the Pirates are crossing their fingers and hoping for the best too.

I just see the Hamilton trade as a clear sign that Wayne decided he just wasn't going to get it done this year.

Again, perhaps when he brought Dusty and Cordero on board, he was looking at 2009 or 2010, and we just got overly excited.

IMO, we are out of the Bedard race. From what we read, Baltimore wants 3-4 prospects, and Wayne is only willing to give up one. That pretty much takes us out of it.

Some other team will be able to top our offer of Homer easily (or whichever one prospect we are willing to deal).

I see the Hamilton/Volzquez trade as a way to still compete this year, but really look strong heading forward from that point rather than a realization that we aren't getting it done this year.

IMO, everyone is out of the Bedard race until the Orioles figure out their asking price is too much.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I see the Hamilton/Volzquez trade as a way to still compete this year, but really look strong heading forward from that point rather than a realization that we aren't getting it done this year.

I hope you're right, I see a 2 pitch guy in Volzquez that struggled and lost some luster. I see it as a huge gamble. Let's hope it pays off.