Will Drew Stubbs be a bust?

[OnBaseMachine]

While I would agree that Stubbs has been a disappointment this far in his career, I think it's unfair to call him a bust at this point. He's only 23 years old and has just 707 professional atbats. He still has time to put it together and live up to his billing. As someone else mentioned, I don't think you can really classify him a bust until he's about 26 or 27 and still struggling.

[GoReds33]

I have gotta say, character wise he's one of the nicest men I've ever met. I walked right up to him, and we talked for a minute or two while he signed a couple baseballs for me. I really didn't expect him to talk to me, I just expected him to give them back and walk away. I have to say that the Reds have really drafted some character guys... Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, etc.

[Z-Fly]

Originally Posted by GoReds33

I have gotta say, character wise he's one of the nicest men I've ever met. I walked right up to him, and we talked for a minute or two while he signed a couple baseballs for me. I really didn't expect him to talk to me, I just expected him to give them back and walk away. I have to say that the Reds have really drafted some character guys... Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, etc.

I've seen him twice, once in dayton and once at the whiffel ball homerun durby. I know this means nothing at all, but both times the guy couldn't hit for beans.

[flyer85]

Stubbs needs to have an good year. He has been a disappointment but he still has time, especially with his athleticism.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm hoping that he can pull it together because with his athleticism and talent, he could be a fun one to watch. It would be huge for this organization if he could develop into a Mike Cameron type player because that would allow the Reds to shift Bruce to RF and give the Reds two great defensive outfielders.

[Will M]

Originally Posted by flyer85

Stubbs needs to have an good year. He has been a disappointment but he still has time, especially with his athleticism.

IMO it is a make or break year for Stubbs. He needs to hit WELL at A+ then move up & show he can hit in AA.

[TRF]

Why after having 3 more years experience than a guy like Bruce is he raw? I don't expect him to be Jay Bruce, I just think the raw label after being coached at the big 12 level for 3 years, is an excuse. why is he raw compared to Dorn, a 32nd round pick?

I think he can overcome his disappointing performance and become a usefull MLB player, but I see his future as a 4th OF.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Why after having 3 more years experience than a guy like Bruce is he raw? I don't expect him to be Jay Bruce, I just think the raw label after being coached at the big 12 level for 3 years, is an excuse. why is he raw compared to Dorn, a 32nd round pick?

I think he can overcome his disappointing performance and become a usefull MLB player, but I see his future as a 4th OF.

Because every player is not the same? Why is it that Griffey was ready to be above average in the majors at 19 but hardly anyone else was? Because players grow at different paces.

[TRF]

I give up. your view is completely myopic. Stubbs is a 1st rd, top ten pick that had the benefit of 3 years of big 12 coaching at one of the better college baseball schools in the country, and the dude couldn't OPS .800 in A ball. or rookie ball for that matter. Yet Dorn looks to be in AAA at some point this year and he was a 32nd round pick. Dorn is over achieving, but labeling Stubbs a disappointment right now is being kind. He's Chris Dickerson minus the power. MAYBE he becomes more than that, but a college bat drafted in the top ten round SHOULD be in AA at this point at least.

doug, seriously, it's ok to rag on these guys when they don't live up to expectations. It's ok to point out that Bailey has awful BB rates in the minor leagues, and that he needs to overcome that. It really is ok to look at results and not just potential.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

While I would agree that Stubbs has been a disappointment this far in his career, I think it's unfair to call him a bust at this point. He's only 23 years old and has just 707 professional atbats. He still has time to put it together and live up to his billing. As someone else mentioned, I don't think you can really classify him a bust until he's about 26 or 27 and still struggling.

26 or 27? The guy is a top 10 pick. Got millions of dollars guaranteed. Waiting until he is 26 or 27 to assess him is ridiculous. 26-27 and you start to get compared to Denorfia, Brady Clark, etc.

Top 10 drafted college players should be in the pros within 2-3 years. If not, it would be fair to start the bust label. Even if Stubbs were to figure it out and start mattering when he is 27, that is still way too long. If he was a 10th rounder, then fine.

Top 10 picks have different timetables than everyone else.

[Highlifeman21]

Great points TRF and edabbs44.

Come 2009, we'll need another OF. There's a chance we may need 2 if the Reds let Dunn walk.

Let me be clear when I say this.

Drew Stubbs won't be a solution for 2009.

I wish he would, but he won't. I want to root for the kid b/c he's a Red, but he was a waste of a 1st Round Draft Pick, which is organizationally criminal, in my book.

We all know that Stubbs played in the Big 12 and had plenty of success, and being a high 1st Round Draft Pick he absolutely without a shadow of a doubt should be held to a higher standard of development than other prospects.

IMO, at this point of Stubbs career, if he's not ready to be a 4th OF for the Reds in 2009, then he's a complete bust. Maybe it is the curse of the metal bat, but dropping 200 points of OPS from college to the minors is a ridiculously huge flag that can't be dismissed with "his toe was hurt..." I hope in 2008 he continues how he ended 2007, but I don't want to make any big wagers that he will.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

I give up. your view is completely myopic. Stubbs is a 1st rd, top ten pick that had the benefit of 3 years of big 12 coaching at one of the better college baseball schools in the country, and the dude couldn't OPS .800 in A ball. or rookie ball for that matter. Yet Dorn looks to be in AAA at some point this year and he was a 32nd round pick. Dorn is over achieving, but labeling Stubbs a disappointment right now is being kind. He's Chris Dickerson minus the power. MAYBE he becomes more than that, but a college bat drafted in the top ten round SHOULD be in AA at this point at least.

You make it sound like Texas pounds out hitters left and right. The only hitter worth a crap to ever come out of that school is Adam Dunn, and he didn't even play baseball there. Has Stubbs not lived up to his Top 10 potential to this point? No, he hasn't. On the flip side, its been 1 season of full season baseball and the guy played while injured bad enough that he needed surgery to have it repaired. Top it off with the big improvements he made as the season went along (.917 OPS in the second half). You keep talking about these time lines that Stubbs should be following, but those are based off of what you believe, not exactly what the Reds have him tapped for. Regardless, its still very foolish to right someone off as a bust when over their last 250 plate appearances they had a .900 OPS.

doug, seriously, it's ok to rag on these guys when they don't live up to expectations. It's ok to point out that Bailey has awful BB rates in the minor leagues, and that he needs to overcome that. It really is ok to look at results and not just potential.

Firstly, its not really ok to 'rag' on them and second not living up to expectations is one thing, not giving someone any amount of time to do so is a completely different thing.

Without getting into Bailey too much, its all about perspective. Yeah, Bailey had horrible walk rates in Dayton. He also improved them greatly the next season, but people continuously brought up his career rates as if what he did in Dayton should be on line with what he did in Sarasota or Chattanooga, when it obviously shouldn't be.

I apply the same thing to Stubbs. He struggled while injured in Billings. He struggled while injured for the first half in Dayton. Then in the second half, while still injured he hit the living crap out of the baseball. To me, what have you done for me lately is a whole lot more important than what you did for me long before that. Prospects are a completely different animal. They are still learning to play the game and making big adjustments to their games. The same rules that apply to major leaguers don't apply to minor leaguers. If Drew Stubbs were a 27 year old in the majors and kept having .750-.780 OPS seasons (which btw for a CF of his caliber would make him one of the best at his position) but put up a .900 OPS in the second half of the season, then I wouldn't think 'oh, he is on the verge of breaking out' but when we are talking about a guy that was 22 years old, when someone does it, it warrants noting and keeping a big close eye on.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

IMO, at this point of Stubbs career, if he's not ready to be a 4th OF for the Reds in 2009, then he's a complete bust. Maybe it is the curse of the metal bat, but dropping 200 points of OPS from college to the minors is a ridiculously huge flag that can't be dismissed with "his toe was hurt..." I hope in 2008 he continues how he ended 2007, but I don't want to make any big wagers that he will.

So if he isn't ready for the majors by March 2009, no matter what he does from that point forward, he is a bust? That seems like poor logic.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So if he isn't ready for the majors by March 2009, no matter what he does from that point forward, he is a bust? That seems like poor logic.

He would need to be a very productive player from that point forward to not be a bust.

Plus, that means he would have to blow through 3 levels in 1-2 years. Absolutely can happen, but a little difficult to imagine when he only has 2-3 solid months under his belt in Low A playing against competition without his pedigree.

Top 10 guys have much higher standards to live up to.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So if he isn't ready for the majors by March 2009, no matter what he does from that point forward, he is a bust? That seems like poor logic.

Just b/c you don't agree with the logic doesn't make it poor logic.

Stubbs was drafted to be in the Reds' OF plans for 2009. He won't be. He probably won't even be in 2010. Given his current rate of development, we're looking at 2011 as a best case scenario. By that time, we'll be at the end of the "window to win", which is largely contingent on the contracts of Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, and Phillips (and no, not Andy). Cordero and Phillips are the only two currently locked up through 2012. I don't think anyone would argue that those 4 players won't continue to play a key role in if the Reds win or not.

If Stubbs is ready for 2011, then he's clearly late to the party. We need him to be ready for 2009, and there's a snowball's chance in hell of that happening. Unfortunately he does have more expecation and pressure as being a high 1st Round Pick, but it comes with the territory.

No one liked the pick at he time, you included doug, and it's obviously turned out to be a bad pick.

In a business and economcial stance, Drew Stubbs is deadweight loss, and we must treat him accordingly.