Tough decisions looming for Reds

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

In that scenario, you're right. The Reds still wouldn't have a lefty in the pen who could be counted on to do anything but throw left-handed. As expected, the offer of a rotation slot for Affeldt was nothing more than window dressing. Nothing "serious" about his chance to make the rotation other than the stupid amount of dollars he's going to be paid in order to serve as a LOOGY. 3M. Go figure.
.

I think the Fogg signing changed the Reds' plans. At the time Affedlt was signed, I think he was a lock for the rotation.

Not saying that it was great planning by Wayne by any means, but at least we have a plan B in case one of the young starters can't handle it.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I disagree. They've got to pick the guy they think will pitch better, regardless of age. Bray might be able to get better quality development time at AAA.

And that guy is Bill Bray. Kent Mercker's stuff is no where near where it was before. Putting him on the team is just asking for a disaster.

[lollipopcurve]

Nothing "serious" about his chance to make the rotation other than the stupid amount of dollars he's going to be paid in order to serve as a LOOGY. 3M. Go figure.

I guess that's why he got several starts. If he'd pitched well, he'd still be in the rotation.

3 million for a lefty reliever was the going rate. See JC Romero.

[princeton]

Reds'll need to decide if trade value later in the season might outweigh benefit to current team

they'll make same judgement on another LHPer, Capellan. In that case, it won't be his trade value, but rather his roster value in the year 2010 or 2011 (boy that sounds like a long time from now, doesn't it?)

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I disagree. They've got to pick the guy they think will pitch better, regardless of age. Bray might be able to get better quality development time at AAA.

Another point to consider. At some point, the Reds might actually wise up and give Stanton the boot. At that point, it will be nice to have the extra depth that Mercker provides (Bray can slip into Stanton's slot). If Mercker doesn't make the opening day roster, he's probably gone from baseball. In constrast, Bray can be stashed.

In the grand scheme of things, I don't think picking Mercker over Bray is going to cost any games. Given that Bray is recovering from a shoulder injury, it might also be wise to send him to AAA to manage his workload. No sense in pushing him too hard as he's recovering (the Reds often make that mistake). Let's do what's best for him for the long term.

My thoughts exactly. It won't hurt to have Bray go to AAA, or even start the year on the DL. I don't put much stock in spring training appearances, good or bad - especially for pitchers during this dead arm period. No question Bray has had a good spring, but so has Mercker. Bray is also a couple weeks behind everyone else and hasn't hit his dead arm period yet. I'd rather he hit it at at AAA or extended spring training. By May 1st, Castellini will either be tired enough of Stanton's act to eat the contract, or Stanton may do well enough to flip in a trade.

[OnBaseMachine]

Mike Stanton has had a dead arm for two years now.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I guess that's why he got several starts. If he'd pitched well, he'd still be in the rotation.

Even Homer Bailey, the owner of an 8.44 ERA on March 15th and who hasn't had a truly good start yet, is still starting games. Affeldt didn't get past March 13th as a potential rotation piece while "competing" with Belisle, Fogg, and three unproven kids. If you're actually being given a legitimate shot at earning a rotaton slot, a couple of bad starts by March 13th isn't going to knock you out of that particular race. Affeldt is in the pen now because he was never a legitimate option for the rotation.

3 million for a lefty reliever was the going rate. See JC Romero.

I don't mind paying the "going rate". It's just that I'd rather the Reds paid the "going rate" for only pitchers who really project to be good at their jobs.

[OnBaseMachine]

One thing I like about Baker - he's a straight shooter. He basically says Mike Stanton shouldn't be on the team.

A question of cash?

By Hal McCoy | Tuesday, March 25, 2008, 10:58 AM

Dusty Baker made both an interesting and telling comment Tuesday morning in the visitor’s clubhouse at Clearwater’s Bright House Field.

The question was the final determination of the bullpen, who goes and who stays. As candid as always, Baker said, “I know it is not my money, but I hope money isn’t a factor in the final choices. I know the team wants to stay in a budget, but…”

But, indeed.

The reference obviously was to lefthanded relief pitcher Mike Stanton, who wasn’t very good last year and has been mediocre, at best, this spring. But he has a $3 million guaranteed contract with a $500,000 buyout. If the Reds want him to go away (he already cleared waivers, nobody claimed him) and they can’t trade him, it will cost them $3.5 million to show the fans they REALLY want to win this year.

Baker’s bullpen of lefthanders would be Jeremy Affeldt, Bill Bray and Kent Mercker. If ownership says, “Keep Stanton,” then Bray has options and might land in Louisville. Or they could jettison Mercker, a situational pitcher Baker likes.

In six appearances, Stanton has given up three runs, four hits, two walks and struck out one.

Affelt hasn’t been that good, either, but Baker stuck up for him.

“I’m a bit concerned about him after he gave it up Monday (two runs, two hits and a walk in one inning, ballooning his spring ERA to 12.51). But he’s a guy you have to consider as having a good track record. Maybe he is throwing too many strikes. He needs to throw quality strikes and keep it as simple as possible. He is a guy who analyzes things too much and he wears his problems all over his face. He cares big-time and you’d rather have that than a guy who doesn’t care.”

The roster remains too large, but there was one cut made Tuesday. Outfielder Jerry Gil was re-assigned to minor-league camp.

Gil most likely will end up at Class AAA Louisville with Jay Bruce and Chris Dickerson and Baker said, “They are going to have some oufield in Louisville, man. Boy. that potential outfield they have. Whew. Wow. Some good arms, good speed. Probably one of the best around.”

I was tempted to say it, but bit my tongue when I wanted to say, “If you kept Bruce, you might have a much better outfield in Cincinnati.”

Call me Chicken Little.

Of Gil, Baker said, “He needs to play. He didn’t play at all last year (injury) and he is going to be a good player. He realizes he needs some at-bat and needs to play. In fact, he is going to be a very good player. He just needs to stay away from injuries because he has had some unfortunate things happen to him.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/con...incinnatireds/

[TRF]

I'd put Burton in L'ville IF I thought I could stash Capellan. He needs to really show something though. If not I try to work a trade. If neither option is available, I send him back and shrug, oh well.

Burton may have to go to AAA anyway. He's been flat awful and he has options. Bray absolutely has to make the team and pitch well. Majewski... oy. can he just be let go now? really Wayne, he's not good at all.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

One thing I like about Baker - he's a straight shooter. He basically says Mike Stanton shouldn't be on the team.

He could be referring to Affeldt as well.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

In that scenario, you're right. The Reds still wouldn't have a lefty in the pen who could be counted on to do anything but throw left-handed. As expected, the offer of a rotation slot for Affeldt was nothing more than window dressing. Nothing "serious" about his chance to make the rotation other than the stupid amount of dollars he's going to be paid in order to serve as a LOOGY. 3M. Go figure.

It's a pen with a bunch of guys who'll again likely struggle to get a lead to their Closer. That amazes me because Krivsky and Co. have thrown a ton of cash out and talent resources at the pen but they don't currently have a single reliever other than Cordero who could be considered a "lock" to help in 2008. That bullpen could easily be just as bad as anything the Reds have run out there over the past few seasons. Should it start out in the configuration you suggest, I'll be flinching after pretty much each pitch.

I've been saying similar stuff for a long time. It's almost comical how much time, enery and money has been put into this bullpen in the past 2 years. And it still is subpar, at best.

[blumj]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I've been saying similar stuff for a long time. It's almost comical how much time, enery and money has been put into this bullpen in the past 2 years. And it still is subpar, at best.

That's because bullpens are crapshoots. You usually don't improve them as much by changing the guys in it as you do from not needing them to pitch as many innings. IOW, spend the time and energy to improve the starting pitching and defense and the pen will be more likely to follow.

[gm]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

If Mercker doesn't make the opening day roster, he's probably gone from baseball.

Here's another scenario. Mercker gets cut, keeps himself in reasonable shape then rejoins the team this summer (call it the "Clemens option") Not outside the realm of possiblity, IMO

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Mike Stanton has had a dead arm for two years now.

The Reds are going to bank on him reclaiming some sort of past glory, just like they are with Mercker.

Hmm..disaster.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Dusty Baker made both an interesting and telling comment Tuesday morning in the visitor’s clubhouse at Clearwater’s Bright House Field.

The question was the final determination of the bullpen, who goes and who stays. As candid as always, Baker said, “I know it is not my money, but I hope money isn’t a factor in the final choices. I know the team wants to stay in a budget, but…”

But, indeed.

The reference obviously was to lefthanded relief pitcher Mike Stanton, who wasn’t very good last year and has been mediocre, at best, this spring. But he has a $3 million guaranteed contract with a $500,000 buyout. If the Reds want him to go away (he already cleared waivers, nobody claimed him) and they can’t trade him, it will cost them $3.5 million to show the fans they REALLY want to win this year.

That Dusty fella might be alright indeed if he can persuade this team to dump Stanton into the flooded Ohio.