Article on Bochy's managing

[flyer85]

from Sheehan at BP

Bruce Bochy Screws Up

by Joe Sheehan

The San Francisco Giants have a host of problems that could lead them to a franchise record for losses (previous mark: 100, set in 1985) this year. They cannot score, their aging defense will allow many extra hits, and outside of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, they don’t have the pitching to work around these issues.

What we learned last night is that they aren’t going to win many games from the dugout, either. Bruce Bochy, whose tactical failings were a common complaint of Padres fans during his time in San Diego, made the kind of small move–the wrong one–that shows a lack of understanding of how to manage your 25 pieces in a way that gives your team the best chance to win a baseball game.

Let me explain. Last night, the Giants had a 2-1 lead over the Padres headed into the ninth inning. Protecting the lead, Bochy put Rajai Davis into left field for Dan Ortmeier, batting seventh, to improve his defense. That’s not the problem. The Padres, thanks to a great at-bat by Tony Clark that ended in a single, tied the game. In the bottom of the ninth, Jose Castillo roped a two-out, bases-empty double, giving Bochy the opportunity to make a huge mistake. With Davis due up and Brian Bocock on deck, Bochy sent Fred Lewis up to hit for Davis. Cringing yet? Bud Black couldn’t put four fingers up fast enough, sending Lewis down to first and bringing Bocock to the plate against Heath Bell. Five pitches later, the game headed to extra innings.

Say what you want about stat geeks and table-game dorks, but there’s not a halfway decent Strat player on Earth who would have wasted a player in that situation. Bochy went from Rajai Davis against Heath Bell needing a single to Brian Bocock against Heath Bell needing a single, and wasted a player for the privilege. Davis is nothing special, but he’s a damn sight better than Bocock, whose offensive approach is a bit like Lance Blankenship’s without all the contact and power. Sending up Lewis for Davis was a ridiculous decision, because there was no way in creation Lewis was going to be allowed to bat, and there was no cost at all to walking him. The run was meaningless, and in fact, putting Lewis on created forces at second and third, taking some pressure off of the defense. Bochy flat-out wasted a player and pushed his worst hitter into the highest-leverage situation of the game.

Given that Davis is a much better hitter than Bocock, although both are righthanded, there’s some small chance that Black would have had Bell pitch around Davis anyway. Had that happened, Bochy would have had Lewis available to hit for Bocock (I note that this would have forced Eugenio Velez or Rich Aurilia to shortstop in any extra innings). Even if Davis had made the out to end the inning, Bochy would have still had a good defensive left fielder in the game and Lewis on the bench. Instead, he burned Lewis, then because he wanted to avoid having the pitcher bat third in the ninth inning, he burned Clay Timpner, putting him in the game in left field so that Brad Hennessey could bat in the seven spot.

Sum it up: Bochy cost himself two players, Davis and Lewis, for the benefit of having an inferior hitter bat in a game-critical situation, and made his defense worse in extra innings to boot. He gave Black an easy out–walking the best hitter Bochy had left–and a clear path out of the inning through the worst hitter on the roster. That’s terrible. I mean, that’s just this side of managing to lose. For Bochy to send up Lewis in that situation, and not be able to see what that would create, is incompetence. We can talk about managers being leaders of men, and barriers between the team and the front office, and liaisons with the media, but if you can’t avoid self-destructing in the ninth inning of a tied game, none of that other stuff matters.

You may think this is a small thing I’m blowing up into a big one, 500 words on a decision that won’t mean much in the big picture. However, if you make a decision like Bochy’s once every two weeks, that’s 13 games you’re actively hurting your team in. I submit that managers across baseball make decisions like this–inexplicable tactical decisions that hurt their teams–a hell of a lot more often than that. Whether it’s wasting a lefty reliever on a hitter who won’t hurt you no matter who’s pitching, or building a lineup that invites tactical hammering from the opposition, or choosing the wrong pinch-hitter for the situation, managers routinely show weakness in this area, an area of the game that should be second nature.

Bill James said it 20 years ago, and I’ll keep harping on it today: if you’re going to hire someone to run your $200 million operation on a daily basis, make sure he’s mastered the control panel first. Make him play a couple hundred games of Strat, or whatever simulation you choose. Sims aren’t perfect replications of baseball, but the things they do teach are important, and applicable every single day in every single game. Bruce Bochy could have used that kind of experience last night. The Giants won in spite of him.

[RedsManRick]

But what's his Won-Loss record as a manager and do his players like him? I mean, seriously, let's focus on things that matter.

[lollipopcurve]

But what's his Won-Loss record as a manager and do his players like him? I mean, seriously, let's focus on things that matter.

Do managers make strategic errors? Yes. Do errors such as Bochy's happen often? No. Does making an error such as Bochy made make him unqualified to manage? No (after all he was 4 division titles and a pennant to his credit).

Would a scribe, stat geek or table game dork (Sheehan's language) be able to make 100% correct strategic in-game decisions all the time? Highly doubtful. Were a scribe, stat geek or table game dork able to make 100% correct strategic in-game decisions all the time, would this make him or her (or it, the software) qualified to manage, given no professional on-field experience? Under no circumstances.

Mistakes happen. Leave it to vultures/green flies like Joe Sheehan to alight on them when they do.

[dabvu2498]

Here's the real problem wih the Giants... I've never even heard of any of the players involved in this scenario.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by dabvu2498

Here's the real problem wih the Giants... I've never even heard of any of the players involved in this scenario.

C'mon. Everyone knows Brian Bocock. Get with it man!

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Do manager make strategic errors? Yes. Do errors such as Bochy's happen often? No. Does making an error such as Bochy made make him unqualified to manage? No (after all he was 4 division titles and a pennant to his credit).

Would a scribe, stat geek or table game dork (Sheehan's language) be able to make 100% correct strategic in-game decisions all the time? Highly doubtful. Were a scribe, stat geek or table game dork able to make 100% correct strategic in-game decisions all the time, would this make him or her (or it, the software) qualified to manage, given no professional on-field experience? Under no circumstances.

Mistakes happen. Leave it to vultures/green flies like Joe Sheehan to alight on them when they do.

I guess it's unreasonable to expect somebody at the top of the profession, getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars (if not millions), managing millions of dollars worth of assets to get the basics of strategy right.

This wasn't a going against the percentages sort of thing that we often complain about. This was just stupidity. I don't know of too many guys in that position in other industries who could make similar mistakes repeatedly with no reprocussion.

Imagine if that was a error in a contract that went out and they lost a deal over it. You win some and you lose some, sure. But do you think the CEO would just shrug his shoulders?

And your argument makes no sense. Nobody (in this thread) is saying that the ability to make strategic choices correctly makes you qualified to be a manager. Obviously there are other qualifications. However, an inability to make the strategic choices correctly should disqualify you. And yet it doesn't...

But, to be fair, I recognize nobody's perfect. Before Sheehan gets too high on his horse, he should posit some alternatives. Who's out there who is otherwise qualified but doesn't make those sorts of errors. I assume they exist, but I certainly couldn't point to any who don't already have a job. (Davey Johnson doesn't want one...)

[bucksfan2]

I am confused by this article, mainly because I have never of any of the players involved. So let me get this straight. The Bochy makes a defensive substitution with a lead in the game. The Giants blow the lead and then have a runner on second with two outs. Bochy, in the eyes of the author, pinch hits for the wrong player. The pinch hitter is intentionally walked and an inferior hitter is forced to hit with runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

Is this truely a poor tactical decision or this a columnist with a bias against Bochy?

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

I am confused by this article, mainly because I have never of any of the players involved. So let me get this straight. The Bochy makes a defensive substitution with a lead in the game. The Giants blow the lead and then have a runner on second with two outs. Bochy, in the eyes of the author, pinch hits for the wrong player. The pinch hitter is intentionally walked and an inferior hitter is forced to hit with runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the bottom of the ninth.

Is this truely a poor tactical decision or this a columnist with a bias against Bochy?

Any person worth their salt knows exactly what the opposing managers reaction would be. Bochy used his best pinch hitter to gain an extra runner that could not possibly effect the game's outcome, leaving a worse hitter at the plate to driven in the run than had he not pinch hit at all. How can this be construed as anything but.

Yes, Joe Sheehan jumped on him with both feet, as he is want to do. That doesn't make Bochy's move any less stupid.

[bucksfan2]

Well let me put it this way. That may have been the worst baseball article I have ever read. Outside of the bay area it is completly irrelivant because he does not disclose that he wasted his best pinch hitter in a walk situation. Nor does he bring up anything about the offensive merits about the hitters he pinch hit for or the one who eventually had the key at bat.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by dabvu2498

Here's the real problem wih the Giants... I've never even heard of any of the players involved in this scenario.

The real problem is... I was watching that game.

I got to find a good book.

As for Bruce not being perfect... let me know when the perfect manager shows up.. I won't hold my breath.

[lollipopcurve]

Yes, Joe Sheehan jumped on him with both feet, as he is want to do. That doesn't make Bochy's move any less stupid.

It's a story, I assume, because a major league manager rarely makes a move this bad. Or, could it possibly be a story because Joe Sheehan can make someone look bad? Yeah, what is completely typical is that the author decided to devote his column to trashing a major league manager who has been generally successful in his profession. He might as well be writing gossip columns. At the very least, I hope Sheehan wears one of those powdered judge's wigs when he's hacking away on the keyboard.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Well let me put it this way. That may have been the worst baseball article I have ever read. Outside of the bay area it is completly irrelivant because he does not disclose that he wasted his best pinch hitter in a walk situation. Nor does he bring up anything about the offensive merits about the hitters he pinch hit for or the one who eventually had the key at bat.

Let me fill in the gaps.

The hitter, Rajai Davis:
.270/.353/.363 in the majors (204 AB)
.305/.375/.407 in the minors

The pinch hitter, Fred Lewis
.298/.379/.417, in the majors (168 AB)
.282/.381/.420, in the minors

The guy on deck, Brian Bocock
.241/.311/.334, in the minors (never above A+)

The game is tied with the winning run on second base and first base open, as Joe quite clearly discloses. If you don't know that this situation begs for a walk to get to a weaker hitter, I promise you that you aren't a baseball prospectus subscriber. Further, this wasn't in a mass media publication like ESPN or Yahoo. It was on a pay-for-content baseball analysis site where an author has a reasonable assumption that his audience doesn't need their hand held on who the good and bad players are. Brian Bocock's presence on the Giants roster has been a running point of critique. Joe is preaching to the choir here, he knows it, and the article was written accordingly.

[westofyou]

BTW not every battle in a baseball season was and is about that game or that at bat. With a 40 year old SS with bad wheels and a pretty terrible team the Giants should find out of the A Ball SS can pull his weight, they'll probably need him more than that win last night in the long run.

[lollipopcurve]

BTW not every battle in a baseball season was and is about that game or that at bat.

amen

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by westofyou

BTW not every battle in a baseball season was and is about that game or that at bat. With a 40 year old SS with bad wheels and a pretty terrible team the Giants should find out of the A Ball SS can pull his weight, they'll probably need him more than that win last night in the long run.

Deleted -- misinterpreted woy's point. My bad.

Though I really doubt Bochy was hoping they'd walk the pinch hitter so that Bocock could get that AB...