Votto's Power Potential

[membengal]

A quick question/observation. I know a bunch of folks had some spirited discussions on what Votto's power potential might be in Cincy in the minor league forum last year and in this forum during spring training. I was on the side of 25-30 someday. I guess my wonder is this...does that 466 foot monster blast a few nights ago put people who were skeptical of his power potential more at ease? That's a massive shot for most humans, even most humans in the major leagues. Seems to me a guy with that kind of raw power can reach the seats fairly consistently.

I am also loving his approach at the plate right now. He goes with pitches very confidently, and is using the opposite field to great effect. We will see homeruns to left, shortly, I believe.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by membengal

A quick question/observation. I know a bunch of folks had some spirited discussions on what Votto's power potential might be in Cincy in the minor league forum last year and in this forum during spring training. I was on the side of 25-30 someday. I guess my wonder is this...does that 466 foot monster blast a few nights ago put people who were skeptical of his power potential more at ease? That's a massive shot for most humans, even most humans in the major leagues. Seems to me a guy with that kind of raw power can reach the seats fairly consistently.

I am also loving his approach at the plate right now. He goes with pitches very confidently, and is using the opposite field to great effect. We will see homeruns to left, shortly, I believe.

FWIW, 25 to 30 sounds about right to me.

[membengal]

And, if he can reach those levels, it would be the first time the Reds have produced a 1b from the system to do that since, when? Tony Perez (and, yes, I realize he started out at 3b, but, since he ended up at 1b, I am counting it)? To be specific, annual 25-30 hr power from Votto would be nothing to be dismissive of, with an extra bonus of having actually been developed from within the system.

Is my mind blanking on another 1b who rose through the system with that kind of power in the last 40 or so years?

(Not counting Casey and his one 25 hr season since he was acquired and didn't come through the system)

[marcshoe]

The only other significant first baseman I can think of who came through the system was Driessen, and he never hit 20.

[cumberlandreds]

Originally Posted by tixe

The only other significant first baseman I can think of who came through the system was Driessen, and he never hit 20.

Nick Esasky hit 21 and 22 in 85 and 87. But he may not be considered that significant.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Lee May, signed by the Reds in 1961. 39 homers in 1971. A cornerstone of the trade with the Astros after the 1971 season. Not too shabby.

[membengal]

There it is, Lee May. Good call, knew I was blanking on somone.

So, Votto is potentially the first 1b since May to have the kind of power we associate with the position that has come up through the farm system. That covers 40+ years. Oof. And, helpful for quantifying what he may turn into.

[IslandRed]

If last year's MLB-wide home run dropoff wasn't a fluke, a legitimate 25-to-30 homer guy won't be anything to sneeze at. There were only a couple of dozen big-leaguers who hit 30 or more last year.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by tixe

The only other significant first baseman I can think of who came through the system was Driessen, and he never hit 20.

Perez... he was always a 1st baseman.

Even when he played third.

Dave Revering - Nope... the hype was there.

[Benihana]

Here's an interesting question: Who has more power potential- Votto or Encarnacion?

I think they're both easily capable of hitting 30. I see Votto putting up Garret Atkins-type numbers (career .303 BA, 28 HR/year.) And I see Edwin as a slightly worse Aramis Ramirez (career .283 BA, 28 HR/year.)

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Here's an interesting question: Who has more power potential- Votto or Encarnacion?

I think they're both easily capable of hitting 30. I see Votto putting up Garret Atkins-type numbers (career .303 BA, 28 HR/year.) And I see Edwin as a slightly worse Aramis Ramirez (career .283 BA, 28 HR/year.)

I guess I see Votto and EE as basically lefty/righty bookends. Offensively both look to be about 2.5 wins above replacement. Votto probably has a little more raw power.

[Spring~Fields]

I am excited about Votto and his potential. Is it too soon to be excited or am I setting myself up with a guy like Votto. Votto appears to be the answer that the Reds have needed for a long time at 1B and that we fans have yearned for.

I just hope he doesn’t flop later. I don’t think he will, am I wrong?

Seems like a guy like Votto could take some of the burden off of Dunn and Griffey by producing when they are having their off days.

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

If last year's MLB-wide home run dropoff wasn't a fluke, a legitimate 25-to-30 homer guy won't be anything to sneeze at. There were only a couple of dozen big-leaguers who hit 30 or more last year.

That drop off seems to be continuing this year, a bit more in the AL than NL.
If they started testing blood, we'd probably see it fall off a cliff.

[RedsManRick]

There were a total of 9 1B in MLB who hit 30+ HR last year. But I'd prefer to look at SLG. Below is all 1B who qualified for the batting title last year, sorted by slugging.

RK	PLAYER		TEAM	SLG
1	Carlos Pena	TAM	0.627
2	Prince Fielder	MIL	0.618
3	Ryan Howard	PHI	0.584
4	Albert Pujols	STL	0.568
5	Mark Teixeira	TEX/ATL	0.563
6	Derrek Lee	CHC	0.513
7	Lance Berkman	HOU	0.510
8	Carlos Guillen	DET	0.502
9	Adrian Gonzalez	SDG	0.502
10	Todd Helton	COL	0.494
11	Justin Morneau	MIN	0.492
12	Dmitri Young	WAS	0.491
13	Paul Konerko	CHW	0.490
14	Ryan Garko	CLE	0.483
15	Casey Kotchman	LAA	0.467
16	Adam LaRoche	PIT	0.458
17	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	0.453
18	Carlos Delgado	NYM	0.448
19	Aubrey Huff	BAL	0.442
20	Kevin Millar	BAL	0.420

That group averages around .500 SLG. If you expand the list to include guys with fewer ABs it just gets uglier. If Votto can slug .500, that puts him solidly in the average power for a 1B group. Anything above that and he just moves up the list, but I think that's a fair target for him.

Here's are a few projections from PECOTA. Think of them as best case, likely, and worst case scenarios.

90th: 639 PA, .308/.388/.562, 39 2B, 33 HR
Mean: 616 PA, .280/.360/.499, 33 2B, 27 HR
10th: 492 PA, .240/.321/.411, 22 2B, 17 HR

Now consider that he's young and likely to improve. PECOTA has him around .285/.365/.510 with 30 HR through 2014. Obviously those projections will change baesd on what he does this year, but he looks like a keeper to me.

[OnBaseMachine]

I see Votto as a 25-30 homerun guy and 30+ doubles. With his ability to hit to the other field with power and patient approach, he should be a perennial .300+ hitter with an OBP around .375+.