Cliff Lee Anyone? - Page 2 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Topcat · 12-05-2007, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benihana

still no one has answered my question- what do you think the Reds would have to give up to get Cliff Lee?

On some other blogs and sites it appears that Cleveland has no intention of giving him away cheap.

REDREAD · 12-05-2007, 02:21 PM

One advantage of trading with Cleveland is that they might accept prospects which have a longer timeline to the majors.

As someone else said, they are so loaded, that they are one of the few teams willing to trade a guy like Lee without expecting ML ready talent in return.

I don't expect the Indians to give Lee away. Shapiro is a smart GM and knows about the shortage of pitching.

It's worth pursuing, IMO. I will keep beating the drum that as of now, we only have 3 starting pitchers. That's a recipe for disaster if the team wants to contend next year.

Bill · 12-05-2007, 03:09 PM

We've discussed Lee 3-4 times already. Look at his stats. There are certain trends that are not encouraging. He also was not that good after being sent down to AAA, gave up quite a few walks if memory serves. He also has about 11 million left on his deal. It is also widely understood in Cleveland that Lee is not the brightest bulb in the pack. Did not take well to coaches tinkering with his delivery (in spite of his numbers dropping).

That all said, he is a lefty, has had success in the past and is relatively inexpensive to someof the deal being handed out. That and the dearth of decent pitching is why Shapiro won't give him away for nothing though the price is muchlower than it would have been a couple years ago.

I do like Sowers and Laffey though as left-handers.

KronoRed · 12-05-2007, 03:29 PM

I wouldn't trade anyone of real value for him

Benihana · 05-12-2008, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I have no interest in Lee. None at all.

bump

: (and props to REDREAD for his call on this one)

PuffyPig · 05-12-2008, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benihana

bump

: (and props to REDREAD for his call on this one)

In fairness to FCB, 95% of posters felt the same way.

There was nothing in Lee's resume over the least few years to suggest he was a good match for GABP. It's just one of those things.

*BaseClogger* · 05-13-2008, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

In fairness to FCB, 95% of posters felt the same way.

There was nothing in Lee's resume over the least few years to suggest he was a good match for GABP. It's just one of those things.

From a statistical perspective yes, but it was probably a case similar to Brandon Phillips: pure scouting...

Benihana · 05-13-2008, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

From a statistical perspective yes, but it was probably a case similar to Brandon Phillips: pure scouting...

Yep, which makes it all the more interesting that old-school READREAD nailed this one while the SABR-guys on the board whiffed. Just an observation.

Dom Heffner · 05-13-2008, 09:44 AM

Cliff Lee is not this good. He's either the best pitcher pitcher in major league history or he's about to be introduced to the phrase "correction to the mean."

A .212 BAPIP is simply not sustainable. It's called luck and I don't want to trade for players who are lucky.

Pass.

Falls City Beer · 05-13-2008, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benihana

Yep, which makes it all the more interesting that old-school READREAD nailed this one while the SABR-guys on the board whiffed. Just an observation.

I don't think REDREAD is out-and-out "old school." At least not avowed.

I think the lesson here is that a player's career isn't a "narrative." Meaning it doesn't follow a Freytag pyramid of inevitable rise and collapse.

There are more things in heaven and earth.... Or something.

(Incidentally, I *seriously* doubt that most of Lee's success is "luck." I think most of it is skill).

Dom Heffner · 05-13-2008, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Yep, which makes it all the more interesting that old-school READREAD nailed this one while the SABR-guys on the board whiffed. Just an observation.

The SABR people never rule out luck. Luck can last an entire season. Stats can indicate one thing and for a period of time a player can outplay his past.

But the reason I love stats, the law of large numbers, and all that jazz is that when you look at a large sample size (5 weeks of Cliff Lee's magical singing road show is not a large sample size) Cliff Lee will be Clliff Lee. It can't be otherwise. One poster said it best: there's was nothing to ever suggest he was this good, meaning pretty much just that. He isn't.

I guess he could have developed some new pitching style, but a 19.5 KK/BB ratio is not sustainable (in fact it's already fallen from that, I believe).

5 weeks of box scores do not anoint him as Cy Young.

Falls City Beer · 05-13-2008, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

Luck can last an entire season. .

I think this can be true for a reliever. I think it's nonsense for a starter.

Dom Heffner · 05-13-2008, 09:56 AM

FCB- his peripherals indicate luck. They do.

A pitcher cannot expect only 21 percent of the balls put in play against to fall in as hits when much, much better pitchers aren't having the same type of success.

I will bet anyone on here an opening day ticket to next year's game a GABP that Cliff Lee does not sustain a .212 BAPIP the entire season.

Falls City Beer · 05-13-2008, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dom Heffner

FCB- his peripherals indicate luck. They do.

A pitcher cannot expect only 21 percent of the balls put in play against to fall in as hits when much, much better pitchers aren't having the same type of success.

I will bet anyone on here an opening day ticket to next year's game a GABP that Cliff Lee does not sustain a .212 BAPIP the entire season.

Sure it's going to correct. That's not what I'm saying--but even "corrected" his numbers are going to be very, very good. His K/BB ratio is ungodly, and that is unequivocally not luck.

*BaseClogger* · 05-13-2008, 09:58 AM

Dom, there is no denying his improved K/BB...

12-05-2007, 02:21 PM	#17
REDREAD Where's my chair? Join Date: Apr 2000 Posts: 19,790	Re: Cliff Lee Anyone? One advantage of trading with Cleveland is that they might accept prospects which have a longer timeline to the majors. As someone else said, they are so loaded, that they are one of the few teams willing to trade a guy like Lee without expecting ML ready talent in return. I don't expect the Indians to give Lee away. Shapiro is a smart GM and knows about the shortage of pitching. It's worth pursuing, IMO. I will keep beating the drum that as of now, we only have 3 starting pitchers. That's a recipe for disaster if the team wants to contend next year. __________________ Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2012 AND 2013! Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

12-05-2007, 03:09 PM	#18
Bill Member Join Date: Sep 2000 Posts: 2,267	Re: Cliff Lee Anyone? We've discussed Lee 3-4 times already. Look at his stats. There are certain trends that are not encouraging. He also was not that good after being sent down to AAA, gave up quite a few walks if memory serves. He also has about 11 million left on his deal. It is also widely understood in Cleveland that Lee is not the brightest bulb in the pack. Did not take well to coaches tinkering with his delivery (in spite of his numbers dropping). That all said, he is a lefty, has had success in the past and is relatively inexpensive to someof the deal being handed out. That and the dearth of decent pitching is why Shapiro won't give him away for nothing though the price is muchlower than it would have been a couple years ago. I do like Sowers and Laffey though as left-handers.

12-05-2007, 03:29 PM	#19
KronoRed The Lineups stink. Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: West N. Carolina Posts: 55,342	Re: Cliff Lee Anyone? I wouldn't trade anyone of real value for him __________________ Go Gators!

05-13-2008, 09:44 AM	#24
Dom Heffner Potential Lunch Winner Join Date: May 2001 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 5,666	Re: Cliff Lee Anyone? Cliff Lee is not this good. He's either the best pitcher pitcher in major league history or he's about to be introduced to the phrase "correction to the mean." A .212 BAPIP is simply not sustainable. It's called luck and I don't want to trade for players who are lucky. Pass. __________________ If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

05-13-2008, 09:56 AM	#28
Dom Heffner Potential Lunch Winner Join Date: May 2001 Location: Tampa, FL Posts: 5,666	Re: Cliff Lee Anyone? FCB- his peripherals indicate luck. They do. A pitcher cannot expect only 21 percent of the balls put in play against to fall in as hits when much, much better pitchers aren't having the same type of success. I will bet anyone on here an opening day ticket to next year's game a GABP that Cliff Lee does not sustain a .212 BAPIP the entire season. __________________ If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

05-13-2008, 09:58 AM	#30
BaseClogger WOOOOO!!! Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 6,077	Re: Cliff Lee Anyone? Dom, there is no denying his improved K/BB... __________________ "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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