The Reds can't offer a long-term contract to a player that is hitting .229 in June!

[thorn]

Hondo, can you comprehend what I am trying to say? If so, tell me what you think I just said in the previous post.

[Nuxhall41]

Originally Posted by Griffey012

His OBP is almost .400 and his OPS is about .900. I was once a longtime Adam Dunn basher, hater, whatever you call it. Once I finally let go and realized he is what he is and is going to give you 40+bombs, OBP around .385 I have began to realize he is better than I thought. Batting average is the most overrated stat in baseball. They get is to score runs, how do you score runs, first you get on base. Batting average is accounted for in OBP. 2nd you need to get the runners on base in to score.

Dunn currently has gotten 26 rbi in 54 ab's with RISP while batting .222. His BA is the same with RISP and nobody on. This tells one thing, pitchers are afraid of him and pitch him selectively with first base empty. This explains the high OBP and low batting average. His batting average with runners on, which would include every situation with a RISP and runner on first is .240 with an OBP of .406, he gets more pitches to hit.

He is also a career .278 hitter out of the 2 spot. Which may be concluded to this being the only time he has a feared hitter batting behind him. Im sure it was alway Jr behind him in the 3 spot. Say what u want about Griffey, ppl still fear him.

I say we try to get Dunn for 4yrs 50-55 million range, but let's not overpay and strap us financially.

I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

[Griffey012]

Go after starters? Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Thompson, that is 7 right there who can fill 5 spots. 5 of those are young and talented. Do you really want to spend that 12 million or so one a Derek Lowe? 20 million on Sabathia? Or severely overpay for A.J. Burnett's inconsistencies?

We lose a lot of the books and it would be nice to have 1 thumper in the heart of a very talented young lineup. And as far as his defense, you have to admit he has improved it dramatically, i dont cringe near as much thinking he will drop any given fly ball.

[Hondo]

Originally Posted by thorn

Hondo, can you comprehend what I am trying to say? If so, tell me what you think I just said in the previous post.

I comprehend very well... Your point was that Starting Pitching Alone wasn't the answer...

But it was a pointless point, as you mentioned Pitching and Defense was what we needed... So, you included Pitching in your argument... I figured you were going to come with morre than "Pitching & Defense"... I have to give you cred though, you didn't put 1/5 of the Payroll in there... Or did you? And you didn't address anything I was asking about with all the money saving this team will have with the Contracts dropping????

Even though there are some raises coming for players...

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Nuxhall41

I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

Statistics don't lie. They are a measure of production. By watching Dunn, many Reds fans get frustrated by his strikeouts and inability to hit the ball the opposite way. That frustration makes you ignore the good things he does. How is he unintelligent? His defense has certainly improved to the point where he is an adequate LF. He is streaky, yes, but please fill me in on how you plan on replacing 100 runs, 100 RBI, 40 HR's, and a .900 OPS?

It's not Dunn's fault that Dusty is miserable at constructing lineups. Put Dunn at the top of the order and you will realize how valuable he is to this team.

Never has a guy done so much and gotten so little love for it than Adam Dunn.

[Griffey012]

Originally Posted by Nuxhall41

I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

So basically you are saying walks are not important, getting on base is not important. A .300 BA and a .330obp is better than a .230ba and a .400 obp. Getting on base and driving in runs is the key to baseball offensively. I am not a sabermetric fellow and havent even posted them in my argument.

And you win by scoring more runs than the other team. Right now we have 2 below average to average defensive outfielders, one of those (griffey) will most likely be gone. Jay Bruce will be a good right fielder, get a solid defender and center and Dunn's defense isn't a big deal and definitely doesn't outweigh his offense. What makes Dunn so inconsistent and not fundamentally sound. He is a discplined hitter, doesn't typically make bad baserunning mistakes (Freel) and seems like a good teammate. Not to mention, he has some really consistent career numbers.

[Hondo]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Statistics don't lie. They are a measure of production. By watching Dunn, many Reds fans get frustrated by his strikeouts and inability to hit the ball the opposite way. That frustration makes you ignore the good things he does. How is he unintelligent? His defense has certainly improved to the point where he is an adequate LF. He is streaky, yes, but please fill me in on how you plan on replacing 100 runs, 100 RBI, 40 HR's, and a .900 OPS?

It's not Dunn's fault that Dusty is miserable at constructing lineups. Put Dunn at the top of the order and you will realize how valuable he is to this team.

Never has a guy done so much and gotten so little love for it than Adam Dunn.

Homer, where would this team be without his 16 Homers 41 RBI, 56 BB, and 36 runs...

I mean look at his runs... The guys hitting behind him have been pathetic... Save for Votto... But the real culprit has been Edwin!

[Griffey012]

And also Nuxhall, i want to know you response to Dunn never having a hitter behind him, and how he produces in the 2 spot with Griffey behind him.

[Nuxhall41]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Statistics don't lie.

For numerous reasons, they most certainly can - especially if there is no situational component to a given statistic.

[Griffey012]

Rob Deer and Dave Kingman are 2 of the more famous "all or nothing" hitters. They have similar career averages as done, but OBP's of .320 and .300, way lower than .380. He does more than hit homeruns.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Hondo

Homer, where would this team be without his 16 Homers 41 RBI, 56 BB, and 36 runs...

I mean look at his runs... The guys hitting behind him have been pathetic... Save for Votto... But the real culprit has been Edwin!

Not sure I get what you are saying. Are you agreeing with me that Dusty is to blame for batting him in the 5 hole?

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Nuxhall41

For numerous reasons, they most certainly can - especially if there is no situational component to a given statistic.

When a season is as long as 162 games, statistics are a great measure of production, and certainly don't lie. I agree that there are some factors of production that don't go into statistics, but if you look at Dunn's production over the last 4 seasons (like 650 games), you can't argue that he has been a consistent run producer, and an asset to this offense.

[Griffey012]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml

Scroll to the bottom and look at the similar players through age 27 as Adam Dunn, tell me you wouldnt want those guys in the middle of your lineup.

[Nuxhall41]

Originally Posted by Griffey012

What makes Dunn so inconsistent and not fundamentally sound. He is a discplined hitter,

Come on.

[Griffey012]

Originally Posted by Nuxhall41

For numerous reasons, they most certainly can - especially if there is no situational component to a given statistic.

Well then what are you basing off of, "gut" feelings? Or simply the way everyone else does things? Or the way baseball is supposed to be played? Those have less value then baseball statistics.