Drew Stubbs....

[TRF]

And you are ignoring that Ellsbury outperformed Stubbs at every level, skipped rookie ball altogether and did it a year younger. Your pointing to a hot month, I'm looking at his professional career where he's failed to hit at Billings, Dayton and now Sarasota. 2 months of hitting .200 with no power means very little to me. His OBP will not stand up to that when better pitchers realize he won't chase bad pitches but can't hit good ones.

[membengal]

OK, I'll play:

His OBP will stand up as he faces better pitchers and refines his batting eye further.

Here's what's fun: who knows who is right or wrong? Only time will tell. But there is no way that he is a bust at this point, no more so than he is a certain all-star at this point. He remains an unknown. And, frankly, as much an unknown as other guys like him were at the same points of development. Ellsbury. Maybin. Mateo. Whothe-h-ever you want to put in. But what we know for sure is that he has not bombed out at this point, and, in fact, has made strides.

I continue to roll my eyes at the excessive doom-saying with regard to Stubbs. We won't know until we see more. What is the rush to shovel dirt on him? Just to be the first cool kid to say I-was-right-back-in-the-day?

[TRF]

Originally Posted by membengal

OK, I'll play:

His OBP will stand up as he faces better pitchers and refines his batting eye further.

Here's what's fun: who knows who is right or wrong? Only time will tell. But there is no way that he is a bust at this point, no more so than he is a certain all-star at this point. He remains an unknown. And, frankly, as much an unknown as other guys like him were at the same points of development. Ellsbury. Maybin. Mateo. Whothe-h-ever you want to put in. But what we know for sure is that he has not bombed out at this point, and, in fact, has made strides.

I continue to roll my eyes at the excessive doom-saying with regard to Stubbs. We won't know until we see more. What is the rush to shovel dirt on him? Just to be the first cool kid to say I-was-right-back-in-the-day?

Gosh, this IS fun! Why the rush to homer what is obviously a disappointing 1st rd. pick? He can't hit good pitches in the low minors. His "refined" batting eye won't help him make any more contact. He's not a good "hitter". period. he might be a decent "batter" in that he can lay off a bad pitch, but he's eerily similar to Dunn in that he has contact issues on pitches within the zone. The difference being Dunn at the same level had a better eye and the benefit of monster power.

Guys like you and doug kill me. It's actually ok to point out that Stubbs was a bad pick, and that though he has SOMEWHAT progressed (IMO even that is in doubt) he hasn't progressed to nearly what his slot says he should have by now. Younger guys taken in later rounds and drafts are passing him by. Frazier, Dorn and Valaika in the Reds system alone.

[membengal]

What makes him a bad pick? Because he has not advanced on YOUR timetable?

Doug speaks for himself, and I don't appreciate being lumped in with him (nor he with me, I would suspect). He does fine on his own and certainly doesn't need my muddled thinking weighing him down.

My views are my own. And the pounding of guys on this site is excessive as all get out at times, and at way too early a juncture. We have no idea if he was a good or bad pick until we see how his career pans out. It could very well be he was an awful pick. See? I know that too! But we can't know yet if he was.

Where I differ strongly with you and others is on that last point. The returns we have are still early and rather inconclusive. Enough there to provide ammunition to your side, TRF (He's absolute dog****! Mark my words!) and Doug's side (he's going to a really good pro. Watch and see!)

Me? I am simply saying there is enough good that I don't see why the rush to "bust" him and enough bad that I understand the skepticism. My point is that you don't have to look far, at all, to find comps for his numbers from guys who have been good pros. I grant that you don't have to look far, either, for comps from guys who absolutely sucked eggs. But those two things, taken together, simply tell me that he is still a work in progress, an unknown, but one with some promise still. Is that really having a homer view? Wow, if so.

And AA is the right place for him, in my estimation.

And now, back to sweeping generalizations based on gut opinions! This is fun!

[TRF]

I agree that AA is where he needs to be. If he shines, great If he fails well, that won't be much of a shock. I think he has value as a 4th OF. I just don't think a 4th OF is a good value for a 1st rd. pick. His timetable to the majors, right now looks like late 2009 at the best or 2010. that's a crappy timetable for a guy drafted in the first rd. at age 22.

[dougdirt]

And a timetable not being met (specifically if we are talkling about one set forth by anyone that isn't the franchise) doesn't make one a bust, nor does it really change his status as a prospect. When he was drafted we all knew he had warts and man, did I hate the pick at the time. My exact words were 'anyone but Stubbs and I am happy'. Well, I was in the boat with about 99% of you guys on that one. However that doesn't mean I won't look at the progress he has made and say its not good enough. Drew has gotten better at each level he has played. He was a very raw toolsy guy. Now he is getting better as he moves up each level. His walk rate is up and his line drive rate has doubled from just last season while keeping his contact rate the exact same. His 'stat' line doesn't look like the improvement is there, but when you look further into it, Drew has certainly improved his overall game.

[crazyredfan40]

Originally Posted by TRF

Ellsbury at Low A at age 21: .317BA .418OBP .432SLG .850OPS

Drew Stubbs at Low A at age 22: .270BA .364OBP .421SLG .785OPS

The difference between the two is history at Low A, Ellsbury skipped Rookie ball altogether, and sample size at High A. Stubbs OPS for May and June combined is under .700. Can he turn it around? maybe, but I'd promote him to AA quick, hope he catches fire and package him before he turns back into the free swinging, no contact pumpkin he is.

Can you get it through you that he was hurt last year...He played a whole season with turf toe...

You ever had turf toe? Those numbers are just fine with a player with turf toe...

Do you pay attention to Doug's numbers?

I don't know why we have to rehash this once a week...

You think he is a bust, he didn't play good the last two seasons why he has been hurt...This season his numbers are solid for a hitters league...

THere are holes in his swing, but who is to say that moving up the ladder when guys stay closer to the plate, and the strike zone gets tighter, he will continue to work walks and be able to get balls that will be closer to the zone...

Also it is not all about his glove...Yeah guys that hit and play D are great...The thing is Stubbs would play a better CF than anyone we have at the big league level...If he continues to walk he can make things happen with this speed...

The LD rate is up this year...If he can work on the contact issues just a little, we are looking at a very good player for us in 2 years...

[johngalt]

Originally Posted by membengal

What makes him a bad pick? Because he has not advanced on YOUR timetable?

What makes him a bad pick is pretty simple:

Tim Lincecum.

Both college players who entered the draft with plenty of talent and some question marks.

One is already pitching like an ace in the majors.

The other is still experiencing plenty of growing pains in High A ball.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by crazyredfan40

Can you get it through you that he was hurt last year...He played a whole season with turf toe...

You ever had turf toe? Those numbers are just fine with a player with turf toe...

Do you pay attention to Doug's numbers?

I don't know why we have to rehash this once a week...

You think he is a bust, he didn't play good the last two seasons why he has been hurt...This season his numbers are solid for a hitters league...

THere are holes in his swing, but who is to say that moving up the ladder when guys stay closer to the plate, and the strike zone gets tighter, he will continue to work walks and be able to get balls that will be closer to the zone...

Also it is not all about his glove...Yeah guys that hit and play D are great...The thing is Stubbs would play a better CF than anyone we have at the big league level...If he continues to walk he can make things happen with this speed...

The LD rate is up this year...If he can work on the contact issues just a little, we are looking at a very good player for us in 2 years...

Was he injured in May? Is he injured now?

[camisadelgolf]

I just want something cleared up: Drew Stubbs plays well-above average defense at a defense-first position, has blazing speed, and his OBP is consistently over .360 (and is currently at .372 in a very-pitcher-friendly league, despite his unlucky BABIP), and he's a bust?

If your answer is 'yes', if it weren't for Lincecum, would he still be a bust?

[princeton]

Originally Posted by johngalt

What makes him a bad pick is pretty simple:

Tim Lincecum.

exactly

Drew owns one GM's scalp already.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

If your answer is 'yes', if it weren't for Lincecum, would he still be a bust?

He is not a bust(yet) but if you compare him to Valaika, Turner and Frazier it isn't good.

College players drafted that early have an expectation to move quickly. A lot of people on this board have mentioned Alonso being ready by 2010.

Let me ask this, if Alonso is in High A ball halfway through the 2010 season will you be disappointed?

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by flyer85

He is not a bust(yet) but if you compare him to Valaika, Turner and Frazier it isn't good.

College players drafted that early have an expectation to move quickly. A lot of people on this board have mentioned Alonso being ready by 2010.

Let me ask this, if Alonso is in High A ball halfway through the 2010 season will you be disappointed?

To answer your question on Alonso, it all depends on the circumstances. If he spends 2008 in Billings and/or Dayton, 2009 in Dayton/Sarasota, and 2010 in Sarasota/Chattanooga, I don't think it's necessarily a terrible pace. However, I don't think the speed of advancement through the system is a fair way to judge if a draft pick is a bust or not.

For the record, if you compare just about any minor leaguer, no matter what round he was drafted in, to Valaika, Turner, and Frazier, it still doesn't look good.

The fact that Stubbs was drafted out of college, if anything, lowers my expectations for the player. It tells me that he has a lower ceiling but a higher likelihood of reaching it. Drew Stubbs is playing solidly and is on pace to be an above-average center fielder, which is what I think the Reds expected from him.

[lollipopcurve]

College players drafted that early have an expectation to move quickly.

True. But the expectation is founded on the notion that all of these players are more or less the same. Stubbs' skill set makes him a bit unusual. He's a defense first, OBP guy with excellent speed and real contact issues. He's moving slowly because they don't want his bat to fall so far behind the level of competition that he has a serious crisis of confidence. So much of the game is between the ears.

This debate is old, but I'm going to add what I've said before several times, because I do think Stubbs continues to receive a fair amount of unjust criticism.

If you value defense up the middle -- something the Reds have been sorely lacking for a long time -- you should value Stubbs as a prospect, albeit a prospect who requires patience. If you don't value Stubbs because he's not Tim Lincecum, you'll never be satisfied, so have fun with that.

Drew owns one GM's scalp already.

Ridiculous. Not only did the drafting of Stubbs, in and of itself, have nothing to do with Castellini wanting Jocketty over Krivsky, it was Chris Buckley who made the pick. All very obvious. Yet here is Stubbs, somehow to blame for it all.....

[flyer85]

If Stubbs, as a college player, was not expected to move quickly it is a sure sign he should not have been drafted that high.