Drew Stubbs....

[M2]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I'll reiterate my original point. There's only one statistic in Stubbs' case you need to look at: his OBP. If he maintains it where it is, voila--he's in GABP center field.

The problem is given his BA and SLG deficiencies, that OB could be in for a tumble against better pitchers. You very well could be looking at .230 BA, .310 OB player and then, voila, he's a fringe player. He's right now carrying just enough OB in high A. Just enough tends to turn into too little at higher levels.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I'll reiterate my original point. There's only one statistic in Stubbs' case you need to look at: his OBP. If he maintains it where it is, voila--he's in GABP center field.

I don't disagree. but he doesn't strike me as a guy that's going to carry a decent OBP without a power increase.

[HokieRed]

Have to begin by saying I'm glad there's this conversation since the game is as dull as usual with no chance of our coming from behind by 3 runs. Anyway, an interesting though obviously very limited comp that suggests how tough Sarasota is on some hitters. Votto: .256/.330/.425/.755. Previous year was .905 in MWL and, at the end of the season, .945 at Potomac--small sample, 84 AB's, but, interestingly, in a High A league generally regarded in my part of the country (Carolina league territory) as a higher A league than FSL. More important, .955 next year at Chattanooga. He was two years younger than Stubbs and I'm not asserting any direct comparison, just pointing up how much the FSL and Sarasota hurt Votto. One thing this may mean is that we really can't assess how much improvement Stubbs has made this year yet: it may be (let's hope) greater than the numbers show. We may not be able to assess it rightly until he gets to Chatt.

[lollipopcurve]

We may not be able to assess it rightly until he gets to Chatt.

It's going to take time and faith with Stubbs. The organization has to believe in the tools, and just as importantly, in the person. Back in 06, the year he was drafted, I said it might take 2-3 years for us to know about the bat -- so, another year to go. And that may still be too soon.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Have to begin by saying I'm glad there's this conversation since the game is as dull as usual with no chance of our coming from behind by 3 runs. Anyway, an interesting though obviously very limited comp that suggests how tough Sarasota is on some hitters. Votto: .256/.330/.425/.755. Previous year was .905 in MWL and, at the end of the season, .945 at Potomac--small sample, 84 AB's, but, interestingly, in a High A league generally regarded in my part of the country (Carolina league territory) as a higher A league than FSL. More important, .955 next year at Chattanooga. He was two years younger than Stubbs and I'm not asserting any direct comparison, just pointing up how much the FSL and Sarasota hurt Votto. One thing this may mean is that we really can't assess how much improvement Stubbs has made this year yet: it may be (let's hope) greater than the numbers show. We may not be able to assess it rightly until he gets to Chatt.

Votto had to take the first pitch of every at bat that year. Which likely had something to do with it. You are still spot on with your overall point though, the FSL kills guys. The list of guys who killed the ball before and after the FSL is a mile long. The fact that Stubbs has improved his overall stat line and his ratio of line drives, walks, strikeouts and steals is quite impressive.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

He's not hammering anything now.

Hammering.... maybe not to the point of home runs, but he does have 23 XBH which ranks among the Minor League leaders in the system. He has a very high line drive rate. So while he may not be 'hammering' the ball, he is 'stinging' the ball with some authority which can be noted with his 26% line drive rate.

Triples have almost nothing to do with power, and everything to do with speed, park, and defense. Right now Stubbs has plenty of speed. Minor league defense is suspect as a whole, and the FSL plays as a pitchers league. Big parks make for a lot of flyball outs, but doubles down the line can be triples for a burner. He won't hit triples at the GABP.

Triples don't have anything to do with power? Sure, speed helps, but those are still doubles for guys like Sean Casey or David Ross who can barely beat me in a race. As for not hitting triples in GABP, Brandon Phillips has 5 of them this year (2 at home, 3 on the road) and he isn't nearly as fast as Stubbs.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Hammering.... maybe not to the point of home runs, but he does have 23 XBH which ranks among the Minor League leaders in the system. He has a very high line drive rate. So while he may not be 'hammering' the ball, he is 'stinging' the ball with some authority which can be noted with his 26% line drive rate.

You're missing the forest for the trees. He has a .407 SLG. That's lower than such hot prospects as Chris Heisey, Zack Cozart, Justin Reed, Logan Parker, Eric Eymann, Michael Griffin and Cody Strait.

We're now into a third season of being told how he's hitting the ball with authority even though it never translates into anything. He's 23. He played top level college ball. He's in A ball. I don't want to hear about how he's got secret power that you can see if you squint real hard. The Drew Stubbs who is currently playing baseball does NOT have power. He is a fairly weak hitter who struggles to hit the ball with anything approaching consistent authority. Maybe that will change in the future. I hope it does, but don't try to sell me that he's hitting for power when it's a plain as the nose on your face that he isn't.

[M2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

The organization has to believe in the tools, and just as importantly, in the person.

No it doesn't. In fact, that's specifically something it does not have to do. What the organization must do is accurately assess the player it's got on its hands. That assessment could be that Stubbs stands a very good chance of making the improvements he needs to advance and be an effective player. Or it could be that Stubbs is too much of a project and it's time to make him someone else's problem.

But at no juncture will a chorus of kumbayas suffice.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

You're missing the forest for the trees. He has a .407 SLG. That's lower than such hot prospects as Chris Heisey, Zack Cozart, Justin Reed, Logan Parker, Eric Eymann, Michael Griffin and Cody Strait.

We're now into a third season of being told how he's hitting the ball with authority even though it never translates into anything. He's 23. He played top level college ball. He's in A ball. I don't want to hear about how he's got secret power that you can see if you squint real hard. The Drew Stubbs who is currently playing baseball does NOT have power. He is a fairly weak hitter who struggles to hit the ball with anything approaching consistent authority.

None of those guys can play defense like Stubbs at such an important position either. Heck, I like Logan Parker, but the guy is a first baseman, who is 23 and in the MWL. He better be outslugging a centerfielder in the FSL. I don't care what you want or don't want to hear. The dude has a line drive rate this year of 26%. Thats hitting the ball hard, consistently. Line drives don't turn into home runs too often, but they do turn into hits about 75% of the time. Only 1 person in the FSL has a better line drive rate and its Juan Francisco at 27%. No one bested 26% there last year for the full season (granted some of the better guys were likely moved up). He is one of the top 10 line drive hitters in the minor leagues right now. Its not translating to HR power, but lets not try and say he isn't hitting the ball hard. He is.

[lollipopcurve]

No it doesn't. In fact, that's specifically something it does not have to do. What the organization must do is accurately assess the player it's got on its hands. That assessment could be that Stubbs stands a very good chance of making the improvements he needs to advance and be an effective player. Or it could be that Stubbs is too much of a project and it's time to make him someone else's problem.

But at no juncture will a chorus of kumbayas suffice.

Relax.

What I mean is that they have to believe he has the capacity to learn, to adapt, to deal with failure and to understand his strengths and weaknesses as a player. These are human traits first and foremost, with an important but not necessary application to baseball, not the traits of a robot with a disconnected swing.

If they believe in those things -- and if they are right -- he's got a chance to make it as a Red. If they don't, he doesn't.

Depersonalize it all you want, perhaps it makes you more comfortable, but your perspective will remain short on subtleties, in my opinion.

[Scrap Irony]

Nah, that line drive percentage is a mirage. Because they're hit by Stubbs and he's not Lincecum and Lincecum was drafted by the Giants and the entirety of the Redszone cognoscenti wanted him and even an idiot like Castellini/ Jocketty/ Krivsky/ various Reds zone posters could see Stubbs is a poor choice, he must not be able to hit a ball hard.

Or something like that.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

None of those guys can play defense like Stubbs at such an important position either.

So what? Seriously. We're talking about power and how Stubbs doesn't have it. I don't give a rat's hindquarters about his defense as far as this subject is concerned and I'll add that every OF had better have a robust offensive game or his defense won't keep him in a job for very long.

Aside from that, Cozart plays quality defense.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Heck, I like Logan Parker, but the guy is a first baseman, who is 23 and in the MWL. He better be outslugging a centerfielder in the FSL.

You're the one who brought up the bogus metric that Stubbs has more EBHs than many guys in the system. I'm just pointing out that your non-logic fairly quickly leads you to the unpleasant realization that complete non-prospects like Parker are flashing more power than the faux lusty bat of Drew Stubbs.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't care what you want or don't want to hear. The dude has a line drive rate this year of 26%. Thats hitting the ball hard, consistently.

No, it's not, as his .407 amply demonstrates. We've been over this before, but LD% is all kinds of dopey. The first thing that stat should tell you when you put into perspective with his overall performance is that Stubbs is hitting weak liners, not drilling the ball. I don't have the figures in front of me, but I'd bet you Ozzie Guillen had a good LD% when he played. You want to tell me he had power?

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Line drives don't turn into home runs too often, but they do turn into hits about 75% of the time. Only 1 person in the FSL has a better line drive rate and its Juan Francisco at 27%. No one bested 26% there last year for the full season (granted some of the better guys were likely moved up). He is one of the top 10 line drive hitters in the minor leagues right now. Its not translating to HR power, but lets not try and say he isn't hitting the ball hard. He is.

Wow, are you trying to undercut your own argument? Are we talking about the Juan Francisco with 7 more HR than Drew and a 69 point SLG advantage despite the fact that he's almost three years younger than Drew? Because that's about the most clear cut case of the qualitative differences between two players with similar LD% numbers as you could wish for.

You seem to be under the misconception that there's a point to debate here. There isn't. Stubbs has a .407 SLG. In no universe is that emblematic of a guy who's hitting the ball hard on a consistent basis. This is simply a matter of you refusing to admit to the facts in front of you.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

So what? Seriously. We're talking about power and how Stubbs doesn't have it. I don't give a rat's hindquarters about his defense as far as this subject is concerned and I'll add that every OF had better have a robust offensive game or his defense won't keep him in a job for very long.

Drew Stubbs MLE for the MWL would put his slugging percentage at .473. Its the league, not Drew. Is he ever going to hit 25 HR? Probably not. That doesn't mean he can't or won't hit for some power because he has 3 HR in the FSL at age 23. Ryan Braun hit 7 HR in 230 at bats in the FSL at age 22. He went to AA and hit 15 there in in 4 more at bats. The next year he hit 44 HR between AAA and MLB. How did 7 HR one year in 230 AB's in the FSL translate to 44 a year later in AAA and MLB? Magic, thats right. The FSL makes guys look like they aren't overly good hitters a whole lot. Magically when they leave they become good hitters again. So we can continue pretending that the FSL doesn't diminish power numbers if we want, but I really don't want to play that game because its not too realistic.

Aside from that, Cozart plays quality defense.

True, I glazed over him. He is playing in a much more hitter friendly league. His MLE from Dayton to Sarasota wouldleave his slugging percentage at .364.

You're the one who brought up the bogus metric that Stubbs has more EBHs than many guys in the system. I'm just pointing out that your non-logic fairly quickly leads you to the unpleasant realization that complete non-prospects like Parker are flashing more power than the faux lusty bat of Drew Stubbs.

XBH is a bogus metric? Hmm, when did those stop counting? Here is to hoping everyone turns into Norris Hopper. Stubbs is getting his share of XBH's (up from last year btw) in a league that squanders power. That is my point. Its a valid one whether you want to believe it or not.

No, it's not, as his .407 amply demonstrates. We've been over this before, but LD% is all kinds of dopey. The first thing that stat should tell you when you put into perspective with his overall performance is that Stubbs is hitting weak liners, not drilling the ball.

Please explain to me how you can tell he is hitting weak liners. I would love to hear it.

Wow, are you trying to undercut your own argument? Are we talking about the Juan Francisco with 7 more HR than Drew and a 69 point SLG advantage despite the fact that he's almost three years younger than Drew? Because that's about the most clear cut case of the qualitative differences between two players with similar LD% numbers as you could wish for.

Not at all. The difference between the two players is that Francisco has more HR power and he hits more fly balls. Francisco is a guy who can legitimately hit 35 HR in the major leagues. Drew Stubbs isn't that guy and no one is claiming he is. However trying to say that because they have similar line drive rates means its a weak thing to bring up because Francisco has more power than him isn't logical.

You seem to be under the misconception that there's a point to debate here. There isn't. Stubbs has a .407 SLG. In no universe is that emblematic of a guy who's hitting the ball hard on a consistent basis. This is simply a matter of you refusing to admit to the facts in front of you.

You seem to be under the misconception that 26% line drive rates are weak unless you are hitting home runs and that the Florida State League doesn't have any real depression of power numbers at all despite that facts that show otherwise. You seem to be refusing to admit to the facts in front of you.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Triples don't have anything to do with power? Sure, speed helps, but those are still doubles for guys like Sean Casey or David Ross who can barely beat me in a race. As for not hitting triples in GABP, Brandon Phillips has 5 of them this year (2 at home, 3 on the road) and he isn't nearly as fast as Stubbs.

no they have almost NOTHING to do with power. Of the top 20 guys in MLB in triples RIGHT NOW 4 are in double digits in HR's. It's speed, park, and the opposing defense. period.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

no they have almost NOTHING to do with power. Of the top 20 guys in MLB in triples RIGHT NOW 4 are in double digits in HR's. It's speed, park, and the opposing defense. period.

They don't have to do with HR power. But they are still doubles for everyone in the league and doubles are still valuable power to have, especially at a weak hitting position like C, SS or CF.